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[Tifia FX]

NZD/USD: Janet Yellen did not mention the topic of raising rates

28/08/2017

Current dynamics

The head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, disappointed investors who were betting on the growth of the US dollar, after not speaking last Friday on the topic of monetary policy and not signaling a further increase in the rate.

The US dollar fell sharply on Friday, and 10-year US government bonds rose in price. Their yield on the basis of trading on Friday was 2.169% against 2.194% on Thursday. Gold futures on Friday in the US rose in price by 0.4%, to 1291 dollars per ounce.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar became the leader of the decline last week after the New Zealand government lowered its forecast for economic growth for 2017-2018. Treasury Secretary Steven Joyce said that in the next four years, the average growth rate of New Zealand's GDP could reach 3%, whereas earlier it was forecasted an average annual growth rate of 3.1%.

The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure also on the eve of the forthcoming parliamentary elections in the country, scheduled for September 23. On September 27, the RBNZ regular meeting on monetary policy will be held.

In early August, RBNZ kept the current interest rate in New Zealand at the same level of 1.75%. The RBNZ stated that against the backdrop of "many uncertainties", monetary policy "will remain soft in the foreseeable future", but "can be adjusted accordingly". For a stable recovery of the New Zealand economy and rising inflation, "a lower New Zealand dollar rate is needed".

It is likely that the interest rate will remain at the current level of 1.75%, and in the RBNZ will once again confirm the bank's propensity to pursue a soft monetary policy, which will keep the pressure on the New Zealand currency.

For today, the economic calendar is empty. In the course of the American session, a correction is likely on the US dollar against its decline on Friday.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Technical analysis

In July, the pair NZD / USD reached a new annual high near the mark of 0.7550 (Fibonacci level of 50% and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart). However, the further growth of the pair stalled. In the future, as a result of the active decline, NZD / USD broke through the important support levels of 0.7300 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 0.7240 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the low of December 2016) and decreased to the level of support 0.7190 (EMA144 on the daily chart).

The pressure on the New Zealand dollar and the NZD / USD pair persists.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.

It is likely that the decline will continue to levels 0.7190, 0.7165 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

In the case of breakdown at the level of 0.7165, a further decline to support levels of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and a lower range between 0.7550 and 0.6860 levels) is possible. At the level of 0.6860 are also the minimums of December 2016 and May 2017. A break at the level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the downward trend.

The alternative scenario involves a return to the zone above the level of 0.7300 and a resumption of growth towards the annual maximum and the resistance level of 0.7550 (50% Fibonacci level and the upper limit of the uplink on the weekly chart).

Support levels: 0.7190, 0.7165

Resistance levels: 0.7300, 0.7320, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7220. Stop-Loss 0.7260. Take-Profit 0.7190, 0.7165

Buy Stop 0.7260. Stop-Loss 0.7220. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7320, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

Brent: amid the hurricane in the US

29/08/2017

Current dynamics

The dollar continues to decline actively in the foreign exchange market. Nevertheless, on oil prices denominated in dollars, so far this fact is reflected little. Much more impact on oil prices had a storm in the US in the Houston area, a hurricane, later a "tropical storm", Harvey. Hurricane caused damage to oil refineries located in this part of the US, leading to their closure. Nearly 30% of the country's oil refining facilities are located on the Texas coast. Also, several offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were closed, accounting for about 22% of offshore oil production in the Gulf. Their closure will negatively affect oil demand in the US, and will also affect world oil prices. According to experts of the oil market, the negative impact of the consequences of the storm can drag on for several weeks, because it will take time to restart the refinery. Even yesterday, futures for Brent crude on ICE Futures fell 1.3% to 51.74 dollars per barrel. Today, oil prices continued to decline. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of today's European session was close to $ 51.00 per barrel.

Wednesday (14:30 GMT) will publish weekly data of the Ministry of Energy on oil reserves in the US. Decrease in demand from the refinery will probably cause an increase in inventories, since oil produced earlier and domestically is not being processed.

