1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Tifia Forex Broker Daily Market Analytics, Analytics and trading recommendations by Tifia Company

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by Tifia FX, Aug 15, 2017.

  1. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2016
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    6
    Brent: oil prices jumped on Monday

    26/09/2017

    Overview and dynamics


    Yesterday, oil prices rose sharply. According to analysts of the oil market, several factors contributed to this.

    The first reason is the strengthening of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in connection with the referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan. Prices jumped after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to close the oil pipeline, through which Kurdistan oil is supplied to the world market.

    On the other hand, although the meeting of OPEC and a number of other oil-producing countries held on Friday did not lead to an extension of the contract for limiting production, a statement was made about a higher degree of compliance with quotas. In addition, a number of countries signaled their readiness to extend the deal to reduce production in 2018.

    As a result, on Monday, oil prices reached a maximum in more than two years. The barrel of Brent crude oil was worth 58.55 dollars at the end of yesterday's trading day.

    At the auctions in Asia today oil continued to go up. Brent crude futures for ICE Futures Europe rose 0.08% to 59.07 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude oil reached 58.80, the highest level in the last two years.

    However, at the beginning of the European session, the price of oil is falling, including because of the strengthening dollar.

    Today at 16:45 (GMT), the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen will start in Cleveland, and on Thursday the vice-chairman Stanley Fischer will speak. Last week, the Fed hinted that this year it could raise rates again. According to the CME Group, investors estimate the probability of an interest rate increase in December at 72.8%. And now investors are hoping to get new information about the course of monetary policy of the Fed.

    Today (at 20:30 GMT), the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its weekly report on oil and petroleum products in the US. If the API report indicates a reduction in stocks, then oil prices will receive additional support. The official weekly report from the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products will be released on Wednesday (14:30 GMT). The stock is expected to grow by 2.296 million barrels, which should also support prices.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels

    The price for Brent crude oil broke yesterday the upper limit of the upward channel on the daily chart and reached the level of 58.45 (highs of 2017). The last time at these levels the price was two years ago, in July 2015. The price has been growing for the third month in a row, keeping positive dynamics above the key support level of 54.70 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). Here, the upper limit of the descending channel passes on the weekly chart.

    The decline scenario will be associated with a return to the level 54.70 inside the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which passes near the level of 36.05 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) . The breakdown of support levels 51.50 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) raises the risks of price return to the bearish trend with targets at support levels of 50.00 (lows in August), 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level) 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 36.05 (bottom line of the descending channel on the weekly chart).

    So far, positive dynamics have prevailed. Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers’ side.

    The next medium-term goal in the case of continued growth will be the resistance level of 62.00, near which the lines EMA144, EMA200 pass on the monthly chart.

    Support levels: 58.00, 57.45, 56.75, 55.85, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.50, 50.70, 50.00

    Resistance levels: 58.45, 59.00


    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 57.70. Stop-Loss 58.20. Take-Profit 57.45, 56.75, 55.85, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.50, 50.70, 50.00

    Buy Stop 58.20. Stop-Loss 57.70. Take-Profit 58.45, 59.00, 60.00

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  2. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2016
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    6
    S&P500: dollar and indices grow

    27/09/2017

    Current dynamics


    Today, the financial markets are growing dollar and the resumption of growth in US stock indices. The dollar strengthened after comments from US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen, which increased the likelihood of another increase in interest rates. On Tuesday, Yellen spoke in support of the central bank's plan to raise interest rates.

    "It would be unreasonable to pursue an unchanged monetary policy until inflation returned to 2%," Yellen said. According to the CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of a rate hike in December at 83.1%, while the previous day it was 72.3%. Nevertheless, the propensity of investors to buy risky assets is growing again. Yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to 2.290% from yesterday's level of 2.229%.

    Long-term soft monetary policy has become an important fundamental factor for the growth of the stock market. Now many investors believe that the stock market is able to cope with the gradual tightening of the policy.

    As the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, said earlier, the possibility of a gradual tightening of monetary policy speaks about the strength of the American economy. One increase in rates is not enough to break the bull market. More important factors are the strong corporate reports of US companies, the stable state of the labor market and the growth of the US GDP.

