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Tifia Forex Broker Daily Market Analytics, Analytics and trading recommendations by Tifia Company

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by Tifia FX, Aug 15, 2017.

  1. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

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    EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

    06/06/2019


    As expected by many market participants, the European Central Bank on Thursday left interest rates unchanged. In a statement following the meeting on Thursday, the ECB confirmed its intention to leave the key rate at the current level of -0.40% at least until the end of the year and continue to reinvest the income from bonds into the debt portfolio.

    The euro reacted quite restrained to this news, while the EUR / USD pair rose only by 38 points, to the level of 1.1272.

    Now market participants will closely follow the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi at the press conference, which will begin at 12:30 (GMT). Draghi will present new forecasts by ECB economists, which may reflect lower expectations for economic growth next year. He will also present the conditions of a new long-term lending program for banks.

    With the escalation of risks to the global economy, the uncertainties associated with Brexit and the situation in Italy and after the recent elections to the European Parliament, Mario Draghi can still allow the ECB’s softer monetary policy to be possible in its speech.

    If he gives a signal in this direction, the euro may sharply decline, despite its restrained reaction after the ECB published its decision on interest rates.

    Also at this time (12:30 GMT) data on the balance of foreign trade, non-agricultural labor productivity and applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be published. Positive statistics from the US can give a positive impetus to the dollar and negatively affect the dynamics of EUR / USD. And, conversely, weak macro data from the United States will put pressure on the dollar.

    Meanwhile, after the publication of the ECB decision, the DXY dollar index dropped another 18 points to 97.00, while the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1262 mark.

    Below the resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1315 (EMA144), 1.1365 (EMA200 on the daily chart), long-term negative dynamics prevail.

    After the breakdown of the local support level of 1.1200, a further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at the support levels of 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000 is likely.

    Support Levels: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000

    Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1315, 1.1365


    Trading recommendations


    Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000

    Buy Stop 1.1280. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1315, 1.1365

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  2. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

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    EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

    06/07/2019


    Last Thursday, the ECB, as is well known, kept its monetary policy unchanged, leaving key interest rates unchanged.

    During the press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the ECB is “ready to act and use all the tools at its disposal”, hinting that the bank is ready to lower rates or take other measures if necessary.

    Nevertheless, the EUR / USD pair rose, and the euro peaked from April 17 after the ECB meeting.

    Many economists believe that if the Fed starts to soften the policy, the ECB will probably do the same. Probably already in July, the ECB will announce a rate cut, if the Fed also softens the policy.

    On Friday, the euro and the EUR / USD pair are falling, and the dollar strengthens on the eve of the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market. According to the forecast, in May, 180,000 new jobs were created in the American economy, while unemployment remained at 3.6%. If the data turns out to be weaker than the predicted values, then the dollar may briefly, but drop sharply.

    During this period, a surge in volatility is expected. In the event of a breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1220 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), EUR / USD will return to a bearish trend. The first signal for this will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1258 (ЕМА200 on the 15-minute chart, ЕМА50 on the 1-hour chart) with targets located at the support levels of 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000.

    Below the key resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1310 (EMA144), 1.1365 (EMA200 on the daily chart) the bearish EUR / USD trend prevails.


    Support Levels: 1.1258, 1.1220, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000

    Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1310, 1.1365


    Trading Recommendations


    Sell Stop 1.1250. Stop Loss 1.1290. Take-Profit 1.1220, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000

    Buy Stop 1.1290. Stop Loss 1.1250. Take-Profit 1.1310, 1.1365

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  3. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

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    S&P500: Current Dynamics

    10/06/2019


    US stocks indices rose from the opening of today after last Friday they ended the week as one of the best weeks in the last 6 months. DJIA added 4.7%, S&P500 - 4.4%, and Nasdaq - 3.9%.

    The heightened expectations of the Fed's policy easing led to an increase in US stock indices, which continued to recover from a sharp drop last month amid growing risks of escalating international trade wars.

    Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last Tuesday that the Fed "will act according to the need to maintain growth". The worsening economic outlook strengthens the pressure on the Fed leadership towards easing monetary policy, which leads to an increase in US stock indices.

    At the beginning of the European session, S&P500 futures traded near the 2884.0 mark, above the important short-term support level of 2840.0 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

    Above key support levels of 2810.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and the level of 2335.0), 2800.0 (EMA144), 2781.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the bullish trend prevails.

    The signal for the resumption of sales will be the return of the S&P500 to the zone below the support level of 2840.0. After the breakdown of the key support level of 2781.0, the targets for further reduction of the S&P500 will be the support levels of 2720.0 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 2645.0 (Fibonacci 50%), 2510.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).

    Support Levels: 2858.0, 2840.0, 2810.0, 2800.0, 2781.0, 2720.0, 2645.0, 2573.0, 2507.0

    Resistance Levels: 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0


    Trading recommendations


    Sell Stop 2856.0. Stop Loss 2910.0. Objectives 2840.0, 2810.0, 2800.0, 2781.0, 2720.0, 2645.0, 2573.0, 2507.0

    Buy Stop 2910.0. Stop Loss 2856.0. Objectives 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  4. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

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    AUD/USD: Current Dynamics

    11/06/2019


    Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. This is the first rate reduction since 2016.

    Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, said that the key rate will be reduced to 1% by the end of this year. "The likelihood of lowering interest rates is still not excluded", said Lowe, hinting at the possibility of a further reduction in interest rates. This is a strong negative fundamental factor for the Australian dollar, which continues to decline in the foreign exchange market.

    RBA leaders called increased uncertainty in world trade a risk to the Australian economy. By lowering the interest rate, the RBA is trying to accelerate GDP growth, reduce unemployment to 5%, and accelerate inflation.

    Meanwhile, the situation in global financial markets is gradually calming down after last Friday Donald Trump tweeted that the imposition of duties on goods from Mexico has been canceled, so far.

    Investors are gradually emerging from defensive assets, acquiring more profitable, but also more risky assets of the stock market. The demand for the dollar is also growing, despite expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates.

    At the beginning of the European session, the DXY dollar index futures traded near the 96.72 mark, 14 points higher than the opening price of the current week, and the AUD / USD pair - near the 0.6955 mark.

    Now investors will follow the publication on Thursday (01:30 GMT) data from the Australian labor market. If they turn out to be worse than the forecast or weaker than the previous values, then AUD will accelerate the decline. A positive report on the labor market will support AUD.

    AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend.

    Below the key resistance levels of 0.7085 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7140 (EMA200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.

    Breakdown of short-term support levels of 0.6974 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 0.6962 (ЕМА200 on 1-hour chart) speaks in favor of further reducing AUD / USD with reduction targets located at support levels of 0.6900, 0.6830 (2016 lows), 0.6770.

    Support Levels: 0.6900, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770

    Resistance Levels: 0.6962, 0.6974, 0.7000, 0.7085, 0.7140


    Trading Scenarios


    Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7025. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770

    Buy Stop 0.7025. Stop Loss 0.6940. Take-Profit 0.7085, 0.7140

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  5. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

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    EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

    13/06/2019


    EUR / USD failed to develop an upward correction above the resistance level of 1.1310 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).

    On Wednesday, EUR / USD resumed its decline after the publication at the beginning of the American session of positive macro statistics from the United States, indicating a modest, but still rising inflation in the United States.

    As the US Department of Labor reported on Wednesday, consumer prices in May increased compared to April, but less significantly than expected (in annual terms, +1.8% against the forecast of +1.9% and +2.0% in April). The base consumer price index, which does not take into account food and energy, rose by 2% compared with May 2018, compared with the expected growth of 2.1%.

    Next week, the Fed decides on rates. Published statistics are unlikely to give the Fed a reason to lower rates, although it may signal a decrease in rates in the second half of this year.

    Meanwhile, EUR / USD has remained in the global downtrend since May 2014.

    At the beginning of the European session on Thursday, EUR / USD is trading near support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1278 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

    Breakdown of these support levels will accelerate the EUR / USD decline towards annual lows near the support level of 1.1125.

