Technical and Market Analysis by Vistabrokers

[Vistabrokers]

EUR / USD. Technical vs. Fundamental

Fundamental factors (there is still no agreement on Greece) hinder a full formation of a graphic reversal pattern «Head-n-Shoulders». Meanwhile, an upside potential remains.

If purchases were made in accordance with the signal of the graphic "neck line" breakthrough, it is recommended to hold the position.

Volatility: 67%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: weak

USD / CAD. Near Dividing Line

In the course of the next growth wave within boundaries of a wide upward channel quots have reached its upper border. This level is very close to multi-year highs set in March of this year. In the past few days, market participants could not determine their preferences, and, given the very weak news background today, it is doubtful that in the next few hours anything will be decided. At the same time, the technical picture leads to the conclusion, using indicators to determine the future trading direction.

Receiving reversal signals, it is recommended to open short positions with the aim of achieving the opposite border of the channel. A Stop loss should be placed above the high, at 1.2780.

Volatility: 65%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: weak

 

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Talks on Iran Are Close to Completion

On Monday, oil prices on the world market are falling in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that the pressure on the "black gold" has the fact that Iran and six world powers have almost come to an agreement on Iran's nuclear program. If negotiations completes in a favor of Tehran, it will cause sanctions lifting, and after it Iran will make every effort to restore its position in the oil market.

Amid this August futures for Brent have declined during morning trading by $ 1.89 to $ 56.84 per barrel, then went back to $ 57.70 a barrel and soon resumed decline. WTI has dropped by 90 cents to $ 51.84 a barrel.

The agreement on Iran may be concluded today. This event, in addition to the slowdown of the Chinese economy, which we have seen in recent months, support traders disturbance about oversupply in the oil market.

 

[Vistabrokers]

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

The order to sell from 1157.97 has activated on the fractal down level breakthrough. There are no additional signals to add yet. We continue to hold the short position and closely monitor changing market conditions.

Volatility: 27%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: weak

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

The order to buy from 122.87 has activated. There are no additional signals to add yet. Recall that a current upward momentum brings into question the past few weeks downward trend.

Volatility: 61%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: weak

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

We have fixed a small loss on the long position from 1.1127 at 1.1067, and we go into a wait state. According to System rules, we put pending breakthrough orders on the nearest fractal levels. Thus, we will start to buy at 1.1214 and sale at 1.0989.

Volatility: 75%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

We have entered the market to buy from 1.5551. There was no significant changes since that, but we should not forget that tomorrow are expected the important data on inflation in the United Kingdom.

Volatility: 34%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: weak

 

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 07/14

Tuesday is full of important publications, among which are the data on inflation and a speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney in the UK, retail sales data in the United States and indexes from the German ZEW institute. Euro zone finance ministers will meet today.

8:30 *** Consumer Price Index - June (UK)
8:30 ** Core CPI - June (UK)
8:30 ** Retail Price Index - June (UK)
8:30 ** Producer Price Index Input - June (UK)
8:30 ** Producer Price Index Output - June (UK)
8:30 ** Producer Price Index Output Core - June (UK)

Strong influence on the market (GPB). Important statistics may significantly affect the British pound in particular, the data on the consumer price index, which is one of the benchmarks for the Bank of England, which is expected to hint at monetary policy tightening in the future. It is expected that inflation in June has risen by 0.1%.

9:00 *** ZEW Economic Sentiment - July (Germany)
9:00 ** ZEW Survey (Current Situation) - July (Germany)
9:00 ** ZEW Economic Sentiment - July (euro zone)
9:00 ** Industrial Production - May (euro zone)

Strong influence on the market (EUR). Statistics is rather important, although the euro is now much influenced with the situation in Greece, so that the market may ignore the data. However, we note that the analysts expect the decline of ZEW indexes for Germany and the euro zone as a whole.

9:15 ** Treasury Select Committee Hearings - July (UK)
9:15 *** Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Speaks - July (UK)
9:15 ** BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe Speaks - July (UK)
9:15 ** MPC Member Ian McCafferty Speaks - July (UK)
9:15 ** MPC Member David Miles Speaks - July (UK)
11:45 ** Treasury Select Committee Hearings - July (UK)
11:45 *** Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Speaks - July (UK)
11:45 ** BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe Speaks - July (UK)

Strong influence on the market (GPB). At the hearings, representatives of the Treasury special committee and the Bank of England report on progress over time and answer questions from parliamentarians. The head of the Bank of England and some members of the Monetary Policy Committee will speak.

