Tickmill UK Daily Market Notes

[tickmill-news]

Big Surprise from ISM Data Stokes Inflation Concerns in the US
European markets trimmed Monday gains, USD recovered some lost ground after yesterday sell-off as the uncertainty remains high associated with the partial reinstation of lockdown in the United States.

The US service sector surprisingly improved in June. ISM business activity index in the services sector jumped from 41 to 66 points (49 points exp.). The leading component of new orders also advanced from 41.9 to 61.6 points, which bodes well for broad index of business activity in the next month.

Saudi Arabia once again raised the August selling prices for oil for most grades going to Asia, the US and Europe. which is seen as a signal of strengthening demand. The price of Arab Light for the Asian region rose by $1, which, however, turned out to be less than the market expected. It should also be noted that the differential between the benchmark and the price of Russian Urals in Europe continues to widen, which indicates an improvement in EU energy consumption outlook. Of course, OPEC is forced to seek trade-off between production cuts and price strategy, which will put pressure on the margin of refineries.

Today we expect release of the monthly short-term energy outlook from EIA in which the agency provides forecast for oil production in the United States. Given that oil prices are rising and some producers in the United States said they plan to increase production in response to this, it will be interesting to see how the EIA takes this information into account in its forecast. Last month, the EIA predicted an average rate of US oil production at 11.57 million bpd, 660K bpd. lower than a year earlier. Also, API weekly inventory data is expected today, which is likely to indicate further inventory decline, which should help WTI to move higher.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

 

[tickmill-news]

Fed’s Bostic hints next leg of sharp M2 expansion may be around the corner, Gold breaks $1800
Gold futures climbed above $1800 level after one of the architects of the Fed’s current monetary stance, Rafael Bostik, made a less optimistic assessment of the US economic recovery than Fed Chairman Powell. Right in the midst of surprising economic updates in May and June, the head Atlanta’s Federal Reserve Bank said he sees signs that the recovery is moving into plateau. To save the room for maneuver in the future, he said that he hasn’t figured out whether it was just a pause or recovery in activity is changing regime.

But the most important statement, from the perspective of market impact, was the following:

“Given that possibility, to start thinking about what the next relief package should look like.”

As the latest examples of policy easing and fiscal stimulus have already shown, fiscal programs in 2020 are not only large in size but are also aggressive. In other words, the government is not just accumulating a lot of debt, but it is doing it intensively. This requires a so-called “coordination of monetary and fiscal policy” – increased supply of government bonds should be absorbed by the Fed to keep borrowing costs low. When the Fed buys Treasuries from private investors, this leads to an increase in money supply in the economy. A side effect of this process is suppression of market interest rates, the elimination of market price discovery (trading and investing turns into guessing a next Fed move), the flight of investors to the only class of assets that still have positive real yield – stocks. It is also known from macroeconomic theory that in the medium and long term, inflation path is almost solely determined by growth of money supply, so the signal from Bostic that M2 may start to rise again soon propels demand for assets which offer protection which is precisely gold:

As the latest examples of policy easing and fiscal stimulus have already shown, fiscal programs in 2020 are not only large in size but are also aggressive. In other words, the government is not just accumulating a lot of debt, but it is doing it intensively. This requires a so-called “coordination of monetary and fiscal policy” – increased supply of government bonds should be absorbed by the Fed to keep borrowing costs low. When the Fed buys Treasuries from private investors, this leads to an increase in money supply in the economy. A side effect of this process is suppression of market interest rates, the elimination of market price discovery (trading and investing turns into guessing a next Fed move), the flight of investors to the only class of assets that still have positive real yield – stocks. It is also known from macroeconomic theory that in the medium and long term, inflation path is almost solely determined by growth of money supply, so the signal from Bostic that M2 may start to rise again soon propels demand for assets which offer protection which is precisely gold:

If you look closely at the recent gold behavior, we can see domination of bullish forces with short corrective pullbacks. There are really no expectations of a bear market in gold because there are no expectations that the key contributing factor will change the sign – i.e. the Fed stance and its pledge to cooperate with government to help the Treasury market to weather increased supply. The bias of the government to borrow more in order to soften landing of the economy is huge now and it’s unlikely that we see a U-turn in the government’s fiscal policy.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

 

[tickmill-news]

USD Index: Focus on Signals from the Fed and Congress
Exports and imports of Germany, the biggest economy of the EU, indicated an improvement in May compared with April. It is not a surprise since lockdowns in April reached their peak in the EU. In monthly terms, exports grew by 9%, after falling by 24% in April. However, compared with February volumes, exports are 26% lower. Imports increased slightly (+3.5%) which casts shady on sustainability of spike in consumption after lockdowns were lifted, since change in imports are a kind of forward-looking indicators and reflect expectations of future domestic demand.

