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DJIA: bullish trend remains in force

18/07/2018

Current situation


US stock indices save the positive dynamics after the Fed head Jerome Powell on Tuesday gave a positive assessment of the current state of the American economy.

According to Powell, the state of the US economy, the growth in the number of jobs and the acceleration of inflation "make the best solution is the gradual increase in rates".

In conditions when unemployment is 4%, and annual inflation has recently reached the target level of the central bank of 2%, the Fed management does not want to allow the economy to overheat.

On Wednesday, Jerome Powell will continue his speech, which will begin at 14:00 (GMT). It is likely that Powell will reaffirm the Fed's intention to further gradually increase the interest rate.

As US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said last week, the US economy will not suffer as a result of the introduction of import duties.

Of the news for today, it is also worth paying attention to the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of the report on the dynamics of construction of new homes in the US for June. The growth of indicators is expected, which will support the dollar and US stock indices.

A weak report will cause a decline in indices in the short term. At 18:00 (GMT), the Fed will publish a monthly economic review "Beige Book", which can also cause volatility at the end of the trading day on the stock market.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Pushed back at the end of June from the support level of 24050.0 (the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth from the level of 15650.0 in the wave that began in January 2016. The maximum of this wave and the 0% Fibonacci level are near the 26620.0 mark), DJIA is growing for the third week in a row.

While DJIA is trading above the key support levels of 24200.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 24050.0, positive dynamics remain, and the long-term bullish trend is not threatened.

Breakdown of the local resistance level 25400.0 (June highs) will accelerate the recovery and growth of DJIA. In this case, DJIA will go to the resistance levels 25750.0, 26620.0 (absolute and annual highs).

Signals for sales are not yet available.

Support levels: 25000.0, 24700.0, 24450.0, 24200.0, 24050.0, 23800.0

Resistance levels: 25400.0, 25750.0, 26200.0, 26620.0


Trading Scenarios


Buy Stop 25200.0. Stop-Loss 24950.0. Take-Profit 25400.0, 25750.0, 26200.0, 26620.0

Sell Stop 24950.0. Stop-Loss 25200.0. Take-Profit 24700.0, 24450.0, 24200.0, 24050.0, 23800.0

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
AUD/USD: Corrective Decline

24/07/2018


Support and resistance levels


The US dollar is declining on Tuesday. Nevertheless, so far this reduction should be regarded as correctional. The different focus of monetary policy of central banks in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD / USD pair. The negative dynamicsisprevailing. Short positions are preferred. The immediate goal of the decline is the support level of 0.7330 (lows of the year).

In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.7330, the targets will be the support levels of 0.7200, 0.7150 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart).

Only if the AUD / USD returns above the key resistance level of 0.7620 (EMA200 on the daily chart) can long-term long positions be considered with targets at the resistance level of 0.7820 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall wave of the pair since August 2011 and the level of 1.1030 The minimum of this wave is near the level of 0.6830), 0.7860 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

The signal for purchases may be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 0.7430 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7395, 0.7330, 0.7270, 0.7155, 0.7025

Resistance levels: 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7620, 0.7700, 0.7820, 0.7860


Trading Scenarios


Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7440. Take-Profit 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7155, 0.7025

Buy Stop 0.7440. Stop-Loss 0.7385. Take-Profit 0.7500, 0.7620


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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
EUR/USD: Trading Scenarios

26/07/2018



Since mid-April, EUR / USD has been trading in a downward channel on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which is near the support level 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014).

The signal for the resumption of short positions will be the break of the short-term support level 1.1690 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The target of the decline is the level of support 1.1520 (lows of the year). In case of breakdown of the support level 1.1520, the target of further decline will be the level of support 1.1285. The prevailing negative dynamics.

An alternative scenario will be connected with the breakdown of the resistance level 1.1750 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) and the rise to the resistance level 1.1850 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Nevertheless, the different orientation of the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB is the main negative driver for EUR / USD. Short positions are preferred.

Today, all the attention of market participants will be focused on the ECB meeting. The decision on the rates will be published at 11:45 (GMT) of the decision on rates. At 12:30 a press conference will begin. ECB President Mario Draghi will give an assessment of the prospects for the European economy and monetary policy of the ECB and explain the decision of the ECB on rates.

Any hints of Mario Draghi on the approach of the start of the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone will cause the growth of the euro and the EUR / USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1690, 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1520, 1.1400, 1.1285

Resistance levels: 1.1740, 1.1750, 1.1790, 1.1850


Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.1680. Stop-Loss 1.1760. Take-Profit 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1520, 1.1400, 1.1285

Buy Stop 1.1760. Stop-Loss 1.1680. Take-Profit 1.1790, 1.1850

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
USD/JPY: SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

31/07/2018


The yen fell on Tuesday after the decision of the Bank of Japan to maintain its current monetary policy unchanged.

