Tickmill UK Daily Market Notes

tickmill-news

Tickmill Representative
Messages
0
Raising Price, Cutting Output: Mixed Signals from Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia underpinned oil mood on Monday announcing additional output cut by 1 million bpd. starting in June. The Kingdom’s output is expected to decline to 7.5 million bpd., the lowest level for almost 20 years. The underlying motive is probably to speed up market rebalancing and hence price recovery. It is worth mentioning that the decision of the Kingdom soon followed the telephone conversation of Trump and the King of Saudi Arabia. Brent jumped 5% on good news, but the bullish momentum proved to be short-lived as the price closed below the opening. Given the news that Saudi Arabia decided to rise OSP for June, the extra cut may seem as a weird move since by cutting output producer signals about expectations of declining demand, while charging higher prices is usually a sign of improving demand picture.

The Kingdom has successfully passed the baton of additional voluntary production cuts to other Middle Eastern countries, in particular Kuwait and the UAE which decided to follow suit and said they will reduce output by 100 and 80 thousand bpd in June, respectively. There is an aspect of the OPEC+ deal which explains limited optimism about the news: uncertainty in commitment of the individual participants to output cut targets. In other words, these additional output cuts may either surprise to the upside later, signaling about over-fulfillment of the plan or play out as a downside surprise if subsequent data reveals poor performance of other participants. For example, Iraq has historically turned out to be the least “diligent” member of the cartel (in terms of following a collective agreement), so there are concerns that the country won’t be able to deliver the output cut by 1 million b/d.

Today we expect the report from US Department of Energy (EIA), which will contain a short-term outlook for the oil market. It will be interesting to see how the agency adjusted their projections considering recent changes such as collapse of drilling activity and fairly rapid decline of the US production over the past few weeks. OPEC is going to release its monthly report on Wednesday and on Thursday the monthly EIA report is due which is of particular interest because of extremely vague demand picture and lack of reliable estimates of demand recovery.

The Chinese statistical agency reported that annual inflation in April was 3.3%, which is less than the forecast of 3.7%.



But looking under the hood we don’t see signs of severe slack in consumption: decelerating food inflation accounted for a good part of the slowdown in the aggregate indicator. Core inflation which excludes volatile components such as good and fuel was up 1.1% in annual terms. At the same time, production price index indicated a deflation of 3.1% against the forecast of -2.6%. Given the reliance of manufacturing sector to foreign demand, PPI points to weakness in foreign economies.

Easing inflation pressures gives a firm nudge to the Central Bank to proceed with a new round of monetary easing, which should bring some relief for local and foreign risk assets. The quarterly PBOC monetary policy report released over the weekend indicated a growing bias of the Central Bank to strengthen liquidity support for the economy in the near future.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

tickmill-news

Tickmill Representative
Messages
0
Oil and Gold: Review of the Key Drivers
Oil: Contango Eases

Tuesday WTI gains, which helped the price to close above $25, set the stage for modest Wednesday rally. While the market ponders over next leg of the rally, price difference between the December and June WTI futures continued to narrow:



Declining market contango indicates several effects are in play:

  • Abating concerns related to the storage and transportation of WTI, including in Cushing (more on that below);
  • Oil funds completing the shift from near-term to more distant contracts (change in USO positions at the end of April as an example);
  • Easing supply pressure thanks to output cuts from OPEC+ deal, market-driven output cuts in the US and voluntary cuts from some Middle East countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE.
  • Slow recovery in demand for near-term oil supplies.
The American Petroleum Institute said yesterday that oil reserves rose by 7.5 million barrels, but most interestingly, Cushing inventories, according to the agency’s estimates, fell by 2.26 million barrels. If the EIA confirms this estimate, it will be the first inventory reduction since February. Negative change in Cushing inventories basically means that less oil arrives there than taken from it. It reinforces our view that production declines and demand grows in the US. In addition, this limits pressure on prices based on concerns that the June WTI contract may repeat the story of the May contract with the approach of expiration date.