12:30 *** Retail Sales - June (USA)
12:30 *** Core Retail Sales - June (USA)
12:30 ** Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Gas - June (USA)
12:30 ** Import Prices - June (USA)
14:00 ** Business Inventories - May (USA)

Strong influence on the market (USD). Retail Sales, adjusted for seasonality and working days, but without price changes. Strong deviations from the forecast can move markets, as well as other data published today. In June it is expected growth, but less strong than the previous month.

 

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Euro Fell after Long-Awaited Decision on Greece

Protracted negotiations of Greece and its creditors, a technical default, closed banks ... all of this recently was keeping markets in suspense, making quotes to forget about technical patterns and surrender into the hands of fundamental ones. On Monday, the "Greek saga" has reached the final - Athens with international creditors agreed on a three-year financial bailout program.

Vista Brokers analysts say that the euro has responded to a long-awaited decision with a decline against the US dollar. Firstly, the decision was put in prices earlier, and secondly, when the Greek question was decided the topic of the Fed's interest rate hike came to the fore again.

So, Greece will receive 86 billion euros under the program of financial assistance during the next three years. Such a statement was made by German Chancellor Angela Merkel during a press conference following the summit of the euro zone countries, which has lasted 17 hours. Athens will receive financial assistance in return for serious pension reform, tax increases, mass privatization, the reform of the product, the pharmaceutical industry and more. By 15 July the government should take 15 measures (laws), and by July 22 - 22. If the Greek Parliament starts to pass new laws, the country will receive the first 7 billion euros until July 20. The market continues to closely monitor the course of events.

 

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Oil Continues to Fall

During Tuesday's Asian trading, oil prices continued to decline. Vista Brokers analysts note a strong pressure on the market, that has negotiations on Iran, which are coming to an end, as well as expected release of crude oil reserves data in the United States.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange August futures for WTI crude oil have declined today by 0.80% to $ 51.78 per barrel. Meanwhile, on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Brent contracts for August delivery have reached a session high of $ 59.14 a barrel, before dipping to $58.17, down 0.81 or 1.38%earlier.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will report today about the increase / decrease of crude oil inventories, and the US Department of Energy will do it tomorrow. Last week, the data could surprise investors and analysts. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories in the USA have risen for the week ended July 3 by 400,000 barrels instead of the expected decline by 500 000. Thus, the volume of reserves has reached 465.8 million barrels, the highest level in the last 80 years. Growth "black gold" production and the development of shale deposits in the United States are among the reasons that led to oversupply in the oil market. That is why oil traders are watching the situation so closely.

As for Iran, on Monday afternoon, the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that no agreement on the country's nuclear program will be concluded before the expiry of the deadline. Recall that the deadline for negotiations between Tehran and six world powers was postponed three times in recent weeks. However, White House representatives noted that that "genuine progress," had been made in the negotiations in spite of the further delays.

Completion of negotiations on Iran, followed by international sanctions lifting is a bearish signal for the oil market, as Tehran said that 30 million barrels are in reserves and ready to go for export. Although the country will take time to restore its former position, for the oil market it means oversupply increasing.

 

[Vistabrokers]

EUR / USD. Goodbye Head, Goodbye Shoulders

An agreement on Greece gave impetus to the growth of risky and potentially high-yielding assets such as the US dollar, which has completely broken the bright idea of ​​the possible potential realization of the reversal pattern «Head-n-Shoulders». But there is another side of the coin, which gives us a reason to quickly take advantage of the situation, as the oppositely directed movement, given broken expectations of investors, can be very strong. Thus, many forecasters from investment banks have already revised the scenario for the euro in favor of its further decline.

It is recommended to open short positions on a breakthrough of the support level 1.0914.

Volatility: 72%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

USD / JPY. Ad Astra

Quotes have confidently passed the resistance line of the descending price channel of the last few weeks. The reason was the improvement in sentiment towards risk, which gives reason to expect a further strengthening of the US currency against the yen. Note that the current recovery is carried out with confidence and bulls "see" the support line from which they are buying very well. It should be noted that a lot will be decided today, after the USA reports on the pace of sales in the retail sector. Forecasts are quite positive.

It is recommended to hold long positions (if any), and also to be ready to buy on the closest resistance breakthrough at 123.72 with a target of 125.84, where is the multi-year high for the pair.

Volatility: 64%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate

 

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Gold Declines prior to US Statistics

On Tuesday, gold is declining. Vista Brokers analysts note that all investors' attention today is focused on the data on retail sales, which will be published later in the USA. Now, when the Greek problem is solved, the focus of the market is on further recovery of the US economy and the Fed's rate hike. Demand for risky assets is growing.