The data is interesting in the sense that global trade indicators for May spoke in sync that foreign demand continued to stall. If you look at trade figures of Asian economies (which are also export-oriented), the situation there is similar – weak export growth or even MoM decline in May. The divergence of foreign with domestic demand which rebounded in May suggests that the growth in consumption is forced and probably unstable. It was achieved due to the use of “steroids” in the form of fiscal programs of the EU government, which has evolved from a long-term saver to a big spender.

However, combined policy of the Fed and US Congress is suppressing any attempts of USD buyers to seize the initiative. Therefore, in currency pairs with USD, including EURUSD it’s crucial to analyze expectations related to the Fed and US government. The government is clearly inclined to borrow more because of signals of deterioration in rising US economic activity and the Fed will likely to continue to “collect” government debt on its balance sheet, because there is no other way to generate demand that can replace the lost demand in consumption and investment. The negative picture of USD is also confirmed by technical developments:

From the beginning of June, the bearish trend turned into a correction, which ended with the development of a fairly symmetrical double top. Usually this is a trend reversal pattern, but sometimes it acts as a continuation pattern, which is possible in our case. A convenient moment for sales may be a return to the key support zone at 96.50. We can set a fairly attractive stop loss not higher than intermediate resistance at 97.00, with reasonable take profit target – the previous low at 95.50-95.60.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

 

[tickmill-news]

US Labor Market on Steroids – How long will that last?
Market bears decided to find a pressing point of stock buyers before the weekend amid a release of worrying US employment data. In fact, the point of concern is quite unobvious, as it’s hiding behind the improvement of some “popular” indicators, but let’s try to figure it out what’s wrong.

US stocks closed in the red on Thursday, Friday trading shows that pressure remains, which can be seen in the modest sell-off of Asian and European equities as well as weak futures on US stocks.

Yesterday, attention of market participants was drawn to the piece of statistics released on every Thursday – initial and continuing claims for unemployment benefits. This data has gained particular significance after the US substantially expanded its income insurance program by introducing a variety of generous pandemic-related payments to unemployed. At the same time, the unemployed who are not in search of work also became eligible to receive payments, which created a situation where a good part of jobless is not captured by official unemployment measures. Consequently, the importance of alternative labor market metrics, which capture these “unreported” unemployed, has increased significantly.

The data this Thursday showed that the initial and continuing claims, in a positive sense, exceeded expectations:

• Initial claims – 1.314M, 1.375M expected.
• Continuing claims – 18.062M, 18.8M expected.

However, if we dig deeper, some disturbing underlying employment trends continue to unfold. For example, claims for all unemployment benefit programs, contrary to expectations, continued to increase and rose by 1.4M to 32.9M, highest on record. In the chart below, you can see how many people the BLS considers unemployed and how many people receive unemployment benefits – almost twice higher:

Using values of the gray curve, real unemployment should be now around 20% (compared to official 11.1% of the BLS)!

In the context of “awakening” pessimism in remarks of the Fed officials, such a dynamics of unemployment claims is quite expected. Recall that earlier this week the head of Atlanta Fed said that “there are signs” that recovery in economic activity starts to stifle and discussions about a new stimulus package are becoming more and more appropriate. One of the subtle signals that the government is working on this issue was the extension of the Paycheck Protection Program (that “non-repayable” paycheck loans) until August 8. Increased unemployment benefits expire at the end of this month and the growing dependence of consumer component of GDP on this program suggests that the government will be forced to extend them. Already according to the established, slightly ugly tradition, such a decision will probably only launch a new leg of rally in the US stock markets.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

 

[tickmill-news]

