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The 4 Anchor System

Discussion in 'Personal Trade Journals' started by kasim ijelu, Feb 21, 2012.

  1. kasim ijelu

    kasim ijelu Private, 1st Class

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    4 HR Anchor Strategy KISS (Keeping it Stupidly Simple )

    In my opinion the 4hr time frame is the most powerful of all the time frame for swing traders and it stands in between the daily and higher time frames and the intraday time frame acting as a steering wheel of the ship as we navigator through the markets.
    I've tried to do my best and combine the best tools that describe the 4hr Anchor Swing strategy. Using a triple screen trading system)

    What you need: ( these can be Retrieved from mq4 website on your meta trader platform. if not email me and i'll send it to you.)
    Multiple time frame stochastic called stoc-2b or stoc
    Multiple time frame Fractal ( from Forex Factory brilliant website
    AutoPivots
    Mac/D
    Moving average 8DEMA (Daily exponential moving average )
    Moving average 50 DMA (Daily moving average )


    Daily Bullish stochastics will CASCADE UP WITH 4 HR STOCH OR WAITE FOR 4 HR FRACTURAL SUPPORT SIGNAL. CONFIRMED MOVE ABOVE 50 % OR WAITE FOR 4HR FOR STOCH RETRACEMENT WITH DAILY STOCH STOCHASTICS UP.
    Daily Bearish stochastics will CASCADE DOWN WITH 4 HR STOCH OR WAITE FOR 4 HR FRACTURAL RESISTANCE SIGNAL. CONFIRMED MOVE BELOW 50 % OR WAITE 4HR FOR STOCH RETRACEMENT AS THE DAILY IS DOWN.
     Buying a currency is only confirmed with a Daily 8 DMA CROSS OVER
    Earlier entries are ‘4HR PRICE CROSS OVER 8 DMA
     4hr Bullish Price Cross below 8DeMA, But above 55DMA, correctively bullish ,
     4hr Bullish Price cross over 8DeMA and above 55DMA, probability increases to the upside.
     4hr Bullish Stochastics turning from an oversold position SYNCH/ rising with 1hrly.

     On the 1hr Entry Frame apply M&M ( Market Maker Technique) 4hr Stochastic leads. Allow 1hr to finish cycle and become over-sold. and will come meet the yellow 4hr Line up or they will both move together and rise
    to the Daily Green line UP
    4hr Support Fractural shown on the 1hr time frame (Green) With an Hrly buy signal to confirm synchronization. These are the best set ups Call True Swing............
     Entry screen......................
    1st wait for Candle Stick Confirmation, Closure of price above 8DEMA,
    High volume Trend bullish .
    4hr fractural and hourly buy signal brilliant (True swing)

    Bearish Daily 4hr Anchor Swing Strategy. Note: Ideally we want Mr Price to stay below 55DMA.
    Therefore observe, Patiently, Marking Daily Support and Resistance .

     Selling a currency is confirmed with a Daily Price crossover 8 DMA CROSS OVER
     Earlier entries are ‘4HR PRICE CROSS OVER, 8DMA’
     4hr Bearish Price Cross above 8DeMA, But below 55DMA, correctively Bearish ,
     4hr Bearish Price cross over 8DeMA and below 55DMA, probability increases to the down side.
     4rh Bearish stochastics bearish from and overbought position synchronization with falling hrly

     Entry Screen

    1hr Time Frame Apply M&M ( Market Maker Techique ) 4hr Stoch leads 1hr. Allow 1hr to finish cycle and become over brought and will come meet the 4hrs yellow line Down
    4hr Resistance Fractural shown on the 1hr time frame . Hrly Sell signal to confirm synchronization. These are the best set ups to swing trade............................................. ..................
    1st wait for Candle Stick Confirmation, Closure of price under 8DEMA, high volume
    Trend bearish .......4hr fractural and hourly sell signal brilliant
    Weekly leads Daily leads 4hrs, 4hrs leads 1hrly and if they out of sychronixation no trade. Market may be in consolidation . syncronsation error.

    Note technique can be applied to the daily time Frame
    Skills
    Harmonics
    Eillot Wave analysis
    Candle stick identification
    patterns i.e Trangle and flags
    Poseidon (Andrewd Pitch fork trading)
    Hope this helps:
     
    #1 kasim ijelu, Feb 21, 2012
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2012
  2. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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    Sounds interesting. Can you post some screenshots of potential trade setups and how they went?
     
  3. kasim ijelu

    kasim ijelu Private, 1st Class

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    Search through my Notes and i found an audusd feb15/02/2012 set up
    audusd set up 4hrs  15022012.

