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Tifia FX

TifiaFx Representative
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30
XAU/USD: positive dynamics of gold remains

24/03/2020


At the beginning of this month, having reached a new, more than 7-year high, near the mark of 1703.00, over the next 2 weeks the XAU / USD pair fell by 250 points (more than 17%), to the 1452.00 mark. Investors were forced to sell their gold reserves, hedging stock market transactions and covering margin stake requirements.

However, the growth of gold quotes seems to have resumed. Having bounced from the strong support levels of 1496.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1484.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00), the XAU / USD has increased by 6.5% since the beginning of the week, today reaching an intraday maximum near the mark of 1611.00.

The aggressive stimulating actions of the Fed and the weakening of the dollar against this background contribute to the growth of gold quotes.

On Monday, the Fed announced new measures to stimulate the US economy and stabilize financial markets. Now the Fed intends to buy government bonds and securities issued by mortgage agencies if necessary in unlimited quantities. Over the past week, the Fed's balance sheet increased by $ 350 billion, to a record $ 4.7 trillion. According to CNBC, the Fed’s incentive measures are the most aggressive market intervention by the Fed since its inception.

After the Fed has approached the limit of its ability to support the economy, reducing its interest rates to almost zero and pouring billions of dollars into the financial system, investors are now waiting for no less strong action from the US government.

According to media reports, the US government is working on a large-scale package of incentive measures to help businesses and citizens. The amount of the package may exceed $ 1 trillion. However, last Sunday the US Senate did not reach an agreement on the rescue package, which includes assistance to companies and households.

Demand for gold and other protective assets will continue until the coronavirus epidemic declines, the global economy begins to recover, and the Fed does not think about tightening its monetary policy. And this is still very far away.

In the current situation, long positions are preferred. Above the short-term support levels of 1538.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 1575.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), purchases look safe, and above the support level of 1496.00, the long-term positive dynamics of XAU / USD remains.

Support Levels: 1587.00, 1575.00, 1555.00, 1538.00, 1496.00, 1484.00, 1450.00

Resistance Levels: 1611.00, 1703.00, 1718.00



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 1550.00. Stop-Loss 1613.00. Take-Profit 1538.00, 1496.00, 1484.00, 1450.00

Buy "by the market". Stop-Loss 1550.00. Take-Profit 1611.00, 1703.00, 1718.00







*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

Tifia FX

TifiaFx Representative
Messages
30
USD/JPY: investors are not yet ready to actively sell the dollar

25/03/2020


After the measures announced by the Fed last Monday, investors cheered up a bit and markets revived. The Fed launched the printing press at full capacity and poured billions of dollars into the financial system. Over the past week, the Fed's balance sheet increased by $ 350 billion, to a record $ 4.7 trillion.

Last Tuesday, US stock indices showed record growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by more than 11%, showing the largest single-day growth in almost 90 years. The S&P 500 gained 9.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite - 8.1%. On Wednesday, the growth of futures for US stock indexes continued in the first half of the trading day.

Nevertheless, despite the Fed’s aggressive stimulus measures, investors are not yet ready to actively sell the dollar, although this moment may come - abruptly and “as always”, unexpectedly.

The pair USD / JPY continues to trade in the range of the last 5 days (between support / resistance levels of 109.70 / 111.70). A summary of the views of Bank of Japan executives published Tuesday evening (23:50 GMT) states that “the consequences of a coronavirus pandemic can be long-lasting and significant”, and “the bank can take timely action as part of an emergency meeting”, if the need arises.

Last week (March 16), the Bank of Japan this time chose not to lower the key rate, leaving it at -0.1%, and the target level of yield on 10-year government bonds in Japan is about zero. The Bank of Japan said it would double ETF purchases to 12 trillion yen ($ 112 billion) a year, and raised the target level of corporate bonds on its balance sheet to 4.2 trillion yen from 3.2 trillion yen, and commercial paper to 3.2 trillion yen from 2.2 trillion yen.

The Bank of Japan also confirmed its intention to buy Japanese government bonds of 80 trillion yen per year (over the past year, he bought them of about 14 trillion yen).

Japanese stock index Nikkei Stock Average also rose on Tuesday by 8%, showing the largest percentage increase since October 2008.

In a quiet market, with the growth of the Nikkei Stock Average, the pair USD / JPY also usually grows. Nevertheless, in the current rapidly changing situation, it is probably still better to focus on technical analysis and on the breakdown of the levels and / or boundaries of the range formed in the last days (between support / resistance levels of 109.70 / 111.70).

Support Levels: 110.50, 110.15, 109.70, 109.25, 108.85, 108.50

Resistance Levels: 111.70, 112.20, 113.10



Trading Scenarios


Buy Stop 111.80. Stop Loss 109.20. Take-Profit 112.20, 113.10, 114.00, 115.00

Sell Stop 109.20. Stop Loss 111.80. Take-Profit 109.00, 108.85, 108.50, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00, 104.00, 103.00, 102.00
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

Tifia FX

TifiaFx Representative
Messages
30
WTI: pessimism keeps prices at multi-year lows

26/03/2020


Oil quotes remain under pressure. The pessimism of the oil market participants associated with the price war among the largest oil producers, the coronavirus pandemic and the slowdown in the global economy, and as a result - a decrease in oil demand, is pushing oil prices towards new multi-year lows.

Having broken through the key support level of 57.00 (EMA200 on the daily and weekly charts) in January, the price of WTI crude oil rushed down, updating the record for falling in March. The 4-year low at the psychologically important support level of 26.00 also could not resist, and the price fell last week to record lows near the mark of $ 20.00 per barrel.

The decline in WTI crude oil over the past 3 months has been 78% to date. Last week, a new anti-record was broken when WTI oil quotes fell to around $ 20.05 per barrel.

On Thursday, oil market participants will follow an emergency G20 summit where statements can be made regarding the price war between major oil producers. Investors still hope that the price war between leading oil exporters, including the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia, will end soon.

This is a positive factor for oil quotes.

At the same time, quarantine measures taken in connection with the coronavirus pandemic, according to economists, can lead to a decrease in April of global oil demand by 18.7 million barrels per day. Such a large-scale drop in demand can outweigh any reduction in oil production, including a possible freeze or restriction of OPEC production, oil market analysts say.

Currently, a strong negative impulse prevails, holding oil quotes near multi-year lows.

The first timid signal for purchases may be a breakdown of the resistance level of 26.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart and the recent 4-year low). In case of further growth and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 30.80 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall from this year's highs near 65.65 to the local minimum of 20.05), the price may go towards the level of 52.00, through which EMA200 on the daily chart is currently passing.

However, short positions are preferred, which are best entered at the rebound from the nearest resistance zone near the levels of 26.00, 27.00, 28.00, 29.00, 30.00.

Support Levels: 23.00, 22.00, 21.00, 20.00

Resistance Levels: 26.00, 28.10, 30.80, 37.40, 42.80, 44.00, 48.20, 50.30, 52.00



Trading Recommendations


Sell by market. Sell-Limit 26.00, 27.00, 28.00. Stop-Loss 28.50. Take-Profit 23.00, 22.00, 21.00, 20.00

Buy Stop 28.20. Stop-Loss 25.80. Take-Profit 30.80, 37.40, 42.80, 44.00, 48.20, 50.30, 52.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
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