    Today, the administration of the US president and the Republican leaders in the congress will publicize a preliminary tax reform plan that provides for tax cuts on citizens and the US company, and will allow the return of trillions of dollars invested abroad, Trump said. Until now, stock markets have ignored the failures of the administration of the US president, relying mainly on the strong reports of US companies and macro statistics. If the preliminary tax reform plan is adopted in the congress, it will also support the US stock market. Donald Trump's speech should begin at 21:00 (GMT).

    In general, the positive dynamics of the US stock market remains.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels

    Last week, the S & P500 index updated its annual high near the 2507.0 mark, however, it subsequently fell against the backdrop of an escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

    Today, the index resumed growth, trading at the beginning of the European session near the mark of 2500.0.

    In general, the positive dynamics of the index remains. About the reversal of the bullish trend is not yet talking. There is a possibility of further growth in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts. In the event of a breakdown of the local resistance level of 2507.0 (annual and absolute highs), the index's growth will continue.

    In case of a breakdown of the short-term support level 2496.5 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), a downward correction is possible to the support levels 2478.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 2472.0 (EMA50 and the middle of the uplink on the daily chart).

    The medium-term upward movement of the S & P500 index is maintained as long as it trades above the key support level of 2386.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

    Only the breakdown of the support level of 2348.0 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction for growth since February 2016) could significantly increase the risk of the S & P500 returning to a downtrend.

    Support levels: 2496.5, 2478.0, 2472.0, 2463.0, 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2378.0, 2348.0

    Resistance Levels: 2507.0


    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 2492.0. Stop-Loss 2504.0. Objectives 2490.0, 2478.0, 2472.0, 2463.0, 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2378.0

    Buy Stop 2504.0 Stop-Loss 2492.0. Objectives 2507.0, 2510.0


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  3. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2016
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    6
    NZD/USD: RBNZ keeps rate at current level

    28/09/2017

    Current dynamics


    As expected, the RB of New Zealand maintained the current interest rate at the current level of 1.75%. The RBNZ meeting under the leadership of the new manager Grant Spencer took place after the general elections in New Zealand, which did not bring an obvious result. Previously published GDP data showed only a moderate recovery in the country's economic growth after six months of slowdown. At the same time, inflation in the second quarter weakened to 1.7%, which is below the midpoint of the target range of the central bank. If, however, New Zealand begins a period of political instability, then this will have the most negative impact on the national currency of the country.

    The New Zealand dollar reacted rather weakly to the decision of the RBNZ. At the same time, the US dollar continues to grow in the foreign exchange market, including against the New Zealand dollar. The next round of escalation of geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula negatively affects the quotations of currencies in the Asia-Pacific region, including the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.

    Yesterday, the US Republican Party published a draft tax reform, which, according to their calculations, will revitalize the economy, and this week's speech by representatives of the Fed increased investor confidence that interest rates will be raised again in December. The index of the dollar WSJ, which estimates its rate to a basket of 16 currencies, increased by 0.1%, to the level of 86.59 after rising by 0.5% on Wednesday, when it achieved the maximum three-day growth since the beginning of the year.

    The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 2.352% from 2.309% on Thursday, while earlier it showed the highest daily gain since March, indicating an increase in the propensity of investors to buy more risky assets of the US stock market. The growth in the yield of US bonds is accompanied, as a rule, by the growth of quotations of the US dollar.

    Investors began to assess the higher probability of a third rate increase this year, which supports the dollar, as this increases the profitability of US assets. According to the CME Group, investors are now expecting an increase in Fed rates by the end of this year with a probability of 83%.

    Of the news for today, we are waiting for the publication at 12:30 and 13:30 (GMT) of a block of important macro statistics for the US, including the inflation index of personal consumption expenditure and annual GDP data for the second quarter (adjusted values). It is expected that GDP growth in the second quarter was 3% (in annual terms), which will support the US dollar.

    Also at 13:45 and 14:15, representatives of the Federal Reserve Bank Esther George and Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will speak. It is likely that they will support the head of the Fed and will also speak in favor of a third interest rate increase this year that will also support the dollar.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



    Support and resistance levels

    The NZD / USD pair declines for the fourth consecutive day after the elections in New Zealand last weekend.

    At the beginning of the European session, the pair NZD / USD is trading near a strong support level of 0.7180 (EMA200 on the daily chart), restraining the pair from further decline.

