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US Retail sales join Chinese data to hint about early stage of global recovery
US retail sales unexpectedly recovered in March at the fastest rate in a year and a half, offsetting a gloomy February with the fall by 1.7%. As the March data shows, the structure of aggregate consumption saw exceedingly favourable shift, namely, consumers spent more on car purchases. This rebound could point to the improvement in household expectations regarding the size and stability of future income, but still with only one observation such a conjecture remains a shallow speculation. Although car sales tend to be volatile by nature and thus considered unreliable, the positive monthly change in March comes right in time to support the assumption about rebound of economic activity in the second quarter.
However, in January, car sales pulled consumption down, apparently due to seasonal exhaustion after New Year’s spending.
Broad retail sales indicator rose by 1.6% in March compared with February. Core sales also rose adding 1%.
From the interesting details of retail sales report, it can be noted that all four of the largest items of consumer spending posted an increase compared with the same month last year and February:
Positive data further attracted buyers to the dollar, after the US currency went into the lead against the main opponents during the London session on Thursday:
Unemployment in the US is likely to continue to test historical lows in April, as shown by unemployment benefits data. The number of initial claims for benefits has dropped to its lowest level in 50 years (192K) and it is completely unclear how this fails to translate into the consumer inflation.
Large downward risks to the American economy, hovered in the air, are fading from view. Given that the data from China indicated fast recovery, the trading theme of the next week should be “the search for yield”.
US retail sales unexpectedly recovered in March at the fastest rate in a year and a half, offsetting a gloomy February with the fall by 1.7%. As the March data shows, the structure of aggregate consumption saw exceedingly favourable shift, namely, consumers spent more on car purchases. This rebound could point to the improvement in household expectations regarding the size and stability of future income, but still with only one observation such a conjecture remains a shallow speculation. Although car sales tend to be volatile by nature and thus considered unreliable, the positive monthly change in March comes right in time to support the assumption about rebound of economic activity in the second quarter.
However, in January, car sales pulled consumption down, apparently due to seasonal exhaustion after New Year’s spending.
Broad retail sales indicator rose by 1.6% in March compared with February. Core sales also rose adding 1%.
From the interesting details of retail sales report, it can be noted that all four of the largest items of consumer spending posted an increase compared with the same month last year and February:
- Cars and spare parts – + 3.8%
- Food and drinks – + 1.0%
- Restaurants – + 0.8%
- Online purchases – +1.2% and +11.6% compared with March 2018.
Positive data further attracted buyers to the dollar, after the US currency went into the lead against the main opponents during the London session on Thursday:
Unemployment in the US is likely to continue to test historical lows in April, as shown by unemployment benefits data. The number of initial claims for benefits has dropped to its lowest level in 50 years (192K) and it is completely unclear how this fails to translate into the consumer inflation.
Large downward risks to the American economy, hovered in the air, are fading from view. Given that the data from China indicated fast recovery, the trading theme of the next week should be “the search for yield”.