The Bank of Japan retained the key short-term rate at the level of -0.1% and the zero target level of 10-year government bonds yield.

A statement by the central bank of Japan said that the bank "intends to maintain current extremely low levels of short-term and long-term interest rates for an extended period".

The Bank of Japan reiterated that it wants to achieve the target inflation rate of 2% as soon as possible, although acknowledged that inflation will not reach the target level, at least until the end of 2021.

By the beginning of the US trading session, the USD / JPY rose 0.45% to 111.60.

The USD / JPY is rising in the upward channel on the daily chart, continuing to trade above the key support levels of 110.20 (the Fibonacci level 38.2% of the pair's correction since August last year and the level of 99.90), 110.00 (EMA200 and lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).

The further growth of USD / JPY with the nearest target at resistance level 113.10 (Fibonacci level 50% and maximums of the year) is probably. Long-term growth targets - the level of resistance 116.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 118.60 (highs in January 2017).

The alternative scenario will be connected with breakdown of short-term support levels of 111.30 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 111.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and further decline to the support levels 110.20, 110.00.

Nevertheless, against the background of a different focus of monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan, the upward trend is predominant. Long positions are preferred.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 111.30, 111.00, 110.20, 110.00

Resistance levels: 112.00, 112.25, 113.10, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00


Trading Scenarios


Buy Stop 111.65. Stop Loss 111.20. Take-Profit 112.00, 112.25, 113.10, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Sell Stop 111.20. Stop Loss 111.65. Take-Profit 111.00, 110.20, 110.00

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
GBP/USD: Support and resistance levels

02/08/2018


From the middle of April and from the level of 1.4340, the GBP / USD fell sharply. The decrease to current levels was almost 10%. Starting in May, GBP / USD is traded in a downward channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which is near the support level of 1.2900.

Below the nearest resistance levels 1.3213 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3248 (EMA50 and the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart), only short positions should be considered.

The negative dynamics is maintained, and if the decline continues, the 1.2900 mark will be the immediate target.

The further target of the decline is the level of 1.2590 (June 2017 lows).

The signal for corrective growth will be a confirmed short-term resistance level of 1.3127 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) breakdown. In this case, the corrective growth can continue to the resistance levels 1.3213, 1.3248.

Short positions are preferred, long-term bearish trend is maintained.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3055, 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2900

Resistance levels: 1.3127, 1.3213, 1.3248, 1.3335, 1.3445


Trading Scenarios


Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3140. Take-Profit 1.3055, 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2900

Buy Stop 1.3140. Stop-Loss 1.3090. Take-Profit 1.3213, 1.3248, 1.3335, 1.3445

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
NZD/USD: Trading Scenarios on the eve of the RBNZ meeting

08/08/2018


Since mid-April, the NZD / USD has been trading in a downward channel, falling from the level of 0.7380. After the breakdown of the important support levels of 0.7240 (the Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014; the wave minimums are near the level of 0.6260), 0.7200 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) the NZD / USD decline accelerated. In July, NZD / USD reached multi-month lows near the 0.6690 mark. However, later, NZD / USD "fell into a drift", having spent July in the range between the levels of 0.6725, 0.6865 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%).

The negative trend persists, and NZD / USD is traded in the descending channel on the daily chart.

In case of breakdown of support levels of 0.6725, 0.6690 NZD / USD will target at May 2016 lows near the 0.6675 mark.

A signal for the development of an upward correction may be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 0.6762 (EMA200 on a 1-hour chart). The correction target may be the level of resistance 0.6865 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the upper limit of the range formed in July). The strong negative dynamics prevails.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the side of sellers.

Below the resistance level 0.6865 short positions are preferred. The global downtrend, which began in July 2014, resumed.

Today at 22:00 (GMT) the decision of the RBNZ on the interest rate will be published. Probably, the interest rate will remain at the same level of 1.75%. If, during a press conference that starts at 11:00 pm (GMT), signals about the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the near future will sound, then the New Zealand dollar may strengthen, including against the US dollar. Nevertheless, the growth of NZD against the USD will be short-term.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.6725, 0.6700, 0.6690, 0.6675

Resistance levels: 0.6762, 0.6807, 0.6865, 0.6900, 0.6965, 0.7010


Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 0.6720. Stop-Loss 0.6765. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6690, 0.6675, 0.6600

Buy Stop 0.6765. Stop-Loss 0.6720. Take-Profit 0.6805, 0.6865, 0.6900, 0.6965, 0.7010

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
WTI: Support and resistance levels

09/08/2018


After in July, the prices for WTI oil reached the next annual maximum near the mark of 73.85 dollars per barrel, later prices fell sharply.