    In case of breakdown of this level, the NZD / USD pair decline will accelerate.

    The immediate goal of further decline is the support level of 0.7080 (the lower boundary of the descending channel on the daily chart and EMA200 on the monthly chart).

    The break of 0.6860 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range between 0.7550 and 0.6860) will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and return to the downtrend.

    An alternative scenario involves a return to the zone above the resistance levels of 0.7240

    (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, here are the minimums of December 2016), 0.7250 (EMA200 on the 1-hour graph0, 0.7265 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the resumption of growth in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 0.7850 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).

    The nearest target in case of continuation of growth will be resistance level 0.7430 (September highs and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).

    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts were deployed to short positions.

    Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7180, 0.7100, 0.7080

    Resistance levels: 0.7210, 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7265


    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 0.7160. Stop-Loss 0.7240. Take-Profit 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6900

    Buy Stop 0.7240. Stop-Loss 0.7160. Take-Profit 0.7265, 0.7300, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  4. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2016
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    6
    GBP/USD: pound decreased on data

    29/09/2017

    Current dynamics


    As Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said in an interview with the BBC, the central bank of the UK will raise the key interest rate if the UK economy continues to move the current rate.

    "If the economy will move the current course, then it may be appropriate to raise rates", - said Carney. This increase, in his opinion, could take place quite soon.

    The pound reacted rather weakly to this statement of Mark Carney. Moreover, at the beginning of the European session, the pound declined after the published data showed that the current account deficit of the UK's balance of payments in the second quarter significantly exceeded the forecast (16.00 billion pounds), reaching 23.2 billion pounds. At the same time, GDP growth in the second quarter was confirmed at 0.3%.

    Nevertheless, the pair GBP / USD closes the month and the third quarter with a gain, despite the decline for the second week in a row.

    The expectation of an early interest rate increase in the UK contributes to the purchase of the pound and the growth of its quotes. Earlier, the Bank of England repeatedly signaled that it was preparing for the first more than a 10-year rate hike to limit inflation. Many economists expect that the first increase may take place in November.

    For today, another performance by Mark Carney (14:45 GMT) is planned. From it, participants in financial markets are waiting to clarify the situation regarding the future policy of the central bank of Great Britain. If Mark Carney touches on the topic of monetary policy and confirms the plans of the Bank of England for a rapid increase in the interest rate in the UK, the pound will once again strengthen in the currency market, including the GBP / USD pair.

    Of the news for today, we also expect data from the United States. At 12:30 (GMT) will be published a report of the US Department of Commerce with data on personal income / expenditure of Americans and price indices (for August). If the data prove to be better than forecasted values (slight growth of indicators is expected), the dollar will grow on the foreign exchange market.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels

    Today, the GBP / USD pair continues its corrective decline after active growth at the beginning of the month. Yesterday, GBP / USD broke the short-term support level 1.3437 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and continues to decline to support levels 1.3235 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the pair GBP / USD decline in wave , which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).

    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts were deployed to short positions.

    The breakdown of these levels will cause a deeper correction to the support level of 1.3135 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).

    While the pair GBP / USD is trading above support level 1.2960 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the positive mid-term dynamics of the GBP / USD remains.

    In case of breakdown of the local resistance level 1.3437, the resumption of growth is likely with the targets of 1.3260 (highs of August), 1.3460 (July and September highs of 2016 reached after the referendum on Brexit), 1.3630, 1.3780 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).

    Support levels: 1.3375, 1.3235, 1.3210, 1.3135, 1.3100, 1.3020, 1.2960, 1.2900

    Resistance levels: 1.3437, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3780


    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 1.3345. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3235, 1.3210, 1.3135, 1.3100, 1.3020, 1.2960, 1.2900

    Buy Stop 1.3410. Stop-Loss 1.3345. Take-Profit 1.3437, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3780

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  5. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2016
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    6
    Brent: oil prices are falling

    02/10/2017

    Current dynamics


    At the beginning of the new month and quarter, oil prices are declining. The latest monthly data showed that the volume of oil production in the US in July rose compared with June. According to the report of the Ministry of Energy on Friday, oil production in the US in July was 9.2 million barrels per day compared to 9.1 million barrels in June.