As for EIA’s short-term energy outlook report, the agency has revised down its forecast for US oil output. The agency expects that the average production for 2020 will decline by another 70 thousand barrels to 11.69 million barrels (-540 thousand bpd in annual terms). The agency also predicts a decline in production of almost 800 thousand b/d in 2021.

XAUUSD: risks are shifted to the downside

In gold, we observe some stabilization near $ 1,700 per troy ounce; technically, recent price action on 4H timeframe forms triangle, which is usually a sign of breakout:



There is strong evidence that Gold pricing depends a lot on inflation expectations in the US:



This chart suggests some “hyperinflation fears” may be priced in Gold which are subject to revision with the latest inflation data.

Core inflation in the US in April fell by 0.4% MoM for the first time in 38 years, showed the report on Tuesday. Firstly, this is evidence of a severe drop in consumption, which tends to regain losses slowly. Secondly, this indirectly indicates that firms have accumulated record inventories and may be soon forced to make discounts, which is another factor of pressure on consumer prices. In my opinion, with the advent of clear deflationary trend in the US, gold loses the main growth factor. Soon we can see a “sell-off” of hyperinflation fears from the Fed’s policies and fiscal stimulus, as, in fact, evidence grows that they won’t materialize soon.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

tickmill-news

Tickmill Representative
Messages
0
FX Beats: Major Pairs Outlook
U.S. dollar

Jay Powell’s testimonial on Tuesday demonstrated the Fed’s intransigent position towards negative interest rates in the US. Meanwhile the assessment of economic prospects was rather gloomy, which together with NIRP comments resulted in a rather unbalanced and unusually dovish communication for a traditional centrist (which Jay Powell is), which disappointed market.

The most important economic update in the US today is initial unemployment claims which are expected to increase by another 2.5 million. It’s considerably less than in the past weeks but given Powell’s gloomy outlook, a miss in the data is unlikely to surprise anyone, but a positive surprise will likely support risk appetite, again, due to the fact that dovish Powell comments laid a rather “low base” for expectations about the US economy. This should be taken into account in the interpretation of incoming data.

The EIA confirmed decrease in Cushing inventories (-3M barrels), which is very positive news for the oil market. The IEA revised the average oil demand in 2020 by +690 thousand barrels per day, the comments of the head of Birol were slightly optimistic. In particular, he said that the drop in demand was not as strong as expected, as countries continue to lift restrictions.

Pound

Uncertainty with the path of economy reopening continues to put pressure on the pound. GBPUSD has tested the April low at 1.22, but in my opinion, GBP still has a room to fall. Today, all attention is on the webinar of the BoE head Bailey. As I wrote earlier, the government’s plans to increase public debt should be supported by the monetary policy, because acceleration in debt growth needs low rates. In particular, in order to keep the yield on government bonds at a low level, the Central Bank may have to push QE pedal and expectations for this step are now one of the drivers for GBP shorts. In a television interview, Bailey has already made it clear that the discussion on this topic is important.

Euro

Today the vice president of the ECB Guindos will hold a speech so the euro may react to comments of the second person in the ECB. He said on Tuesday that the peak of economic contraction had passed, but it was becoming increasingly difficult to predict how the economy would recover. A little optimism was added by data on inflation in Germany (0.9%, forecast 0.8%) and unemployment in France (7.8%, forecast 8.4%). Italy has presented a plan for a new fiscal stimulus of 55 billion euros. There are few growth catalysts for the euro, however Fed’s Powell helped the dollar to take a solid position, therefore, the growth of EURUSD is limited and it may be worth considering short positions with short goals. Nevertheless, in cross rates the euro will probably not back down.

AUD

Data on the labor market for April showed that the number of jobs decreased by 594 thousand, but the unemployment rate did not increase as much as expected. In April, it was 6.2% with a forecast of 8.2%. Now AUD has come under the fire, like, however, all other currencies that were the beneficiaries of the recent surge in demand for risky assets, but from the point of view of fundamental data, the Australian currency’s positions are quite strong. One of the arguments for this may be the fiscal stimulus of the government, which amounted to almost 16.5% of GDP.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

tickmill-news

Tickmill Representative
Messages
0
FX Beats: Major Pairs Outlook for This Week
Global markets started the week with moderate optimism thanks to positive news flow related to re-opening of economies, increasing consumer mobility and lifting of related caps on consumption. News about gradual return of Europe and some US states to their normal economic rhythm somewhat neutralize dismal reports from the economic front.