As a result of a sharp decline on Wednesday, the price reached the first important support level of 65.87 (EMA144 on the daily chart).

If downward dynamics develop, the targets will be support levels of 65.50 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the wave of growth, which began in June 2017 with a support level near the 42.00 mark), 64.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the side of sellers.

The bullish trend persists until WTI oil trades above the key support level 64.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

In case of return to the zone above the resistance level of 68.50 (EMA200 on a 4-hour grafik, as well as EMA50 and the lower boundary of an ascending channel on the daily chart), the price increase will resume.

Support levels: 65.87, 65.50, 64.15, 63.00, 61.00

Resistance levels: 68.50, 69.50, 70.00, 72.80, 75.00


*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 65.70. Stop-Loss 66.80. Take-Profit 65.50, 64.15, 63.00, 61.00

Buy Stop 66.80. Stop-Loss 65.70. Take-Profit 68.50, 69.50, 70.00, 72.80, 75.00

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
AUD/USD: Prospects for AUD

14/08/2018



Prospects for AUD look negative against the US dollar.

The unfavorable external background (the intensification of international trade conflicts), as well as the different orientation of the monetary policies of the Fed and the RBA (economists believe that the RBA will not raise rates by the end of 2020), create fundamental prerequisites for further decline of the AUD / USD.

It is necessary to consider the possibility of entering into the short positions on AUD / USD.

This is best done by rolling back to the nearest resistance levels of 0.7290 (EMA200 on the 15-minute chart), 0.7320 (EMA200 on the 30-minute chart), 0.7350 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

The immediate goal of the decline is the support level of 0.7155 (the lows of 2017 and May 2016).

The alternative scenario involves a breakdown of the resistance level of 0.7395 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the continuation of the growth to resistance levels of 0.7500 (minima of December), 0.7580 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

The downward global trend that began in July 2014 predominates. Short positions are preferred.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7155, 0.7100

Resistance levels: 0.7290, 0.7320, 0.7355, 0.7395, 0.7500, 0.7580


Trading Scenarios


Sell in the market. Sell Limit 0.7290, 0.7320, 0.7350. Stop-Loss 0.7370. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7155, 0.7100

Buy Stop 0.7410. Stop-Loss 0.7370. Take-Profit 0.7500, 0.7580

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
AUD/USD: Prospects for AUD

14/08/2018



Prospects for AUD look negative against the US dollar.

The unfavorable external background (the intensification of international trade conflicts), as well as the different orientation of the monetary policies of the Fed and the RBA (economists believe that the RBA will not raise rates by the end of 2020), create fundamental prerequisites for further decline of the AUD / USD.

It is necessary to consider the possibility of entering into the short positions on AUD / USD.

This is best done by rolling back to the nearest resistance levels of 0.7290 (EMA200 on the 15-minute chart), 0.7320 (EMA200 on the 30-minute chart), 0.7350 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

The immediate goal of the decline is the support level of 0.7155 (the lows of 2017 and May 2016).

The alternative scenario involves a breakdown of the resistance level of 0.7395 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the continuation of the growth to resistance levels of 0.7500 (minima of December), 0.7580 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

The downward global trend that began in July 2014 predominates. Short positions are preferred.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7155, 0.7100

Resistance levels: 0.7290, 0.7320, 0.7355, 0.7395, 0.7500, 0.7580


Trading Scenarios


Sell in the market. Sell Limit 0.7290, 0.7320, 0.7350. Stop-Loss 0.7370. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7155, 0.7100

Buy Stop 0.7410. Stop-Loss 0.7370. Take-Profit 0.7500, 0.7580

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
XAU/USD: Support and resistance levels

16/08/2018


Since mid-April, XAU / USD is trading in a downtrend. Below the key resistance level of 1277.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 61.8%) is dominated by a downward trend.

On Thursday, the pair XAU / USD moved into the corrective phase, consolidating to the nearest resistance level at 1185.00 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016).

The signal for buying and developing an alternative scenario will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1200.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In this case, corrective growth can last up to resistance level 1220.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and Fibonacci level of 38.2%). Below this level, sales look safe.

Short positions are preferred. The XAU / USD on Wednesday broke the last strong support level at 1185.00 (the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016).

The breakdown of the support level of 1185.00 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6%) could mean the return of XAU / USD to the global downtrend, which began in October 2012.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1175.00, 1160.00, 1128.00

Resistance levels: 1185.00, 1200.00, 1220.00, 1237.00, 1248.00, 1268.00, 1277.00


Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1174.00. Stop-Loss 1186.00. Take-Profit 1170.00, 1160.00, 1120.00, 1128.00

Buy Stop 1186.00. Stop-Loss 1174.00. Take-Profit 1200.00, 1220.00, 1237.00, 1248.00, 1268.00, 1277.00


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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
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