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[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: on the eve of the NFP publication

05/07/2019

On Friday, the trades are "on the side" of the dollar, while investors are waiting for publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market. In June, unemployment is expected to remain at the level of 3.6%, while the number of jobs outside the US agricultural sector increased by 165,000, after +75,000 in May.

This is strong data that will support the dollar with the confirmation of the forecast and will force the Fed to wait a little with the rate decrease.

In the American economy, things are not so bad in comparison with other economies, and American consumers continue to actively spend money.

If the growth of new jobs again turns out to be less than 100,000, and unemployment rises, then the markets will take this as a signal to the Fed in the direction of lowering the rate, and by 50 basis points at once. In this case, the pressure on the dollar will resume with a new force.

Meanwhile, the Eurodollar has been declining since the opening of today's trading day. The EUR / USD pair is trading at the beginning of the European session, near the 1.1260 mark, 23 points lower than the opening price of today's trading day. Weak macro statistics, received at the beginning of the European session from Germany, had a negative impact on the euro. In May, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany decreased by 2.2% compared with April, and compared with the same period of the previous year - even more, by 8.6%. The German economy is the locomotive of the entire European economy, and its slowdown will increase the pressure on the ECB towards the adoption of additional incentive measures in the coming months.

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EUR / USD broke through two strong support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1277 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) and continues to decline. The breakthrough of the support level of 1.1265 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) will provoke a further decline of EUR / USD to the targets located at the support levels of 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of the year).

Below resistance levels 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1410 (monthly maximum)

short positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 1.1265, 1.1180, 1.1125

Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1255. Stop Loss 1.1295. Take-Profit 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125

Buy Stop 1.1295. Stop-Loss 1.1255. Take-Profit 1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

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[Tifia FX]

USD/CAD: Current Dynamics

08/07/2019

Unexpectedly strong report on the US labor market for June reduced the likelihood of aggressive easing of the Fed's monetary policy. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of new jobs outside of agriculture in the country in June amounted to +224,000 (against +72,000 in May and the forecast of +165,000 jobs).

Prior to the publication of the report, investors took into account the lowering of the rate at the July Fed meeting by 50 basis points at once. Now investors take into account the 98% probability of lowering interest rates by 0.25% at the Fed meeting on July 30 - 31, according to the CME Group.

This week, investors will follow the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at congressional hearings. If he points out that the Fed will adhere to a softer policy by the end of the year, the dollar will again come under pressure.

On Wednesday (14:00 GMT), the Bank of Canada will decide on the interest rate. It is widely expected that the Bank of Canada at this meeting will leave rates unchanged (at 1.75%).

This is a positive factor for the Canadian currency against the background of the fact that other major central banks are easing their monetary policy.

Also, the Canadian dollar will receive support from the expected increase in oil prices after last week OPEC announced the extension of the transaction to restrict production for 9 months.

Thus, most likely, the pair USD / CAD will retain a tendency to decline.

Last month, USD / CAD broke through the key support level of 1.3260 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and continues to decline in the downward channel on the daily chart.

Downward trend prevails. The targets for the decline are the support levels of 1.3015, 1.2850 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 1.2740 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700).

Consideration of long positions can be returned after the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.3109 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) with the goal at the resistance level of 1.3260. More distant growth targets after the breakdown level of 1.3260 are at resistance levels of 1.3520 (2019 highs), 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).

Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3015, 1.2850, 1.2740

Resistance Levels: 1.3109, 1.3260, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790


Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.3055. Stop Loss 1.3115. Take-Profit 1.3045, 1.3015, 1.2850, 1.2740

Buy Stop 1.3115. Stop Loss 1.3055. Take-Profit 1.3200, 1.3260, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

09/07/2019

The dollar continues to strengthen after the publication on Friday of a strong report on the US labor market, which eased the pressure on the Federal Reserve System in the need to set lower interest rates. Last Friday, the EUR / USD pair broke through strong support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900 level that started in May 2014), 1.1270 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) and continued to decline. On Tuesday at the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1200 mark, remaining under pressure from the strengthening dollar.