The spurt in risk assets is also supported by oil prices as their robust growth prompts upbeat adjustments of inflation expectations, key gauge of an economic rebound. Relatively expensive crude oil compared to recent period of low prices helped commodity currencies to lead within the G10 group, although their bullish momentum grows fragile due to risk of oil downside correction. The demand for risk assets is now also constrained by emerging risk of re-escalation of the trade spat between the United States and China due to Trump attempts of scapegoating. The size of long-term economic damage from lockdowns on firms remains unclear, however, for risk assets this risk will be likely negative. Regarding foreign exchange market, limited room for risk-on moves provide solid foundation for stronger USD, with DXY likely staying above 100 mark.

The European currency continued to hover around 1.08 mark on Monday. The easing of sanitary restrictions in one of the epicenters of the Covid-19 outbreak in Europe, Italy, indicates that lockdowns for Europe is largely a past issue. Markets’ focus shifts to consumer spending data in order to understand whether there have been changes in consumer habits and what is the impact of social measures distancing on them. EURUSD is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 1.08-1.09 for all this week.

For the pound, support at 1.20 looks fragile thanks to a series of comments by British Central Bank officials who shed light on the future of the UK’s monetary policy. The chief economist of the Bank Haldane hinted in an interview that negative interest rates (on the reserves of commercial banks in the Central Bank) could be added to the bank tools, in addition, recent comments by the head of Bank Bailey indicated an increase in the likelihood of QE expansion in June. The current pound valuation may also not fully capture the risk of Brexit negotiation breakdown, similarly to breakdown of the trade deal between the US and China. The target for the pair is a test of 1.19 mark.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

tickmill-news

Tickmill Representative
Messages
0
Germany ZEW Index: Is the Worst Over?
Germany believes in a rebound! Another update on economic expectations from ZEW suggests that the worst for the Eurozone economy may be behind. Or at least perceived that way.

After the V-shaped movement in March and April, the ZEW index, which gives an aggregate current assessment and expectations of 350 financial experts and economists, stabilized in May. The expectations index changed from 28.2 in April to 51.0 in May.

At the same time, the current situation assessment index fell to -93.5, the lowest since 2003. The improvement in expectations obviously reflects the purely psychological effect of lifting of lockdowns, the latest episode of growth observed in European equities (which works as a leading indicator itself) and increased support from fiscal authorities and the ECB.

The ZEW index refers to comparative statistics, therefore, the rebound above the neutral mark of 50 points in May, to 51 points, suggests that expectations of the respondents became slightly better than in April. The “low base” effect accounted for the increase of the index above 50 points. This U-turn is now of particular interest, since it may be indicative of ф turning point in the economy. In general, soft data becomes more important when markets are on the look for signs of bottoming out and insights from leading indicators can give big advantage for savvy investors. Even if equities ran far ahead of themselves in the current rally, then expectations, not the hard data were the fuel for this growth.

ZEW expectations index for Eurozone rose from 25.2 to 46 points which suggests that the bloc’s recovery lags behind of Germany. However high-frequency data on consumer mobility in the Eurozone indicates that easing of the lockdowns will be very soon reflected in the bloc-wide soft data. If in April the mobility index based on Google Mobility data for Eurozone countries amounted to 60% of the January level (reflecting the peak of lockdowns) it has increased in May to 80%:



Important thing to bear in mind trying to understand why bad economic data produces such tepid response is the fact that lockdowns took only a small part of the 1Q (the last weeks of March) and reached peak in the Eurozone in April. This means that GDP data for the second quarter, which we have not seen yet will most likely be worse than what we saw in the first quarter. Based on the stock market rebound investors may have already discounted that dismal 2Q data and are now trading the third and fourth quarter, which are widely considered to be recovery quarters. Market prices basically reflect a recovery which is at least 2 quarters ahead.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

tickmill-news

Tickmill Representative
Messages
0
EURUSD Trade Idea: Risk of EU Fragmentation and Declining Risk Premium in the Euro
Asian and European equities caught little attention from buyers on Thursday, S&P 500 futures are looking for catalysts to break the 3000 mark, although they have less and less chances to do so because of expansion of anti-Chinese measures and intensifying anti-Chinese rhetoric in the United States. Recall that Congress approved yesterday a bill that allows blocking access for Chinese companies to the US stock market if they fail to “prove” their independence from the Chinese government. A few hours after the bill was passed, Trump attacked China again on Twitter, effectively interrupting the S&P 500’s hike to the 3,000 mark.

According to BoFA survey of investors, the share of hedge funds joining the rally in the stock market rose from 15% in April to 34% in May. However, fund managers maintain a record position bias to cash, apparently considering the rally a speculative impulse, “rally inside the bear market.” More than half of the fund managers interviewed said that among the potential “black swans” for the market, the first place takes a second outbreak of Covid-19 leading to a lockdown, in the second place – permanent job losses in the US labor market, in the third – the collapse of the EU. It’s pretty much clear that any information affecting the odds of these risks being realized will be the dominant factor in investor sentiment in the near future.

Regarding the risk of fragmentation in Europe, we see that credit risk premium in the yield on the debt of the most problematic debtors, for example Italy, continues to dwindle. Over the month, the yield on 10-year Italian bonds slipped from 2.3% to 1.6%. The idea of a trade on EURUSD may be that the premium for this risk in EU assets will continue to decline with the decline of this risk, so the pair should be finally able to test goals above 1.10. Technically, in the horizontal channel, we can see completed pullback, which wasn’t the case during past runs to 1.10:

EURUSD Trade Idea


Consumer confidence in the Eurozone is responding positively to lockdown easing. In May, the indicator moved in positive direction, changing from -22 to -18.8 points. At the same time, it was expected that it would fall to -24 points. Consumer sentiment is a leading economic factor, primarily for consumer spending component of GDP. Nevertheless, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI in May indicated that the number of companies reporting a reduction in output was rising, albeit at a slower rate than in April.

Separately, in the German economy, we see weak dynamics of manufacturing PMI and the faster recovery of PMI in services sector, which is consistent with the dynamics of consumer confidence. The layoffs had not yet managed to overwhelm Europe, government money transfers kept consumption from decline, which was reflected in a faster restoration of the services sector. Production PMI in May at 30 points is another argument in favor of the fact that it’s unlikely to see rebound in manufacturing, which means that it is too early to think about slack in employment.

Japan’s exports and imports declined slightly less than anticipated. Of course, more interesting is the change in exports (about 19% of Japan’s GDP), in the context of a number of other export-oriented Asian countries (for example, China), where export data also pleased in April, this paints a more favorable picture of foreign demand.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

tickmill-news

Tickmill Representative
Messages
0
China Abandons GDP Growth, Sounds Gloomy on Outlook. Will the Bearish Impulse be Sustainable?
Chinese government made “injected” some reality into stock markets today, saying that they don’t’ promise any concrete GDP numbers for 2020, mentioning also the significant uncertainty because of which the impact of a number of factors is difficult to predict. Among those factors is probably a second wave of Covid-19 outbreak. One important sign of this was the fact that recently about 100 million Chinese people have been put quarantined in China. Such wave-like virus spread dynamics translates into a bumpy path for economic growth and activity in the near future, which can’t be averted by liquidity injections and “healthy” stock market valuations.

The logical chain can be continued further and, for example, we can conclude that the demand for resources, including energy, will suffer. It was impossible to pull the spring in oil endlessly, in fact, the factor of the pessimistic Chinese leadership, which abandoned the GDP target, was the reason (convenient premise?) for retracement that we see on Thursday. The commodity market as a whole is also quite frustrated with copper futures dipping by more than 2%. The outlook from the government of the second largest economy in the world, which, to put it mildly, calls for preparing for difficulties, in my opinion, will help the bearish impulse to gain some traction, in particular in emerging markets and commodity currencies.