    Investors continued to record profit after strong growth of quotations in the 3rd quarter.

    Quotes of oil at NYMEX finished last quarter with a growth of 12.2% after a decline in the previous two quarters. Growth has become the strongest since the second quarter of 2016.

    In September, WTI oil prices rose by 9.4% amid renewed hopes for the efforts of OPEC and other producers to reduce the world's surplus of oil. In addition, concerns about a recent Kurdish referendum appeared on the market, which could lead to a reduction in supply. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to block the export of Kurdish oil going through Turkey. If its threats are real, then soon the growth of oil prices may follow. Demand for oil in the US also increased, as the refinery recovered after Hurricane Harvey and regained activity.

    On the other hand, there are fears that US producers will continue to increase production even faster to take advantage of the situation of rising prices.

    According to data provided by the oil service company Baker Hughes Inc. on Friday, the number of active drilling rigs in the US rose for the first time in seven weeks. The rise in prices contributed to an increase in activity in the US oil-extracting sector.

    Trading volumes in Asia on Monday were small, as the markets of China, South Korea, India and Hong Kong are closed for the weekend. Since the markets of China and South Korea will be closed all week, this could weaken activity in commodity markets and put pressure on oil prices.

    On Tuesday (at 20:30 GMT), the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its weekly report on oil and petroleum products in the US. If the API report points to an increase in stocks, this will put additional pressure on oil prices. The official weekly report from the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products will be released on Wednesday (14:30 GMT).

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels

    The price of Brent crude oil broke through the short-term support level of 56.60 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and develops a downward trend to key support levels of 55.70 (EMA50 on the monthly chart), 54.70 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart).

    At the end of last month, the price reached the level of 58.80 (highs of 2017). The last time at these levels the price was two years ago, in July 2015. Here, the upper limit of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart.

    If the price falls below the level of 54.70, inside the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which passes near the level of 36.05 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), increase risks of resuming the downtrend with targets at 51.80 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 50.00 (lows in August), 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 36.05 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the weekly chart ).

    Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts were deployed to short positions.

    The resumption of growth will be associated with the return of prices in the zone above the level of 56.60. The next medium-term goal in the case of continued growth will be the resistance level of 62.00, near which the lines EMA144, EMA200 pass on the monthly chart.

    Support levels: 55.70, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.80, 50.70, 50.00

    Resistance levels: 56.60, 57.50, 58.80


    Trading Scenarios


    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 56.70. Take-Profit 55.70, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.80, 50.70, 50.00

    Buy Stop 56.70. Stop-Loss 55.90. Take-Profit 57.50, 58.45, 59.00, 60.00

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  6. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2016
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    6
    Brent: gasoline stocks rose

    04/10/2017

    Current dynamics


    As the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported yesterday in its weekly report on oil and petroleum products, crude oil inventories in the USA fell by 4.1 million barrels over the past week, while gasoline stocks increased by 4.2 million barrels, which significantly exceeded forecasts of analysts of the oil market. The growth in gasoline stocks signals a forthcoming drop in demand for oil from US refineries, which is a negative factor for oil prices.

    During today's Asian session, oil prices fell to nearly 2-week lows, while WTI oil traded near a psychologically important level of $ 50 per barrel. November futures for light sweet crude on the NYMEX traded at $ 50.10 per barrel, with a decrease of $ 0.32 per barrel. December futures for Brent crude fell 0.48% to 55.73 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude was at the beginning of today's European session near the mark of $ 55.50 per barrel.

    After last week, the price of Brent crude oil has reached a new annual maximum near the mark of 58.80, for the seventh consecutive day the price is falling. Investors record profits after oil prices in the third quarter jumped by more than 12%.

    Investors also assess signs of increased oil production. OPEC's production in September was 32.86 million barrels a day, up from the previous month and above the agreed aggregate production ceiling of the cartel (just under 32 million barrels per day), which indicates a violation of OPEC's agreement to cut production.

    On the other hand, American producers are resuming production growth, taking advantage of the situation with rising prices. According to data provided by the oil service company Baker Hughes Inc. on Friday, the number of active drilling rigs in the US rose for the first time in seven weeks, to 750 units. The rise in prices contributed to an increase in activity in the US oil-extracting sector.