According to the results of a poll conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday, inflation expectations for the year and three years ahead in June reached 2.7% versus 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively in May.

The rise in inflation expectations also eases the pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates. Now market participants will closely follow the speeches of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress on the topic of economics and monetary policy.

If he shows a tendency toward a softer monetary policy, then the dollar may react by lowering. And, conversely, Powell’s tough position will cause a further strengthening of the dollar and increase the credibility of the Fed, especially amid Trump’s growing criticism of the Fed.

Powell's speeches are scheduled for Tuesday at 12:45 (GMT) and Wednesday at 14:00.

At the same time, recent comments by the leaders of the European Central Bank point to an early easing of monetary policy. It is possible that the ECB in July will hint at the possibility of lowering interest rates. This may happen in September with the start of a new bond purchase program worth 630 billion euros.

In general, the Eurodollar global bearish trend prevails. Any growth will be limited by resistance levels of 1.1350, 1.1410 (monthly maximum). Below the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions with targets located at the support levels of 1.1180 (June lows) and 1.1125 (Lows of the year) are preferable.

Support Levels: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125

Resistance Levels: 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600


Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1240. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125

Buy Stop 1.1240. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

10/07/2019

Today is full of important economic events.

At 14:00 (GMT) the decision of the Bank of Canada on the interest rate will be published, which is expected to remain at the same level of 1.75%.

At 18:00 (GMT) scheduled publication of the minutes of the June meeting of the Committee on operations on the Fed open market.

However, the focus of investors will be on Powell’s presentation to the US Congress, which will begin at 14:00.

After the release of strong data on the labor market last Friday, many economists believe that the Fed can now postpone the decision on the need for additional measures. If Powell signals about the probability of lowering interest rates by 0.5% already on July 31, the dollar may sharply decline, and EUR / USD will fly above 1.1300, in the direction of recent highs near the 1.1410 mark.

If he hints that the Fed is not going to lower interest rates before September, then EUR / USD will resume the decline and head towards annual lows near the 1.1125 mark.

Powell most likely favors a 25 basis point decrease in interest rates in July. This decision is expected and already included in the price. After some strengthening, EUR / USD is likely to decline to a zone below the support level of 1.1200.

However, when trading today, one should take into account a sharp increase in volatility during his speech. In this situation, technical analysis fades into the background.

However, below the resistance levels of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1410 (June highs), short positions are preferable.

In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). EUR / USD growth above this level will be limited by resistance levels of 1.1410 (monthly maximum), 1.1445 (from a technical point of view).

Support Levels: 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125

Resistance Levels: 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600


Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1245. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125

Buy Stop 1.1245. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

07/11/2019

Shortly after the start of the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the Congress on Wednesday, the dollar fell sharply. Powell’s comments reinforced market participants ’confidence that the Fed would cut interest rates already at the July meeting, although Powell declined to directly answer the question of such a scenario. He stressed that the prospects for the US economy in recent weeks have not improved, noting that the sustainability of inflation weakness "is an argument in favor of a more stimulating monetary policy".

EUR / USD rose on Wednesday by 43 points, closely approaching the resistance level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

Today Eurodollar growth continued. Nevertheless, despite the growth after yesterday's Powell performance, below the resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains. The signal for sales will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

In the alternative scenario, EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with intermediate targets at resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to a fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1305 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart). A rise above resistance level 1.1350 is unlikely. World central banks are alarmed by threats to economic growth from tensions in trade relations. The ECB, like several central banks in other countries, is also leaning towards policy easing, although it has less room for more aggressive easing.