The latest trade data on Asian economies again lowered the bar for the speed of recovery. The preliminary report on South Korea’s foreign trade unexpectedly indicated a strong decline in overseas shipments in May (-20.3% YoY). Sales of cars and spare parts abroad (in particular, to the main markets – to Europe and the USA) remain depressed, and the export of semiconductors has grown. This is baffling update since it shows that there is a permanent blow to consumption of durable goods and lifting lockdowns won’t fix it quickly. The export of Japan and South Korea to China has grown if we consider the monthly dynamics which serves as another evidence that lifting lockdowns won’t lead to V-shape dynamics in activity.

Recent market discussions about the negative rate of the Bank of England and QE are developing now into concrete expectations of another rate cut. Recall that when we talk about negative interest rate, we are not talking about a market rate (since holding cash yields 0% return and it is always better than negative return if we don’t take into account such complications as costs of storing cash), but about the Central Bank’s rate on bank reserves. The Bank of England wants to take such a radical step, since the last rate cut from 0.75% to 0.1% appears to not have reached the end loan consumers, particularly mortgage borrowers:

China Abandons GDP Growth


Actually, this dynamics speaks in favor of the need to lower the rate further. The head of the Central Bank, Bailey, quickly moved from the camp of opponents to the camp of supporters of negative rates, said yesterday that such an opportunity was being actively discussed. Against this background, GBP is expected to decline further, the immediate goal is to retest the level of 1.20. I continue to hold bearish position in the pair expecting it to retest 1.20 level:

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

tickmill-news

Tickmill Representative
Messages
0
April ECB Minutes Show the Central Bank Doesn’t Know What to Expect
The minutes of April ECB meeting, released on May 22, revealed that the Central bank is eager to deliver more. “Minutes” are worthless they say, because it’s priced in… not the case this time.

Two key things from the report: the ECB is ready to ease credit conditions more and the fact that PEPP remains key policy tool. By the way, PEPP is an emergency “pandemic” program of purchases of private and public sector securities in the amount of 750 billion euros and which will be in effect until the end of 2020. Programs of this kind are usually done in crisis. Their key feature is lowered bar for quality of purchased debt. The key purpose is to directly buy debt of struggling firms and local governments, which are avoided by other creditors because of concerns about creditworthiness. The launch of the program basically leads to the appearance of indiscriminate buyer on the market which hampers market price discovery, leads to excessive risk-taking, etc., but these are considered to be manageable “side effects”. Another issue is that the program has a limit and it will end soon. With current pace of buying the ECB will reach the current limit in September-October. But the minutes, as we see, hinted that extension of the PEPP limit may be on the agenda of one of the next meetings. Given the ECB’s bias to act proactively, the expansion of PEPP may be discussed as early as June.

It is also curious that the ECB for the first time described medium-term uncertainty as radical uncertainty – i.e. risks which can’t be quantified. The Central Bank seeks a solution, experimenting more with preventive policy decisions which tend to cause positive shocks in market sentiments.

The USD index rose at the start of Monday although losing punch later, but it wasn’t about stronger USD: the cause of gains was weaker euro, which has the biggest weight in the index.

IFO index update showed expectations rose higher than expected, but assessment of current situation was worse than expected. A number of survey indicators for May, which we analyzed earlier, where respondents were asked to assess future expectations, turned out to be better than forecasts. This also indicates that a lot of expectations are priced in equities.