    Another point, negative for the dynamics of oil prices, is the seasonal decline in demand for oil in the autumn period.

    The official weekly report from the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products will be released on Wednesday (14:30 GMT). If he also points to the growth of oil products, primarily gasoline, then oil prices will continue to decline.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels

    Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastics) on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts give signals to short positions.

    The price for Brent crude oil is falling to the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and the support level of 54.70 (EMA200 on the 4-hour, weekly charts).

    An alternative scenario will be associated with a price return to the zone above the level of 55.70 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart and EMA50 on the monthly chart).

    The immediate goal in case of resumption of growth is level 56.60. The next medium-term target will be the level of resistance at 62.00, near which there are EMA144, EMA200 lines on the monthly chart. But you can talk about this goal only after the price will update the annual maximum near the level of 58.80.

    So far, negative dynamics have prevailed. If the price falls below the level of 54.70, inside the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which passes near the level of 36.05 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), increase risks of resuming the downtrend with targets at 51.80 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 50.00 (lows in August), 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 36.05 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the weekly chart ).

    Support levels: 55.70, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.80, 50.70, 50.00

    Resistance levels: 56.60, 57.50, 58.80


    Trading Scenarios


    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 55.85. Take-Profit 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.80, 50.70, 50.00

    Buy Stop 55.85. Stop-Loss 55.20. Take-Profit 56.60, 57.50, 58.80, 59.00, 60.00, 62.00


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  7. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2016
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    6
    USD/CHF: the dollar is stable

    05/10/2017

    Current dynamics


    As reported today by the Federal Office of Statistics of Switzerland, the CPI of Switzerland in September increased by 0.2% and 0.7% in annual terms (forecast was + 0.6% and + 0.5% in August). The consumer price index measures the average change in prices for all goods and a service purchased by households for personal consumption, and is a key indicator of inflation. The Swiss National Bank adheres to the policy of extra soft monetary policy and traditionally declares about the overvaluation of the Swiss franc and its high exchange rate.

    The Swiss franc has reacted with a decline in the publication of data, including against the dollar, which remains the leader in the foreign exchange market, pending the publication on Friday of key data on the labor market in the US for September.

    Some economists believe that a significant increase in jobs would justify another increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve System before the end of this year. If NFP grows by less than 100,000, the dollar may fall sharply.

    Also, investors are interested in whom US President Donald Trump recommends to the position of the head of the Federal Reserve after the term of office of the current chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen expires in February.

    The candidatures of the current Fed governor Jerome Powell and former manager Kevin Warsh are being considered. Unlike Powell, Warsh is an ardent critic of the Fed and an opponent of the quantitative easing program. Kevin Warsh is known as an opponent of super-soft monetary policy, while Jerome Powell is a supporter of Yellen.

    The change in the leadership of the US central bank can significantly affect the prospects for monetary policy. Tighter monetary policy usually provides support to the dollar, making US assets more attractive to investors seeking to profitability.

    Also today, volatility in the foreign exchange market could rise sharply from 11:30 (GMT), when information is published from the ECB's September meeting on monetary policy. The information contained in the protocols can shed light on the prospects of the QE program in the Eurozone.

    At 13:10, 13:15, 14:00 (GMT), speeches of FRS management members Jerome Powell, John Williams and Patrick Harker are scheduled. It is likely that they will also speak in favor of another increase in the interest rate in the US before the end of the year, which the dollar will support.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels

    At the beginning of the European session, the pair USD / CHF is trading near the key resistance levels 0.9765 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.9770 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and from the level of 1.0300).

    Concerns about geopolitical tensions have declined, and the dollar has received support from the Fed, which confirmed its intention to raise the rate in December, and from positive US macro data coming in recently.

    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of buyers.

    Breakdown of resistance levels 0.9765, 0.9770 will provoke further growth of USD / CHF with targets at the levels of 0.9840, 0.9875 (Fibonacci level of 50%).

    The alternative scenario involves breakdown of support levels 0.9730 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.9700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) and further decline with targets at support levels 0.9650 (Fibonacci level 23.6% and EMA200 on 4-hour chart), 0.9300 (lower limit downlink on the weekly chart).

    So far, long positions are preferable.