This can cause pressure on oil prices. Also today, it is worth paying attention to the weekly published data at 20:30 (GMT) on oil reserves from the American Petroleum Institute, which largely correlates with official data from the US Energy Ministry.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

The price of Brent oil broke through the short-term support level of 51.65 (EMA50 on the 4-hour chart, EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and found support today at 50.95 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart). Short-term negative dynamics prevails. In case of breakdown of the support levels of 50.95, 50.70 (EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), the decline may last to the support level of 50.00 (lows August). Further objectives are support levels 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (year lows). A more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart), which increases the risks of price return in the bearish trend.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts again moved to the side of sellers.

In case of resumption of growth and breakdown of resistance level 52.20, the target will be 52.90 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 53.40 (August highs), 54.70 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the upper bound of the rising channel on the daily chart).

Support levels: 50.95, 50.70, 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70

Levels of resistance: 51.65, 52.20, 52.90, 53.40, 54.00, 54.70


Trading Scenarios

Sell by the market. Stop-Loss 51.70. Take-Profit 50.90, 50.70, 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20

Buy Stop 51.70. Stop-Loss 50.80. Take-Profit 52.00, 52.20, 52.90, 53.40, 54.00, 54.75

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: the dollar continues to weaken

30/08/2017

Current dynamics

The sharp increase in EUR / USD, observed from the beginning of the year and, especially, in recent days, is connected both with the weakening of the dollar and with the continuing purchases of the euro. Heads of the Fed and the ECB did not make any hints at the last conference in Jackson Hole about the timing of further interest rate hikes. Investors regarded this as the Fed's tendency to soft monetary policy and that the current euro rate is satisfied with the ECB leaders.

Since the beginning of this year, the trade-weighted index of the euro has increased by more than 7%. This was the best result for the currency since its inception in 1999.

The single European currency receives support and against the backdrop of strengthening the economy of the Eurozone, which is often mentioned by the head of the ECB Mario Draghi. Euro since the beginning of the year it has added more than 14% against the dollar. The pair EUR / USD has reached the maximum mark since January 2015.

In the minutes of the July meeting of the ECB, there were "concerns about the rise in value (euro) in the future". Nevertheless, many economists believe that the ECB will begin to wind down the bond purchase program in December this year. The ECB simply does not have assets to buy.

At the same time, the ECB is in a difficult situation, since inflation is below the target level of just under 2.0%. Still, the ECB is likely to have to roll back the stimulus even if the outlook for inflation worsens.

In view of this, it is likely that the euro will continue to grow. Much will depend also on the pace at which the ECB will begin to reduce purchases of assets.

Today we are waiting for the data from the USA. Starting at 12:15 (GMT) a number of important macroeconomic indicators will appear, including the report on employment from ADP for August, data on spending on personal consumption in the US for the second quarter, annual GDP for the second quarter. In this period, a surge in volatility is expected in trading in financial markets, including the EUR / USD pair, which should be taken into account when opening trade positions at this time.

The GDP is expected to grow by 2.7% (against + 2.6% in the first quarter). If the forecast is justified, the dollar will receive support. Meanwhile, the prospect of further weakening of the USD and the growth of the EUR / USD pair remains.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Despite the current corrective decline, the pair EUR / USD keeps positive dynamics, trading in the uplink on the daily chart.

Yesterday EUR / USD set another 4-month record, reaching 1.2070 and returning to the levels of December 2014.

If the growth resumes, the targets will be the levels of 1.2050 (low of July 2012), 1.2070, 1.2180 (the Fibonacci level of 50% of the corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline from 1.3900), 1.2370 (EMA200 on the monthly chart).

You can return to consideration of short positions in case of EUR / USD return to support level 1.1780 (Fibonacci level 38.2%). The breakthrough of support level 1.1620 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) increases the risk of EUR / USD returning to a downward global trend.

Support levels: 1.1890, 1.1835, 1.1780, 1.1720, 1.1670, 1.1620

Resistance levels: 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2180


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1920. Stop-Loss 1.1985. Take-Profit 1.1890, 1.1835, 1.1780, 1.1720, 1.1670, 1.1620

Buy Stop 1.1985. Stop-Loss 1.1920. Take-Profit 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2180

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

S&P500: indexes rose against the backdrop of strong macro data

31/08/2017


Current dynamics

Strong macro data, received from the US at the beginning of today's US session, caused the growth of the main US stock indices. Nasdaq Composite climbed 18.00 points (0.30%), S & P500 rose 6.34 points (0.26%), DJIA started trading with an increase of 47.83 points (0.22%).

