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The market before Elections?

Discussion in 'General Forex Talk' started by Urum, Oct 28, 2012.

  1. Urum

    Urum Private

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    Hi traders

    I see total confusion in the market. It goes up and down with no sense of direction, it breaks support and then comes up again, breaks resistance and goes down after. It goes up in a trusting move and then goes down erasing the trusting swing. It makes no sense. :confused: :p

    I thought could the US elections be the reason, cause I've noticed a similar thing in April this year before the Greek and French elections in May.
     
  2. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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    Uncertainty tends to lead to unpredictability. Add in that some market participants think that one candidate will be better for the economy than the other and other market participants hold the opposite viewpoint. Each little twitch in the poll numbers sends those with different viewpoints stampeding in opposite directions.

    Personally, other than some very long term carry trades, I'm staying flat until the US elections are over.
     
  3. antonisk

    antonisk Private, 1st Class

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    The issue with the elections is not who will be elected that will move the markets (dollar) but what policies he will enforce. The real challenge for the US economy is its deficit, if they come up with a consensus to a plan to tackle the deficit that will have a greater impact on the markets than the elections. The congress is controlled by the Republicans thus Romney way have a better chance in negotiating the necessary budget cuts that are needed to “reduce” the US deficit thus avoiding a repeat of the 2011 government standstill.
     
  4. Klem

    Klem Private

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    Strong signal will be on Friday...
     
  5. Klem

    Klem Private

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    NonFarmPayrolls will play on my opinion strong role in market moving...
     
  6. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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    NFP is always one of the biggest potential market movers of any given month, but I'll wager a US Presidential election with a bunch of congressional seats also up for grabs will have a bigger impact.
     

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