    Before
    Ok looking at the 4hr chart Mr price has failed to close above the 55DMA. but yet is above the 8DMA.. according to the rules if we are below the 55DMA but above the 8DMA we are correctively Bearish.
    look closely at the Multiple time frame stochastic (Yellow Line is the daily Stochastic rising on the 4hr time frame but still bearish) because it is below the 50 line meaning we are still bearish.. also notice that the 4hr stochastic ( white) is overbought, suggesting a decline down, a least for the next 3 to 4hrs
    However take note the(daily yellow Line)it cascading up. so the we need to bear in mind that the swing down could be quick sharp and brief in the next 4hr hours
    We now look for bearish set ups on the Hrly time frame, Below

    audusd tech notes 1hr 150212.

    ok Above is the 1hr chart. If you look closely Mr Price has failed to close above the hrly 8DEMA. IN place we have a 4hr fractal resistance or swing high (green)which is where you will place your stops.
    Here we apply the The Market maker technique which means you are the maker maker, as they are buying you are selling. Which can be quite heart throbbing and nerve racking.
    Look Closely and Notice as we push down below the 55DMA on the hrly time frame so is the 4hr yellow on the hrly time frame from an overbought position confirming the trade and easing your mind.
    once again The 4hr yellow is also falling or cascading down from an over-brought position. but remember we are above the 50 Line so the move can be sharp and quick. from a 4hr perspective.
    ( here you have two time frames in your favor) the Anchor 4hrs and the 1hrly time frame synchronizing which is what we look for.
    Your target will be the 200 DMA/Bollinger bands on the hrly time frame around that 1.0650.

    4hr after
    audusd set up 4hrs after  15022012.
    hrly after
    audusd set up hly after  15022012.

    Notice we were warned of the drop and the possible rally way in advance. which we can now position for also using the 4hr strategy.
    Hope i have explained myself ok please let me know

    Thanks for Taking the time and reading My Post.
     

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  4. kasim ijelu

    kasim ijelu Private, 1st Class

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    4hr Anchor Unconfirmed set up Eur/USD

    Unconfirmed set up Eur/USd from the 29/01/2012 to the 2/03/2012

    Ok According to the rules we are below the 8DEMA on the 4hr time frame but above the 55DMA on the 4hrs time frame this means we are correctively Bullish. untill other wise. so we trader in anticipation of a bounce .

    News
    Bernanke’s Testimony to the House Financial Services Committee

    Posted: 29 Feb 2012 07:04 AM PST

    Bernanke’s Testimony to the House
    Us Expansion uneven and modest
    GDP in 2012 likely to grow at pace of 2nd half 2011
    Fed accounts for magnitudes of deviation from goal
    Positive developments in the labor market
    Inflation and Employment mandates complementary
    Fall in unemployment more rapid than expected
    Gas prices will temporarily push up inflation
    Job market remains far from normal
    Fed follows balanced approach on dual mandate
    Long term expectations suggest subdued inflation
    Especially important to evaluate economic data
    Unemployment elevated and price outlook subdued
    Critical challenges remain for eurozone

    News a little mixed so we are expecting a bounce but very cautions
    Before:(At the time) 29/02/2012
    4hrs

    eurusd set up4hr  29022012.
    and then

    eurusd  tech notes 01022012.
    At the time 4hrs stochastics became over sold daily Yellow Line was flat at the 50 line. The eurusd was also below the weekly pivot @ 1.3371 but at major support @ 1.33054
    are we corrective or will we continue the slid down.

    1hrly view
    View attachment 4950
    4hrs and the hourly are both oversold . i was anticipating a rise in on the hourly time frame (stocahstics) white stochastics) and also for the 4hr yellow stochastics to follow and confirm trade above the 50 line. in the chart below
    this started to take form.

    View attachment 4952
    The trade starts to take form as the hourly rise and the there is a shift to the postive side with 4hr yellow line ( However, trade is still not fully confirmed) This might be my 1st mistake. ( not waiting for confirmation)

    eurusd set up 1hrs cross tech notes 01022012.

    After 1/03/2012

    lets check the news

    OUTLOOK FOR EUR HINGES ON GREEK BOND SWAP


    The euro continued to weaken against the U.S. dollar as Wednesday’s liquidity injection by the European Central Bank hangs over the currency. Over the past week there has been one consistent message from all official agencies involved with Greece and that is all decisions hinge upon the results of the Greek bond swap. In fact, the main reason why the EUR/USD consolidated today is because is investors know that there will be no additional progress for Greece until the bond swap results are in. The European Union made it clear in their meeting today that they will be holding off on finalizing their approval for a second Greek bailout package until after the bond swap window closes March 9th. The IMF will wait to decide their contribution level when the results are out as well and this morning the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said that a credit event could still occur at a later date, which would be after the PSI. Everyone is waiting to see how many private sector bond holders voluntarily participate in the bond swap. If the swap falls short, Greece will most likely activate their collective action clauses and use legal means to force all qualifying bondholders to accept the haircut. At that time, the EUR/USD will fall and fall sharply because ISDA will be forced to re-review payout on Greek credit default swaps and if they do not authorize payments, they risk losing all credibility. However there is still a very small chance that the voluntary bond swap will be a success but the odds are very slim. Nonetheless, no one wants to take the steps that must follow a Greek default until they are absolutely sure that one has occurred and unfortunately legally requiring bond holders to accept a haircut changes the terms of the bonds and is the quintessential definition of what constitutes a default.