Personal incomes of Americans in July increased by 0.4% (the forecast was + 0.3%), personal expenses (indicator, estimating household costs) in July, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, increased by 0.3% (forecast was +0, 4%). The increase in income raises the Americans' confidence in the government and economy.

Consumer spending accounts for the bulk of US GDP. Published on Thursday, the report showed that the annual growth in US GDP in the 2nd quarter of this year was 3%. Presented by the US Department of Commerce data indicate a positive momentum in the US economy in the second half of the year.

However, the price index for personal consumption expenditure (RFE), the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, rose 0.1% in July from the previous month after a lack of growth in June and a drop of 0.1% in May. Compared to the same period last year, the index grew by 1.4%, which is below the target level of the Fed, which is 2%.

Presented today by the US Department of Labor data indicate a steady increase in employment. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits was 236,000 in the week of August 20-26. The number of primary applications has fluctuated historically in the past few years. They remain below 300,000 for 130 consecutive weeks, which is the longest period since 1970. As a percentage of labor, the indicator of layoffs is at the lowest level since the 1960s.

Secondary applications for unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 to 1.942 million. The consistently low level of applications for unemployment benefits is one of the signs of a strong labor market, which is approaching the state of maximum employment.

Against the backdrop of the data, US stock indexes rose. The growth of the indices continues, therefore, for the fourth trading session in a row, and for the seventh month in a row, which indicates the confidence of investors in the strength of the American economy.

At the same time, the weakness of inflationary pressures in the US economy makes it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates before the end of the year.

Thus, the data presented today contribute to the further growth of the US stock market. It seems that the consequences of Hurricane Harvey, the geopolitical tensions associated with the terrorist attacks in Europe and the provocations with missile launches by North Korea are receding into the background. And, in general, the positive dynamics of the US stock market remains.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Twice this month, pushing away from the support level of 2418.0 (the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart), the S & P500 index keeps positive dynamics and is traded in the uplink on the weekly chart. There is a possibility of further growth.

The alternative scenario will be connected with the breakdown of the short-term support level 2450.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the continuation of the decline with the targets 2405.0 (June-July low and the lower limit of the uplink on the weekly chart), 2390.0 (March highs).

The upward trend in the S & P500 index is maintained as long as it trades above the key support levels of 2365.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2325.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to growth since February 2016). About the reversal of the bullish trend is not yet talking.

Support levels: 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2365.0, 2325.0

Resistance levels: 2473.0, 2481.0, 2489.0, 2500.0


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2454.0. Stop-Loss 2474.0. Objectives 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2365.0, 2325.0

Buy Stop 2474.0. Stop-Loss 2454.0. Objectives 2481.0, 2489.0, 2500.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

DJIA: US stock indexes continue to grow

01/09/2017

Current dynamics

Major US stock indexes began the month with a slight increase. Investors are waiting for a monthly report on the US labor market, which will be published at 12:30 (GMT). This report is extremely important in assessing the prospects for the dollar and the US stock market, because it characterizes the stability of the US economy, the largest in the world. On Thursday, US stock indexes rose thanks to a series of positive macro data. According to a report published by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday, the costs and incomes of Americans grew quite rapidly in July.

The index of prices for personal consumption expenditure (PCE) increased by 1.4% compared to the same period of the previous year. The income of Americans in July rose by 0.4% compared to June, which was the strongest growth since February. Americans have a large amount of cash for the next few months ahead, which could have a positive impact on GDP growth.

Data from ADP for August, which characterize the level of employment in the private sector of the US economy, also came out better than the forecast, indicating that the labor market is approaching full employment.

And at the same time, the US economy has a controversial situation: the growth of consumer spending in combination with the fall in unemployment indicates a fairly rapid and stable economic growth. However, inflation still remains slow, below the target level of the Fed in 2%.

