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Thursday September 8, 2011 - 7:45am EDT - EU ECB Interest Rate

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Sep 7, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
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    Hello All,

    Please see my trade plan for the ECB rate decision, I have a gut feeling that this one may be a surprise, don't ask me why I just have that feeling. will see how it goes.

    EU ECB Interest Rate
    Forecast: 1.50%
    Previous 1.50%
    Pair to trade: EUR/USD
    Triggers we need: 0.25 BUY/ -0.25 SELL

    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Actual forecast is good for the currency
    Occurrence: Released monthly


    About our Triggers:
    It is unlikely the ECB will hike rates to 0.25%. We will BUY EUR/USD as per my method of trading below.
    The same rule will apply if the ECB suddenly decides to lower the rate, which seems unlikely. Should the ECB decrease rates, please look for a short term possible SELL of the EUR/USD pair. This will be a widely watched release considering all the issues the ECB are facing with Greece, Portugal and now Italy. It is very important that you stay diligent during this release, as in 45 minutes (after news release) President Jean-Claude Trichet, of the ECB, will make either bullish or dovish comments. These comments will have a long term effect on the EUR/USD and the direction it will face.

    If our tradable releases are reached, there is a good expectation that the market will move 60-70 pips within 2 spikes in the first 15 minutes, after news release.

    What is it? Why do we care?
    The European Central Bank (ECB) decision on short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the EUR
    A lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the EUR

    Method to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    The rate decision is often priced in the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the ECB Press Conference, held 45 minutes after the news release.

    I would recommend spike trading as the best option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker.

    I will look for a 30% retrace in the original spike before entering a trade.
    I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level, or if the chart decides to form a level looking at a 15 minute time frame. I would not stay in this trade longer than 25 minutes, due to the ECB Press Conference.

    Historical Chart and Data for ECB Interest rate

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Sep 7, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016

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