    Negative dynamics prevails; short positions are preferred.

    Support Levels: 1.1285, 1.1278, 1.1232, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000

    Resistance Levels: 1.1310, 1.1365


    Trading recommendations


    Sell Stop 1.1270. Stop-Loss 1.1320. Take-Profit 1.1232, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000

    Buy Stop 1.1320. Stop Loss 1.1270. Take-Profit 1.1365

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  6. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

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    WTI: Current Dynamics

    14/06/2019


    Despite the rise on Thursday, during the Asian session on Friday, oil prices again resumed their decline. Investors are concerned about weakening demand and increasing oversupply in the United States. Last Tuesday, in the monthly report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its forecast for oil demand growth to 1.2 million barrels per day, or 15% from the previous month, due to concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth.

    The trade conflict between the US and China, the threat to the growth of the world economy and oil demand, as well as the growth of US oil reserves (oil reserves in the country rose to 485 million barrels, the maximum since July 2017) contribute to the increase in the negative trend in the oil market.

    Participants in the oil market also believe that the situation with the attack on tankers could be another geopolitical fear.

    If a deal to reduce oil production by OPEC + (OPEC meeting is scheduled for the end of June) is not extended, the fall in oil prices may accelerate.

    On Friday at 17:00 (GMT), the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes will present a weekly report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. At the moment, their number is 789 units.

    If the report indicates an increase in the number of such installations, this may give an additional negative impetus to prices.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is quoted at $52.00 per barrel, below the important resistance levels of 59.50 (50% Fibonacci level), 59.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 56.85 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 mark to the level of support near the 42.15 mark).

    Mostly negative dynamics. Long-term targets are located near the 42.15 mark (lows of December 2018). Relevant short positions.

    Support Levels: 50.30, 49.00, 42.15

    Resistance Levels: 53.25, 55.40, 56.85, 59.00, 59.50


    Trading Recommendations


    Sell in the market. Stop Loss 53.50. Take-Profit 50.30, 49.00, 43.00

    Buy Stop 53.50. Stop Loss 51.50. Take-Profit 55.40, 56.85, 59.00, 59.50

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  7. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

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    GBP/USD: Current Dynamics

    17/06/2019


    Negative momentum continues to dominate the pound. Domestic political risks are added to weak macro statistics after Theresa May’s resignation from the post of prime minister and against the background of increasing likelihood of a hard Brexit. On Tuesday, the second round of voting for the candidacy of the new head of the Conservatives will take place. A favorite among 6 candidates is Boris Johnson.

    The pound will also be pressured by the risk of early elections in the UK, which may take place in December.

    And this week, investors will follow the meeting of the Bank of England. On Thursday (11:00 GMT) the decision of the Bank of England on the rate will be published. Probably, the rate will remain unchanged, at the level of 0.75%. However, volatility may rise sharply in the foreign exchange market if unexpected statements are made by the management of the Bank of England. Signals in favor of tightening monetary policy, which, however, is unlikely in the current situation, will cause a sharp short-term strengthening of the pound.

    However, below the key resistance levels of 1.2970 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200) long-term negative dynamics prevail.

    Still, short positions are preferred.

    Support Levels: 1.2480

    Resistance Levels: 1.2600, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800


    Trading Recommendations


    Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2620. Take-Profit 1.2480

    Buy Stop 1.2620. Stop Loss 1.25800. Take-Profit 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  8. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

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    AUD/USD: Current Dynamics

    06/18/2019


    As follows from the minutes published on Tuesday (01:30 GMT) from the meeting of the RBA, held on June 4, the bank's management signaled a tendency to further easing of monetary policy. Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, stated that "there is reason to expect a lower key rate". According to the leaders of the central bank, unemployment should fall from the current level of 5.2% to 4.5% in order for inflation to accelerate to the target range of 2% -3%.

    Many economists predict two or more rate cuts this year and a key rate reaching a record minimum of 0.75%.

    This is a strong fundamental factor in favor of further weakening AUD.