In the data block from the US labor market, investors are particularly interested in the wage growth indicator, which will be used to judge the prospects for monetary policy in the coming months. Although unemployment is low and job creation is stable, wages have been rising at a moderate pace for a long time.

In view of the low inflation of space, the Federal Reserve has little to raise rates.

According to futures on federal funds, which track the CME Group, investors estimate the probability of a rate hike by the end of December at 37%.

And yet, the overall state of the US economy is encouraging, prompting investors to buy high-yielding high-risk assets. This is evidenced by the multi-month bullish trend of the US stock market.

And, if today's publication of data from the US labor market is also positive, close to the forecast values, the US stock indexes will continue to grow.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

DJIA maintains positive dynamics and continues to grow in the uplink on the daily chart, striving for the level of 22177.0 (the highs of the year and August).

Long positions are relevant. Only in case of breakdown of the important support levels 21800.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 21700.0 (EMA50 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), we can return to consideration of short positions on the DJIA.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts are on the buyers side.

In case of breakdown of the support level 21700.0, the target of the decrease may be support levels 20750.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 20630.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave, and the Fibonacci level of 0%, is near the mark of 22177.0). Levels 20750.0, 20630.0, thus, are key to long-term bullish trend of DJIA.

Support levels: 21800.0, 21700.0, 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20750.0, 20630.0

Resistance levels: 22060.0, 22177.0, 22300.0


Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 22050.0. Stop-Loss 21950.0. Take-Profit 22177.0, 22300.0, 22350.0

Sell Stop 21950.0. Stop-Loss 22050.0. Take-Profit 21800.0, 21700.0, 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20750.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: amid talks on Brexit

04/09/2017

Current dynamics

The GDP growth in the UK this year has significantly slowed. Economic growth in the 1st and 2nd quarters was half that of the last three months of 2016.

High inflation, exceeding the target level of the Bank of England, continues to reduce the disposable income of the British, which reduces domestic demand. The British economy, largely dependent on domestic consumption, grew by only 0.3% in the second quarter (+ 0.2% in the first quarter). In a situation of shrinking domestic demand, British companies will have to increase capital investment.

The decline in consumer spending and the slowdown in the UK economy, which are taking place against the background of Brexit, will help the Bank of England continue to adhere to extra soft monetary policy. As you know, last summer the Bank of England lowered the interest rate to a record level of 0.25%, the lowest for the last 300 years.

The slowdown in the UK economy, the protracted Brexit talks and the unclear prospects for the monetary policy of the UK central bank continue to have a negative impact on the pound quotes. It is likely that the pound will remain under pressure at the beginning of this week before the debate in parliament on Thursday.

On Friday (11:30 GMT + 3), the National Statistical Office of Great Britain will publish July data on industrial production and manufacturing in the manufacturing industry, which will allow us to assess the state of the British economy at the beginning of the third quarter. It is expected that the data will come with almost zero growth, which will also negatively affect the quotes of the pound.

Today, most of the US financial markets are closed due to the celebration of Labor Day. The low activity of traders and low trading volumes in the foreign exchange market are expected. The growth of volatility in the foreign exchange market will begin tomorrow, when during the Asian session (02:01 GMT + 3) the British Retail Consortium (BRC) will publish a report on retail sales for August, and at 07:30 (GMT + 3) the RBA will publish a decision on interest rate in Australia.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Despite continued pressure on the pound, the pair GBP / USD remains positive, trading above support levels 1.2935 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart), 1.2860 (EMA200 on the daily chart) in the uplink on the daily chart.

Breakdown of the local resistance level 1.2980 will create the prerequisites for the recovery of the mid-term upward correction trend. The closest target in this case will be the resistance level 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the decline in the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). Levels of 1.3300 (the upper limit of the channel on the weekly chart), 1.3460 (July and September highs) will be the next growth target.

A fall below support level 1.2860 will strengthen the risk of GBP / USD returning to a downtrend.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.

Support levels: 1.2935, 1.2912, 1.2860, 1.2800

Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2990. Take-Profit 1.2860, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365

Buy Stop 1.2990. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

NZD/USD: rebound from the support level of 0.7165

05/09/2017

Current dynamics

After yesterday, marked by sluggish dynamics and low volumes, today we see an increase in volatility and the resumption of a decline in the US dollar.