Developing Trading Setup Before July ECB Meeting
The final amount of economic damage from Covid-19 will be probably known in the second quarter of 2020. I think it is necessary condition for the ECB to start to act. For now, wait-and-see stance is more appropriate for the ECB as two key tasks have been solved – the Central Bank stabilized financial markets and, in tandem with the EU government, spurred some highly uneven economic activity. Signs of recovery are well seen in the rebound in consumer inflation in the Eurozone (+ 0.3% in June, 0.1% in May), retail sales in Germany (+ 13.9% in May, forecast 3.9%), consumer confidence indices, which are gradually recover from the zone of depression. Developments in stalling exports sector, especially the state of German automakers, which even without the virus experienced a decline in export orders, are worrying. In this regard, the ECB policy should somehow solve the problem of competitive devaluation of the euro, which should smooth out the decrease in the revenue of exporters in national currency.

What can the ECB do for the euro? I think that after three rounds of bold stimulus, substantial increase of the limit and duration of the key policy tool – PEPP lending program, there are only open mouth operations left. The euro will not be convinced.

Recent data have shown that the Central Bank has no reason to expect some material changes in inflation picture. Although inflationary pressures have appeared in some parts of the economy (primarily in retail, due to support of consumption), in general, the conditions for slowing inflation prevail (rising unemployment, increased risk of default for companies, etc.). Therefore, from this point of view, the ECB has little incentive to tweak its policy.

The ECB is likely to maintain the status quo.

It follows that the likelihood of further weakening of USD against the euro is also high. Recall that USD has not yet fully priced in the risk of a new round of stimulus in the US, the need for which is rising due to moderation of the pace of economic recovery. We learned about this from the hints of several Fed officials. On Tuesday, data on consumer inflation in the US is expected, which will likely indicate a further slowdown, which should also contribute to further retreat of the US currency, as this increases the likelihood of intervention in the economy by the Central Bank and the US government.

Technical setup:

Taking into account market expectations regarding the ECB July meeting, which is likely to pass without threats to the euro, there is a high probability of a repeated test of intermediate resistance at the 1.1350 zone and subsequent test of June high in the 1.1400 area. In case of retracement to intermediate support in the zone 1.1260, it may also be worth considering more appealing longs with a target at the June pivot high

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

 

[tickmill-news]

Is the EURUSD Poised to Gain More?
The dollar finally went into defense on Wednesday, the USD index broke through 96 points, the lowest since the start of June. Breaking down the index into components, it can be seen that the move was driven predominantly by strengthening of euro:

In the trade-weighted USD index euro has the biggest weight which also contributed to the magnitude of decline.

On Monday, we discussed a trading setup on EURUSD, I recommend that you carefully read my arguments why the common currency can easily discount July ECB meeting and why the long positions in the pair were (and most likely remain) justified.

The attention of the markets (including mine) was drawn by speeches of Fed’s “talking heads” yesterday. In short, officials continue to lament over “shrouded in a thick layer of fog” economic outlook while key stimulus programs expiring in a month. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Bullard “expects” that Congress won’t stop halfway and approve at the end of this month a new “substantial” program to support firms and households. Depending on the size of the package, the Fed may need to step in with some asset-purchase program to prevent disruptions from the oversupply shock in the Treasury market. We know where that leads.

Of course, one can argue that the Fed and Congress should be constrained by inflation in their stimulus plans, however, Central Bank officials continue to insist that factors of strong disinflation have arisen and at work in the economy. Robert Kaplan cites the resulting excess of production capacities (the so-called overcapacity) as an argument. Let me explain what he means. When a consumption shock occurs, the demand curve quickly shifts to the left, which reduces the equilibrium prices in the economy (deflationary effect). However, the adjustment of the supply curve (reduction in production) takes longer (sometimes significantly), since the shock reveals excess capacity of manufacturers (+ oversupply of inventory) that cannot be quickly eliminated. This increases the time of adjustment. This leads to the situation where economy continues to produce more than can be sold and consumed for some time. And this is, of course, disinflationary.

As we see, Fed officials have both a desire and a sense of “impunity”, which is why new measures to support the economy are actively discussed, which have already shown how they can actively depreciate the dollar. Hence the market’s tendency to expect further weakening of the dollar, which, as we see, is gradually being realized. These expectations are also fueled by the deterioration of epidemiological situation in the United States, which objectively slows down the economy and dampens recovery, because individual states are careful in lifting lockdowns. The need for new stimulus and corresponding pressure on the US government is growing, which cannot be said, for example, about the EU, where the epidemic remains under control. This is an additional argument in favor of the strength of the euro against the dollar (i.e. underlying imbalance in stimulus expectations and recovery outlook).