    Support levels: 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300

    Resistance levels: 0.9765, 0.9770, 0.9800, 0.9840, 0.9875


    Trading Scenarios


    Buy Stop 0.9780. Stop-Loss 0.9740. Take-Profit 0.9800, 0.9840, 0.9875

    Sell Stop 0.9740. Stop-Loss 0.9780. Take-Profit 0.9700, 0.9670, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  8. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2016
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    6
    XAU/USD: dollar and labor market data in the US - the focus of traders

    06/10/2017

    Current dynamics


    In recent days, gold prices have been under pressure amid strong US economic data. They strengthened expectations of another increase in interest rates before the end of the year. With an increase in the interest rate in the US, the price of gold usually falls, if the calm geopolitical and financial and economic situation in the world also contributes to this.

    According to CME Group, the markets take into account the 83% chance of raising rates this year against 44% a month ago.

    With an increase in interest rates, precious metals, including gold, usually become cheaper, if the geopolitical situation at this time remains stable. Gold, which does not bring investment income and can not compete with more profitable assets, becomes cheaper, as the cost of borrowing for its acquisition and storage grows with an increase in the interest rate.

    The volume of trading is not large before the publication today at 12:30 (GMT) of the report on the number of jobs outside of US agriculture. Some economists believe that a significant increase in jobs would justify another increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve System before the end of this year. If NFP grows by less than 100,000, the dollar may fall sharply.

    At the same time, the market can ignore NFP data, because the number of employees could have decreased due to recent hurricanes. The most important detail in the report on US employment may be a pay indicator. For five consecutive months, the growth of salaries in the US remained unchanged at 2.5% compared to the same period of the previous year. Now it is expected that the indicator will remain unchanged. This is a negative factor for the dollar, despite the fact that unemployment will remain at the same low level of 4.4%.

    In any case, at 12:30 (GMT) we should expect a dramatic surge in volatility, not only in gold prices, but throughout the currency market, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions. The most cautious trading position for today is to stay out of the market.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels

    Since the opening of today, the pair XAU / USD is trading in a narrow range near the support level 1270.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart).

    The scenario for the decline will be related to the breakdown of the support level of 1262.00 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart). The immediate target is the support level of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016). Breakdown of the key support level of 1248.00 will provoke a further decline in the pair XAU / USD and its return to the downtrend.

    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts recommend short positions.

    The fundamental background (tightening of monetary policy in the US) creates the prerequisites for further reduction of XAU / USD, unless there is another escalation of geopolitical tensions, including on the Korean peninsula.

    The alternative scenario is connected with the breakdown of the nearest resistance level at 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) and further growth with a long target of 1357.00 (annual highs). The more distant goal is at the level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100% and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart).

    Support levels: 1270.00, 1262.00, 1248.00

    Resistance levels: 1277.00, 1293.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00


    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 1265.00. Stop-Loss 1275.00. Take-Profit 1262.00, 1260.00, 1248.00

    Buy Stop 1275.00. Stop-Loss 1265.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1290.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  9. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2016
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    6
    EUR/USD: investors believe in the future of the European economy

    09/10/2017

    Current dynamics


    As the indicator of Sentix investors' confidence published today shows, investors believe in the future of the European economy. This is the leading indicator of the economic health of the Eurozone, as changes in investor sentiment may be an early signal for future economic activity.

    For October, the indicator Sentix came out with a value of 29.7 (forecast was 28.5 and 28.2 in the previous month). In the monthly survey of Sentix, 1,600 financial analysts and investors participate, and this is the highest value of the indicator since March 2008 and since July 2016.

    According to the report, the mood of investors was practically not affected by the results of the elections to the German Bundestag, where the ruling "Christian Democratic Union" (CDU) received 33% of the votes of the deputies - the weakest result for this party since 1949. New elections in Germany are unlikely, but it is possible that if the winning ruling party, Angela Merkel, has problems in finding supporters for the bloc. Political instability in this country could have the most negative impact on the positions of the single currency.

    The referendum in Catalonia also seems to have had little effect on investor sentiment.

    The German industrial production figures published in August show that the country's economy has overcome the seasonal decline and has returned to growth. Germany's industrial production in August grew by 2.6% compared with July (forecast was + 0.7%).