On balance, the balance for euro shifts towards more declines with possible test of the lower bound of two-month range:



In Asian markets, attention has been drawn to a rise in the USDCNY reference rate to its highest level since the 2008 crisis. Pressure on the yuan is rising due to capital outflows, and the central bank of China has “officially recognized” this, weakening CNY official rate. Investors are getting rid of Chinese assets because of fear that a new conflict between China and the United States may escalate into a full-fledged financial war. The dynamics of USDCNY over the past two years shows that the mainland yuan depreciated against the dollar whenever Trump threatened tariffs and strengthened anti-Chinese rhetoric. The last episode of the weakening of renminbi probably reflects an anxiety of the same nature:



Accordingly, the demand for risk can get hit from this front as well, which is undoubtedly a positive factor for strengthening the dollar.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

tickmill-news

Tickmill Representative
Messages
0
COT Data: Buying Pressure Decreases in Crude Oil, More Sellers Resign
Market players are now sitting tight in crude oil as the price continues to float in the narrow range with key support to sentiments offered by voluntary/involuntary supply cuts. Upturn in commodity markets along with weaker dollar are also reflected in strong performance of EM and commodity currencies. As the bull trend in the oil market ripens, speculators are less willing to support it, shows COT data from the CFTC (weekly data on open positions of speculators and hedgers in the US). Growth of long positions slowed down from the end of April, and in the week of May 12 – May 19, the number even slightly decreased:



The price gain in that week was achieved mainly by continued decline in short positions:



The onslaught of buyers declined due to the fact that fundamental picture of the recovery in demand remains controversial, since the restart of economies follows a conservative scenario, while there is a risk of repeated lockdowns/extension in some countries. However, Russian Ministry of Energy expects that oversupply will disappear in June/July due to faster demand recovery. Drilling activity in the US continues to decline despite favorable price dynamics. The number of operating rigs decreased by 21 to 237. This is 65% less than in mid-March.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

tickmill-news

Tickmill Representative
Messages
0
BoJ Yield Curve Control and new Supply of Government Debt. What to Expect from the Yen?
After DXY support at 99 points were damaged on Tuesday due to powerful risk-on move, the currency continues to cede ground on Wednesday. Asian equities posted mixed performance; European stock indices apparently enjoy another day of gains. Gold tries to defend hard support at $1,700 per troy ounce, but hunt for yield seems to be gaining upper hand. The collapse of USD yesterday basically confirmed that the main trading theme in FX space remains “USD vs. risk-on” and all country-specific events affecting national currencies may not be reflected in USD pairs but rather finds its way in crosses. The tug of war between risk-taking and risk aversion camps, where USD seemed to be one of the biggest beneficiaries seems to stay in the market for some time, while volatility, in the historical perspective, remains elevated.

The Japanese government will spend an additional $1.1 trillion to protect the economy, showed government’s budget draft released on Wednesday. Together with the fiscal package of $1 trillion announced just a month ago, the total government spending related to the fight against the virus and recession caused by it will amount to a whopping $2.2 trillion, or 40% of GDP. Only the United States spent more – $2.3 trillion, but adjusting the spending for GDP size, there is, of course, not contest for Japan.

The government’s spending plan for 2020 imply an additional issue of 200 trillion yen of fresh debt. To avoid a jump in borrowing costs, the supply will have to be soaked up by some robust demand. Japanese bond market won’t be probably surprised or spooked by massive debt supply, since there is “omnipotent” Bank of Japan with its yield curve control program. By the way the YCC is probably the most radical degree of bond markets intervention in Central Banks’ practice. The essence of this program is that the Central Bank announces that it is ready to buy an unlimited amount of bonds of a certain maturity at some fixed price. In other words, it guarantees some price. Obviously, this sets a lower threshold for the bond price and also stabilizes it. The main difference from QE program is targeting the bond price, not monthly amount of purchases as in case of QE.

If bond price cannot go below some level it means that the yield to maturity cannot generally rise above some level (hence the name “yield control”). To see how this works in practice, let’s try to see some difference between behavior of prices of 10-year government bonds of the US and Japan according to our reasoning:



And indeed, we see that in the US, where the Fed has not yet introduced this program volatility of the price is much higher comparing to the price of JGB. We can also see the price floor around 100 pts for JGB.

Bank of Japan officially announced in 2016 that it would target the yield on 10-year government bonds in a narrow range near 0%.

Obviously, in the context of the government’s plans to massively expand the debt, the operation of the YCC essentially means a new large-scale QE. I repeat once again that this may not be reflected by USDJPY, but in cross-rates, these expectations, in my opinion, may determine the yen’s medium-term weakness.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 
Top