    Meanwhile, the attention of financial market participants is shifted to the 2-day Fed meeting, which will end on Wednesday with the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the interest rate decision. Probably, the rate will remain at the same level of 2.5%. However, signals from the leadership of the Fed in favor of lowering the rate by the end of this year will put downward pressure on the dollar. At the same time, the demand for the US dollar is likely to save.

    The US economy looks more resilient in international trade conflicts.

    AUD / USD continues to decline, remaining in a long-term bearish trend since July 2014. The lows of the last wave of decline are located near the mark of 0.6830. A strong negative impulse prevails in anticipation of a further reduction in the RBA interest rate. The immediate goal of the decline is located at around 0.6770 (2019 lows).

    Below the key resistance levels of 0.7070 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7125 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.

    Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770

    Resistance Levels: 0.6865, 0.6910, 0.6955, 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7070, 0.7125


    Trading Recommendations


    Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6880. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770

    Buy Stop 0.6880. Stop Loss 0.6820. Take-Profit 0.6910, 0.6955, 0.6980, 0.7000

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  9. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

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    EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

    19/06/2019


    Since May 2014, EUR / USD remains in the global downtrend. At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, EUR / USD is trading near the 1.1200 mark, below resistance levels 1.1230 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1243 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

    The focus of traders on Wednesday is the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the Fed decision on rates. It is expected that the rate will remain at the same level of 2.5%. Nevertheless, many financial market participants are waiting for signals from the Fed about the possibility of lowering the rate.

    At 18:30 (GMT), the Fed’s press conference will begin. Market participants will analyze the statements of the Fed Chairman to understand how likely a decrease in the rate is in July. The soft tone of the statement and press conference or direct signals aimed at easing monetary policy will cause an increase in stock indices and a fall in the dollar, including against the euro.

    The soft monetary policy of the central bank usually contributes to the cheapening of the national currency.

    In the current situation, technical analysis fades into the background. Probably the most cautious investors would prefer to stay out of the market during this time period.

    Breakdown of the local support level of 1.1180 will accelerate the EUR / USD decline towards annual lows near the support level of 1.1125.

    If the Fed announces a rate cut, at least later this year, the dollar will decline and the EUR / USD pair will go towards resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to a fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.13050 (EMA144 on the daily chart). Below these levels, negative dynamics prevail; short positions still look better.

    Support Levels: 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000

    Resistance Levels: 1.1230, 1.1243, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1355


    Trading Recommendations


    Sell Stop 1.1170. Stop Loss 1.1250. Take-Profit 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000

    Buy Stop 1.1250. Stop Loss 1.1170. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1355

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  10. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

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    USD/JPY: Current Situation

    20/06/2019


    USD / JPY resumed its decline after the Fed meeting ended on Wednesday. As you know, on Wednesday, the Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that "the committee (FOMC) wants a clearer picture of the economic situation". At the same time, Powell also said that "the arguments in favor of additional policy easing were strengthened". This statement was considered by investors as a signal to the Fed rate cut soon, and the dollar fell on sales.

    On Thursday, the management of the Bank of Japan decided to leave the target level of yield on 10-year Japanese bonds around zero, and the short-term deposit rate at -0.1%.

    At the same time, the bank promised to maintain the current extra-soft monetary policy at least until the spring of 2020.

    However, this did not prevent further decline of the USD / JPY pair.

    In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 107.00, the targets for further decline will be the support levels of 106.50 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the pair’s fall correction from the level of 125.65 that began in June 2015), 104.70 (2018 lows).

    A strong negative dynamic prevails. Short positions are preferred.

    Support Levels: 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00, 104.70

    Resistance Levels: 108.35, 108.80, 109.15, 109.70, 110.15, 110.50


    Trading scenarios


    Buy Stop 108.40. Stop Loss 107.40. Take-Profit 108.80, 109.15, 109.70, 110.15, 110.50

    Sell Stop 107.40. Stop Loss 108.40. Take-Profit 107.00, 106.50, 105.00, 104.70

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     

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