    4hrs view

    eurusd  tech notes 01022012.

    This morning, ISDA decided that no default insurance needs to be paid out on Greece, but this is in no way a final decision. Like the rest of Europe, they are kicking the can down the road by saying that "the situation is still evolving" and "a credit event could occur at a later date." Declaring a credit event would restore the credibility of credit default swaps but could also cause a large disruption in the markets. As a result, it is far smarter for ISDA to declare that a credit event has occurred after Greece changes the terms of the bonds because at that point, the decision will be a no brainer. In fact, the impact of their decision on the EUR/USD at the time could also be more limited as investors would immediately begin to price in a credit event once the CACs are activated. We don’t have much going on in Europe over the next 24 hours. European Leaders will continue to meet but no major announcements are expected. According to this morning’s U.S. economic reports, the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone contracted in February. Activity in Germany was revised slightly higher while activity in France was revised lower. German retail sales are due for release tomorrow along with Eurozone producer prices – a rebound is expected in both reports after dips the previous month. Better than expected GDP and PMI numbers from Switzerland failed to lend much support for the Swissie, which weakened against both the U.S. dollar and euro. We do not anticipate any significant volatility in the EUR/USD on Friday with the real test for the euro coming next week.

    ok: Uncertainty in the eurusd even tho dolla index drop off that afternoo with the aussie and the gbp rallying. Odd
    4hrs 01/02/2012
    eurusd set up 4hrs cross 01022012.

    Dam eurusd drops off Not looking good..

    Finially 02/03/2012

    Failed Long no confimation. hrly time frame

    eurusd  tech notes hrly3  02022012.

    As you can see from the hrly chart above the yellow 4hr line despite the attempt during the tow session american and asian yellow line 4hr stochastics did not cross over the 50 line to confirm the trade.
    Becasue of the news and the uncertainty in the Euro zone my contrainain trade long was wrong. However i took a small loss and my stops were kept tight.

    Mistakes
    i should have waited for a cross of Mr Price rising over the 8DEMA on the 4hr time frame or the 55DMA on the hrly time frame.
    Failed asian session was a cluse( Still i was not at home to exit the trade.)
    a close of price beneath pervious support.
    Positives
    Trade was small as i only placed what i call a traker trade and stop loss tight.
    paid attention to the news and sentiment
    also i've notice when i start to get that feeling of hope....and thoughts like i hope this trade goes my way but doubt in my stomach exit the trade.
    Trading is not hoping and willing a trade to go your way.
     
    #4 kasim ijelu, Mar 2, 2012
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2012
  5. kasim ijelu

    kasim ijelu Private, 1st Class

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    AudUSd 07/03/2012 Confirmed Trade

    Lets start with the Daily being Correctively Bullish ( the only thing that worries me is that the aud has failed to rally back to the Larger medium Line so this signals a drop to the base line EMMMM!!!

    audusd correectively bullish daily  07032012.

    Although this trade is still in its infantacy on the 4hr time.
    I took advantage of the weekly Pivot support @ 1.05392 using the 4hr Anchor System
    We had RBA keeping intrest rates the same @4.25
    As the drop in the audusd slowed down and the dolla index peaking today @ 73.200 I took advantage
    aud set up 4hrs  confirmed  07032012.
    A 4hr fractral at A wkly support level 1.05392
    A True swing buy signal warning us of a possiable surge to the 8Dema. A close above the 8Dema @ 1.0572 which also happens to be montly s1 turn resistance @ 1.05821 a break above there
    Will continue the reversal upwards
    But not so fast we have unemployment rate and change due out later today so will have to waite and see.
    So we are still correctively bullish on the daily (see rules above) untill 1.05821 montly pivot can be recaptured and held

    aud set up 1hr  confirmed  07032012.

    Hrly Below
    You can see Yellow 4hr confirm push above 50 while the stochastics hrly dips to the up side
    4hr blue line rsi rising
    volume surge not great on the hrly but i did say this trade is still young will have to want and see what happens in th e market and employment figure results draws closer
    P.s i have to go down to the 5 min time frame to get entry not something i ususally do but becasuse the trade is only in its potential stage i took the chance with tight stops. presently, my stop is at break even.
    aud set up 1hr  confirmed2  07032012.
    aud set up 4hrs  confirmed  07032012.
     

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    #5 kasim ijelu, Mar 7, 2012
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2012

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