Powell’s second appearance is scheduled for today (14:00 GMT). The trigger for reducing the Eurodollar today can be the publication at 11:30 (GMT) of the minutes from the June meeting of the ECB. Also from the news today we should pay attention to the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of a whole block of important macro statistics from the United States, among which are consumer price indices. Their growth is expected in June by + 0.2% (against + 0.1% in May). If the data is confirmed or will be better than the forecast, the dollar can partially compensate for yesterday's losses and strengthen, including against the euro.

Support Levels: 1.1260, 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125

Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600


Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1250. Stop Loss 1.1285. Take-Profit 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125

Buy Stop 1.1285. Stop Loss 1.1250. Take-Profit 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

12/07/2019

Despite the rise during the Asian session, EUR / USD declines again at the beginning of the European session on Friday. The minutes of the June meeting of the European Central Bank published on Thursday showed that, due to low inflation, the Central Bank management is considering additional ways to stimulate the Eurozone economy. Judging by the protocols, the leadership of the Central Bank is preparing to reduce the key interest rate or restart the bond redemption program by 2.6 trillion euros.

At the same time, the dollar also remains under pressure after the speeches of Fed Chairman Powell in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

He hinted that the leadership of the Fed is mostly inclined to ease monetary policy. Powell reiterated that the Fed intends to "act in an appropriate manner to support economic growth".

Thus, the EUR / USD pair is in the grip of expectations of easing in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB. At the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1260 mark.

Long-term negative dynamics remains below the resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

A signal for sales with targets located at support levels of 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of a year) will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on a 1-hour chart).

In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with an intermediate goal at resistance 1.1305 (EMA144 on the daily chart).

A more aggressive scenario involves the return of EUR / USD to the zone of resistance levels

1.1410 (monthly maximum), 1.1445.

In the current situation and below the resistance level of 1.1285, short positions are preferable.

Support Levels: 1.1260, 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125

Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600


Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1245. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125

Buy Stop 1.1280. Stop Loss 1.1245. Take-Profit 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

NZD/USD: Current Dynamics

15/07/2019

The US dollar continues to decline, while investors remain impressed by the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Last week, Powell signaled the Fed’s readiness to lower interest rates. Investors are waiting for such a decrease already at the Fed meeting on July 30-31. As Powell put it, the purpose of such a decline is to protect the American economy from the risks associated with a slowdown in global economic growth and the uncertainties created by conflicts in international trade.

Last Friday, another Fed official, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a member of the FOMC, Charles Evans, also spoke in favor of lowering interest rates in order to counteract inflation weakness. Evans expects two cuts in the federal funds key interest rate this year.

In the wake of the weakening of the US dollar, the NZD / USD pair broke through on Monday the key resistance level of 0.6710 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and continued to grow at the beginning of the European session, reaching another strong resistance level of 0.6735 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).

In case of consolidation in this zone, the growth of NZD / USD may continue towards the resistance levels of 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction in the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8820, which began in July 2014), 0.6910 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 0.7000 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).

The signal for sales will be the breakdown of the support level of 0.6685 (EMA144 on the daily chart). Immediate targets of decline are at support levels of 0.6664 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6633 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

The trigger for further NZD / USD movement may be the publication (at 22:45 GMT) of the consumer price index for New Zealand for the 2nd quarter, which is a key indicator for estimating inflation. If the forecast is confirmed (+ 0.6% against + 0.1% in the 1st quarter and + 1.7% against + 1.5% in the 1st quarter in annual terms)

the New Zealand dollar is likely to strengthen, including against the US dollar.

Levels of support: 0.6710, 0.6685, 0.6664, 0.6633, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260

Resistance Levels: 0.6735, 0.6800, 0.6865, 0.6910


Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6680. Stop Loss 0.6745. Take-Profit 0.6664, 0.6633, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260

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[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations

07/16/2019

The GBP / USD pair failed to develop an upward corrective movement above the short-term resistance level of 1.2540 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), and on Tuesday fell to 1.2410, resuming the decline in the global downtrend.

