Technical and Market Analysis by Vistabrokers

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 07/17

Friday will be saturated with statistics, especially during the American trading session, when some interesting data will be published in Canada and the United States.

12:30 *** Consumer Price Index - June (Canada)
12:30 *** Core CPI Bank of Canada - June (Canada)

Strong influence on the market (CAD). It is expected a slight increase in the consumer price index in the first summer month, although given the recent rate cut by the Bank of Canada, even if the growth is stronger than expected, it will hardly support the Canadian dollar.

12:30 *** Building Permits - June (USA)
12:30 ** Housing Starts - June (USA)
12:30 *** Consumer Price Index - June (USA)
12:30 *** Core CPI - June (USA)
12:30 ** Consumer Price Index - June (USA)
12:30 ** Core CPI - June (USA)

Strong influence on the market (USD). This week was very busy in terms of statistics, particularly for the USA, where the large portion of important data was published. Among Friday's statistics Vista Brokers analysts recommend to pay most attention to the consumer price index. The strong data may support market confidence that the Fed's rate hike is coming.

14:00 *** UoM Consumer Sentiment Index (Prelim) - July (USA)
14:00 ** Stanley Fischer (Fed Vice Chairman) Speaks - July (USA)

Strong influence on the market (USD). The UoM consumer sentiment index is predicted to rise, and the positive data may provide an additional support for the dollar. Fisher comments may also be interesting for the market, in particular, the vice chairman of the US central bank can confirm Fed's intention to raise the rate.

 

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 07/20

On Monday, the economic calendar is almost empty, so the market volatility will unlikely be high. Vista Brokers analysts note that Japan this day celebrates the Marine Day, and the market does not work.

6:00 * Producer Price Index - June (Germany)

Weak impact on the market (EUR). Monthly change in PPI. It may be an early signal of inflation trends change or their confirmation.

8:00 * Euro-Zone Current Account - May (euro zone)

Weak impact on the market (EUR). The balance of payments includes the movement of goods and services as well as capital inflows and outflows. The growth of the rate or forecast exceeding are favorable for the euro.

8:30 ** Public Sector Net Borrowing - June (UK)
8:30 * Public Sector Net Borrowing ex Banking Groups - June (UK)
8:30 * Public Finances - June (UK)
8:30 * Central Government NCR - June (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Net borrowing shows the difference between expenses and income of the central and local governments and government agencies. Costs rising is negative for the currency.

12:30 ** Wholesale Sales - May (Canada)

Moderate impact on the market (CAD). Changes in sales in wholesale stores is a good leading indicator of activity since later this will affect consumer and / or industrial activity.

 

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Fundamental Background Supported Dollar

On Friday, the dollar has increased to the highest in the last month and a half level relative to other major currencies. Vista Brokers analysts say that the American currency was supported with fresh statistics from the USA, which gave another argument to expect the Fed's rate hike in the near future. Recall that the head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen has recently confirmed that the rate will be increased this year, but only if the statistics satisfy the regulator.

Over the past week data were multi-directional, but in general, the situation in the US economy looks optimistic, especially when compared with the euro area with its debt crisis and a slowing Chinese economy. On Friday was published data on changes in the consumer price index, and as forecasts had predicted, in June the index rose by 0.3% mom and by 0.1% yoy.

Also note that the data on the real estate market, namely building permits and housing starts in the United States came out much better than expected. A fly in the ointment was only the index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, which in July has dropped from 96.1 to 93.3 vs. 96.0. Nevertheless, the dollar index has increased by 0.20% to 97.97 (maximum from June 2). The EUR / USD has finished the day at around 1.08287.

 

[Vistabrokers]

EUR / USD. Bears Prepare for New Challenges

During the last week the US dollar has significantly strengthened its position against the European currency. Thus, investors preferred to increase purchases of the currency amid fairly aggressive statements of Fed's head Yellen and upbeat statistics from the USA. At the moment, the pair has reached the important support level (3 months low), and here can determine a vector of trading for coming days and even weeks.

Today, in the absence of important statistical releases, the technical picture will draw more attention. Thus, in the case of the above mentioned support level breakthrough at 1.0820, a downward momentum could accelerate, and the twelve-year minimum set in March (1.0460) can become a target for short positions.

Volatility: 43%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: low

GOLD. Generosity without Example

Today's gold sales look truly epic even after the already large-scale quotes reduction due to the breakthrough of technical support levels we have mentioned in previous reviews. The effect of the mass stop orders execution below $ 1,140 per ounce, has given a downward momentum so strong acceleration, that today investors witnessed the achievement of the 1064 level. So, today gold has lost about 6.5%. Vista Brokers analysts note, that events are developing so rapidly that a large part of the decline has already been neutralized from the recent months downward channel line.

It is recommended to hold short positions opened on a 1140 level breakthrough and be ready to add volume using retracements.

Volatility: 23%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: low

 

[Vistabrokers]

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY, EUR/USD

A decline of USD/JPY seems to be quite serious.

Vista Brokers analysts alert about possibility of the pair's sharp and uncontrolled falling.

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