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

 

[tickmill-news]

EURUSD: Next Stop at 1.15?
EURUSD Analysis.

This week focus in the US earnings season shifts from banks to the tech sector, but stock markets remains relatively resilient to headwinds of various intensity, whether it be the smoldering US-Sino conflict or far more serious accelerating daily gain in Covid-19 cases. Nonetheless, market sentiment and demand for USD are sensitive to the data that shed light on how quickly economies recover. In this context, weekly data on US mortgage applications on Wednesday and production PMI on Friday will be of particular interest.

Markets will be also sensitive to news related to extension of the government’s coronavirus relief measures which are set to expire at the end of July. Without them, the US economy which showed signs of takeoff, will likely to experience quick loss of altitude and hard landing. The reason for this is that states reopening in the US clearly went wrong – due to accelerating increase in the new cases, states which represent 80% of the population, paused or began to return lockdowns:

In the chart above, it can be seen that as of June 24, the states, where more than 90% of the population live, in one way or another were lifting restrictions (width of the blue area is 90%). With acceleration of the incidence of Covid-19, the situation has changed dramatically – the states, which represent 40% of the US nation, have paused lifting lockdowns (gray zone), in the states where the other 40% live, restrictions are increasing (red zone). Of course, this setback increases odds that removing fiscal support will unwind all recent achievements in the labor market and especially in protection of consumer confidence. Democrats leading in polls ahead of the presidential election put Republicans in a less favorable position so they may be more inclined to make concessions to approve new stimulus bill.

EURUSD continues to move upward thanks to the progress in negotiations on the Eurozone Recovery Fund. If member states manage to agree, for the first time in the history of the EU, Eurozone bonds (mutualized debt) will be issued, which will become a source of financing for the stimulus project.

Expectations of the issuance of “palatable debt” are drawing investors in the euro, and the closer the negotiations are to success, the more EURUSD strengthening can be expected. Nevertheless, some EU leaders warned that despite the compromises made, the negotiations could fail.

The Eurozone consolidated debt topic sets the euro apart from other dollar peers and is likely to allow the pair to test the important 1.15 level this week:

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

 

[tickmill-news]

Flip Side of Strong July Payrolls
The US economy created more than expected jobs in July, a report showed on Friday. Despite small positive deviation with consensus estimate it was a big surprise since several alternative data sources (Homebase data, ADP report) indicated the risk of downside surprise. The solid report had material impact on USD position, highlighting case for broad DXY consolidation, but it wasn’t a game-changer since the Fed made it clear major changes in policy should be expected in September. It is unlikely that positive July reading can prompt serious revisions in the track of recovery.

USD attempts to develop last week’s momentum on Monday, targeting the upper bound of the current range (92.50-94.00) buoyed by optimism related to positive expectations on retail sales report which is due on August 14.

Jobs count increased by 1.763M compared with consensus estimate of 1.48M while official unemployment rate declined to 10.2%. Wages grew by 4.8% YoY, but growth estimates are naturally skewed to the upside as proportion of high-skilled workers relative to low-skilled workers increased because of higher rate of layoffs among unqualified labor in this recession. Service sector posted predictably faster pace of recovery, adding 592 thousand jobs.

Despite declining official unemployment rate, the government continues to support an army of unemployed which is somewhat higher than official estimates. This can be seen from “alternative” unemployment benefits data. Although official estimate of unemployed is approximately 16M, about 13M people receive payments under PUA (Pandemic Unemployment Assistance), i.e. the number of people receiving unemployment benefits is more than 31M:

Excerpt from the latest report on unemployment benefits. Release date: August 6

In light of these figures, we can conjecture the negative side of strong July payrolls: Republicans and Democrats can now extend tug-of-war process in the negotiation of terms of the next fiscal deal thanks to easing pressure from improving incoming data. This extends duration of the dip in incomes since extended unemployment benefits program expired a week ago.