During European trading, gold futures for August delivery on the Comex have fallen by 0.15% to $ 1,153.70 per troy ounce. A day earlier, the gold sank to the lowest level since March at $ 1,144.80 before closing at $ 1,155.40 (-0.22%). Silver for September delivery has fallen today by 0.83% to $ 15.32 per ounce. On Monday, the metal has lost 0.16% to close at $ 15.45 an ounce.

Today in the United States will be published data on retail sales and business inventories, and forecasts are rather optimistic. Tomorrow the Fed's head will speak ahead of the Senate Banking Committee. If today's statistics is strong and Yellen's comments are optimistic, gold can update lows.

 

[Vistabrokers]

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

We continue to hold the short position from 1157.97. In recent 24 hours we have received signals to add to the position from the "red zone", as well as from the AC indicator - "zero crossing" and "2 red bars below zero." Meanwhile the market remains calm enough, but it is likely that players will activate soon, namely after today's retail sales data release in the United States.

Volatility: 25%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

We continue to hold the position to buy from 122.87, but the current value of the red Alligator's line (122.51) does not guarantee us a positive outcome. Thus, the market is consolidating after local highs breakthrough, but gives us the opportunity to add volume in accordance with System signals - we have "green zone" signals and "2 green bars above zero" on the AC.

Volatility: 64%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

After a positive decision of European authorities on Greece a downward trend in the single currency continues (at least if we take near-term), and this has involved us to the sale position after fractal down level breakthrough (1.0989). However, judging by the dynamics of the pair, the market has not completely determined with the direction, which means that we should be ready to respond to a possible reversal and the position closure.

Volatility: 70%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

The position to buy from 1.5551 is no longer relevant after one of the bars closure below the red Alligator's line. Nevertheless, market participants have made a new attempt to storm recent highs – a breakthrough of the fractal level at 1.5589.

Volatility: 40%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: strong

 

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 07/15

Wednesday is very saturated with important statistics that will be published throughout the day. China has reported on GDP for the 2nd quarter and industrial production in June. Also a press conference was held at the National Bureau of Statistics. In Japan, the central bank has adopted a decision on the interest rate and the annual growth of the monetary base.

8:30 *** Claimant Count Change - June (UK)
08:30 ** Claimant Count Rate - June (UK)
8:30 ** Unemployment Rate - June (UK)
8:30 ** Average Earnings Index - June (UK)
8:30 ** Employment Change - June (UK)

Strong influence on the market (GPB). Portion of statistics on the UK labor market will attract investors' attention. Forecasts are optimistic: it is expected, that the number of applications for benefits declines, earnings grow and the unemployment rate remains at the previous level - 5.5%. Stronger data may stimulate the growth of the British pound.

12:30 *** Producer Price Index - June (USA)
12:30 ** Core PPI - June (USA)
12:30 ** Empire State Manufacturing Index - June (USA)

Strong influence on the market (USD). Another piece of US data may cause active market fluctuations. Strong data are able to maintain confidence that the Fed will raise the interest rate in the foreseeable future. Forecasts are optimistic.

12:30 *** Manufacturing Sales - May (Canada)
13:00 ** Existing Home Sales - June (Canada)

Strong influence on the market (CAD). Manufacturing sales can serve as an early indicator of the acceleration or deceleration of economic activity. The growth is favorable for the currency.

13:15 ** Capacity Utilization - June (USA)
13:15 ** Industrial Production - June (USA)

Moderate influence on the market (USD). Analysts expect both indicators to increase in June. Now the market closely monitors the statistics published in the United States, as it can provide signals about the Fed's interest rate hike.

14:00 *** BOC Monetary Policy Report - Q3 (Canada)
14:00 *** Overnight Rate - July (Canada)
14:00 *** BOC Rate Statement - July (Canada)
15:15 *** BOC Press Conference - July (Canada)

Strong influence on the market (CAD). From the Bank of Canada market is not waiting for any surprises: the rate should remain at 0.75%. However, the monetary policy report, as well as the accompanying statement may shed light on the future plans of the Bank of Canada.

14:00 *** Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Testifies - July (USA)
18:00 ** Beige Book - July (USA)
19:00 ** FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks - July (USA)

Strong influence on the market (USD). Speech of Janet Yellen is one of the most important events of the day, as after the adoption of the long-awaited decision on Greece the question of the Fed's rate hike is in focus. Optimistic comments of Fed's head, as well as of Federal Open Market Committee members will support the confidence of investors that the US central bank will raise the rate.