    Production orders in Germany in August rose by 3.6% (+ 0.7% in the previous report) and 7.8% in annual terms (+ 4.7% in the previous report). At the same time, export orders in the manufacturing sector in Germany grew by 4.3%. Such positive data were presented by the Statistical Office of Germany last Friday. The latest data show a positive outlook for Germany's GDP growth in the third quarter.

    Germany remains the center of the European Union, and its economy is the locomotive of the European economy. Positive macro statistics from Germany can testify to positive growth prospects not only of the German, but of the entire Eurozone economy.

    Today in the US is a day off (Columbus Day). American exchanges are closed, so the trading volume will be low.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels

    The EUR/USD continues to trade near the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart, passing near the mark 1.1705.

    The breakdown of the support level 1.1705 will provoke a decline to support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). The break of this level will open the way to support levels 1.1360 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900).

    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the side of sellers.

    The alternative scenario involves the return of the EUR/USD to the zone above the resistance levels 1.1780 (EMA50 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 1.1820 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the resumption of growth in the uplink on the weekly chart 1.2180 (the upper border of the channel and the Fibonacci level of 50%). The first signal for growth will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1.1765 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

    Support levels: 1.1705, 1.1630, 1.1360, 1.1285

    Resistance levels: 1.1765, 1.1780, 1.1820, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180


    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 1.1710. Stop-Loss 1.1770. Take-Profit 1.1670, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1400

    Buy Stop 1.1770. Stop-Loss 1.1710. Take-Profit 1.1800, 1.1820, 1.1870, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  10. Tifia FX

    Tifia FX TifiaFx Representative

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2016
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    6
    XAU/USD: growing geopolitical tensions provoked purchases of gold

    10/10/2017

    Current dynamics


    Increasing anxiety about possible geopolitical shocks again creates prerequisites for a rise in gold prices. On Saturday, US President Donald Trump again announced the possibility of a military solution to the conflict with North Korea. On Sunday, the US and Turkey mutually suspended the issuance of nonimmigrant visas. In addition, at the weekend in Barcelona, protest rallies were held regarding the outcome of the referendum in Catalonia. Today, the President of Catalonia Carles Puicdemont must speak in the regional parliament. It can proclaim the independence of the region, which can cause the volatility to increase in trading on financial markets and again increase the demand for gold.

    On Monday, December gold futures for COMEX closed with an increase of 0.8%, at a level of 1285 US dollars per troy ounce. The spot price for gold at the beginning of today's European session was near the mark of 1290.00 dollars per ounce.

    Meanwhile, traders continue to study the US labor market report published on Friday, which strengthened investors' expectations about the December rate hikes. In periods of rising interest rates, gold prospects deteriorate as gold can not compete with more profitable assets, such as treasury bonds, as the cost of acquiring and storing gold increases.

    The Fed regularly reminds that it will not abandon its plan to gradually raise interest rates, and this is a negative factor for the price of gold.

    Market participants will study the text of the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee, which will be published on Wednesday (18:00 GMT) to understand how the Fed's FOMC members' rhetoric has changed about interest rate plans. According to the CME Group, the markets take into account the 85% chance of raising rates this year against 44% a month ago.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



    Support and resistance levels

    Since the opening of today, the XAU/USD is growing, and at the beginning of the European session is trading near the 1290.00 mark and the resistance level (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart).

    The scenario for strengthening the XAU/USD is connected with the breakdown of the resistance level of 1290.00 and further growth with a long target of 1357.00 (annual highs).

    The more distant goal is at the level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100% and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart).

    The reverse scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016) and further decrease to the key support level of 1262.00 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart).

    The breakdown of the support level of 1248.00 (50% Fibonacci level) will provoke further decline of the XAU/USD and its return to the downtrend.

    The fundamental background (the tightening of monetary policy in the US) creates the prerequisites for the reduction of XAU/USD. However, the growth of geopolitical tensions in the world again brings buyers back to the gold market.

    Support levels: 1277.00, 1270.00, 1262.00, 1248.00

    Resistance levels: 1290.00, 1293.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00


    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 1284.00. Stop-Loss 1294.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1270.00, 1262.00, 1248.00

    Buy Stop 1294.00. Stop-Loss 1284.00. Take-Profit 1300.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     

Share This Page