Probably, market participants have already taken into account in the price reduction of the Fed rate on July 31 and again focused on the problems around Brexit.

Boris Johnson, who is Theresa May’s most likely successor as prime minister, reiterated on Monday that he was ready for a tough Brexit on October 31, when the UK should finally withdraw from the EU, unless an agreement is reached between the parties.

The pound was also unable to get support after the publication on Tuesday of positive data, according to which, the UK labor market remains in force, despite the slowdown in the economy.

Below the key resistance level of 1.2900 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) long-term negative dynamics prevail. Short positions with a long-term goal, located at the support level of 1.2000, are preferable (2017 lows and Fibonacci 0% level of the correction to a decline of the GBP / USD pair in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).

In the alternative scenario, the corrective growth of GBP / USD may resume, and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2540, GBP / USD will go to resistance levels of 1.2630 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 1.2765 (June highs, February lows).

Above the resistance levels 1.2765, 1.2800 (upper line of the ascending channel on the daily chart) growth is unlikely.

At 17:00 will begin the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Last week, he unambiguously hinted at the inclination of the Fed leadership to ease monetary policy. Now investors will be waiting for new signals from him in relation to the Fed’s actions at a meeting on July 30 - 31. If he does not touch this topic, the reaction to his speech will be weak.

Support Levels: 1.2400, 1.2365

Resistance Levels: 1.2480, 1.2540, 1.2580, 1.2630, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800


Trading Recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2520. Take-Profit 1.2400, 1.2365, 1.2300

Buy Stop 1.2520. Stop Loss 1.2420. Take-Profit 1.2540, 1.2580, 1.2630, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

USD/CAD: Current Dynamics

07/17/2019

Published on Tuesday, the US Department of Commerce data exceeded market expectations. Compared to May, retail sales in June increased by 0.4% and 3.4% (in annual terms). The forecast assumed an increase of 0.1%. In April and May, sales rose 0.4%. This growth has been going on for four months in a row and indicates consumer confidence in the country's economy.

Consumer spending is the main source of growth for the US economy, as they account for two thirds of GDP.

After the release of new data on retail sales, the prospects for a drastic reduction in interest rates have weakened. All three key reports issued after the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee for the Fed, namely, reports on employment, consumer prices and retail sales, were very strong.

Market participants still take into account the rate cut at the Fed meeting on July 30 - 31. However, the probability of lowering interest rates by 50 basis points has decreased, and lowering the rate by 25 or 10 basis points, which would be appropriate after Powell’s statements, is already taken into account in the dollar quotes.

Thus, the space for a further fall in the dollar has decreased. Also take into account the propensity of other central banks to soften policies.

From the news for today, which could significantly increase the volatility in the foreign exchange market, we are waiting for the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data on Canada.

As expected, the core consumer price index (Core CPI) rose in June by 0.1% (+ 2.6% in annual terms). This is positive data that will strengthen CAD when confirming the forecast. Conversely, weak values and indexes worse than forecast will have a negative impact on CAD. Data worse than the forecast can be a driver for the corrective growth of the pair USD / CAD.

The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.3071 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). The growth target in the upward correction is resistance levels of 1.3185 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3250 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

In the event of a breakdown of the resistance level, 1.3250 USD / CAD will head towards the resistance levels of 1.3520 (2019 highs), 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs), which will indicate a full recovery of the bullish trend.

Breakdown of the local support level of 1.3045 will direct USD / CAD towards the lower boundary of the downward channel on the daily chart and at 1.2975.

Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3015, 1.2975, 1.2850, 1.2740

Resistance Levels: 1.3071, 1.3140, 1.3185, 1.3250, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790


Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.3035. Stop Loss 1.3110. Take-Profit 1.3015, 1.2975, 1.2850, 1.2740

Buy Stop 1.3110. Stop Loss 1.3035. Take-Profit 1.3140, 1.3185, 1.3250, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com