Having found support in the 92.50-92.60 zone, the dollar index entered a period of consolidation, which is likely to remain until the Republicans and Democrats agree on the terms of a new package of fiscal support for the economy.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

 

[tickmill-news]

Euro Demand Remains at 5-year High but Technical Picture Calls for Caution
The European currency posted record-high appeal among speculators for several years, showed the latest CFTC report. Net long speculative position rose to a 5-year high in the week ending Aug 4:

Extreme speculative bias calls for caution in assessing prospects of further Euro rise and played itself as a corrective factor:

Classic “double top” in the pair significantly slowed down the upward trend from a technical point of view, however, failed breakthrough of the trend line at 1.1710 level prevented early transfer of control to the sellers’ hands. Thus, the pair confirmed plans to remain in consolidation, probably until the terms of a new fiscal deal in the US are announced.

Expectations related to new round fiscal stimulus in the US offer solid support to the oil market. The European benchmark Brent rose 1.3% to nearly $45 per barrel. Drilling activity data from Baker Hughes released last Friday showed that rig count declined by 4 to 176 units, down nearly 75% from mid-March, hitting the lowest level since 2005.

This week we will have a lot of reports related to the oil market. These are API and EIA reports that are released on a weekly basis and are expected to show a decline by another 3.7 million barrels in commercial inventories. Today, the release of a short-term energy outlook by the EIA is expected, which will contain updated forecasts for growth of US oil output in 2020 and 2021. OPEC is to release its monthly report for July on Wednesday that will shed light on what was the cartel’s output in July and what dynamics of demand they expect in the coming months. On Thursday, monthly bulletin from the IEA is expected, in which the agency will assess the potential for market rebalancing in light of OPEC’s gradual lifting of production curbs.

An outcome of the US-China talks on Saturday, during which the parties will take stock of implementation of the first phase of the trade deal, may also have a positive effect on the markets. Despite a number of reports and measures pointing to escalating tensions between the two countries, the latest US export data indicated an increase in agricultural exports to China. In the week ending August 6, corn exports to China increased to 264 kt. There is a positive trend in the export of soybeans to China. USDA data showed that the share of quality crops in the United States increased compared to last year (from ~ 54% to ~ 70%). This is one of the market factors that China referred to when describing which suppliers would be preferred, which indicates a high likelihood of a positive outcome for the market from Saturday negotiations.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

 

[tickmill-news]

Quick Reminder from the Fed that it is not Done with Stimulus
S&P 500 braces for renewing all-time peak deliberately ignoring three major factors of risk: uncertainty over fiscal deal in the US, Covid-19 data and US-China tensions.

The growth of US equities was fueled on Wednesday by the speech of Eric Rosengren, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. In full accordance with opinion of his peers from the Fed, he delivered shock dose of bullish comments. Below are the most notable ones:

• Fiscal and monetary measures are now “critical” for the economy;
• Some signals that recovery moves to plateau;
• Not worried about inflation acceleration.

Looks like a call to get ready for a new leg of monetary easing. The first two comments address concerns about why more stimulus is needed while the third explains why it is still safe.

Note that Rosengren is traditional hawk – he tends to speak and vote for curtailing stimulus rather than increasing it. It is unusual to hear about stimulus from him and this fact lends more weight to his comments.

Data on Wednesday showed that core inflation rose 1.6% on an annualized basis:

The monthly growth in consumer prices also beat expectations – 0.6% against the forecast of 0.2%. This was hinted at by a surprise in PPI, which rose by 0.5% in monthly terms against the 0.1% forecast. However, the impulse in inflation, as in other indicators, is quite natural and reflects lifting of quarantine restrictions, i.e. there is a risk that it will soon fizzle out with recovery getting in plateau phase. Therefore, markets’ response on the release of positive data was muted.

The EURUSD pair climbed above the 1.18 level, but the gain was mainly driven by USD weakness. The euro could lag behind its G10 counterparts if US-EU relations begin to escalate again, which might be suspected from an escalating tariff war. USTR has introduced tariffs on German and French goods that are linked to EU subsidies to Airbus.

As for the GBP, the baseline scenario for the end of this week is consolidation above 1.30 level, as a number of positive UK macro data released this week strengthened position of GBP. USD remains weak and the key driver for rally of the pair is trade negotiations with the EU, which are now on pause.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.