The continuing tension in the Asia-Pacific region continues to stimulate purchases of assets-shelters, such as gold, yen, and franc.

There is also an increase in the prices of oil and other commodities, along with which the quotations of commodity currencies are growing.

The New Zealand dollar is also growing today against the US dollar, despite a number of fundamental factors. This is the continuing commitment of the RBNZ to conducting soft monetary policy, the uncertainty surrounding the elections in New Zealand scheduled for September 23, geopolitical tensions in the region due to the continuing provocations by North Korea against the US and Japan.

For a stable recovery in the New Zealand economy and rising inflation, "a lower New Zealand dollar rate is needed", the RBNZ said recently.

We are waiting for today data from the auction of dairy products, the publication of which is scheduled for the period after 14:00 (GMT). The price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out last time with a value of -0.4%. If the prices for milk powder decrease again, it will have a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Today, NZD / USD is trading in the range between support levels of 0.7165 (EMA200), 0.7190 (EMA144 on the daily chart). A breakthrough in one direction or another may determine the direction of further medium-term movement of the NZD / USD pair.

The fastening above the levels of 0.7240 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the minimums of December 2016), 0.7270 (EMA200 on 4-hour, weekly charts) will confirm the return of the upward dynamics.

In the alternative scenario and in case of a breakdown of the level 0.7165, a further decline to the support levels 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range located between the levels of 0.7550 and 0.6860) is possible. A break at the level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the downward trend.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly charts recommend short positions.

Support level: 0.7165

Resistance levels: 0.7190, 0.7240, 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7320, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7170. Stop-Loss 0.7210. Take-Profit 0.7160, 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6860

Buy Stop 0.7210. Stop-Loss 0.7170. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7320, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

DJIA: US stock markets remain under pressure

06/09/2017

Current dynamics

Received yesterday, during the US trading session, weak macro data on the US contributed to a sharp intraday decline in major US stock indexes.

The US Department of Commerce on Tuesday reported that production orders in July fell 3.3% compared to June, while orders for durable goods fell by 6.8% compared to the previous month.

The aggravation of geopolitical tension after North Korea's nuclear tests on Sunday, as well as the new hurricane "Irma" that is approaching Florida, also have a negative impact on US stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell by 234 points yesterday, the S & P500 - by 18 points, Nasdaq Composite fell by 59 points.

Shares of financial companies became outsiders in the S & P500. So, JP Morgan shares lost 2.4% yesterday, Bank of America - 3.2%. Shares of technological company United Technologies in the structure of DJIA on Tuesday fell by 5.7%.

The ICE dollar index closed Tuesday at around 92.25, the lowest level since August 29.

Today, US stock markets remain under pressure. Again, the increased demand for assets-seekers - yen, franc, gold. Gold futures on COMEX are traded with an increase of 0.3%, at 1340 dollars per troy ounce, reaching an annual maximum.

Recently, trades are taking place with sharp fluctuations. Investors are increasingly worried about how long the bull market will last. While the market outlook is generally positive, there are many risk factors. This is the preservation, and even growth, of the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the domestic political problems in the US and the White House, the weak macro data coming from the US. In the United States, Hurricane Harvey has not yet recovered from Hurricane Hurricane as he races on Florida, another powerful hurricane, Irma, is approaching.

Thus, the propensity of investors to buy risky assets noticeably decreases, which is reflected in the decline in major US stock indexes.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Today, the DJIA index is trading in a range between two important levels, the breakthrough of which can determine the direction of the further movement of DJIA in the short term. In case of breakdown of the support level 21720.0 (EMA50 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), one can consider the possibility of opening medium-term short positions.

The target of the decrease may be support levels 20810.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 20630.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level 0% is near the mark 22177.0).

Breakdown of key support levels 20750.0, 20630.0 significantly strengthens the risks of completion of the long-term bullish trend of DJIA.

At the same time, DJIA maintains positive long-term dynamics, trading in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which passes through the mark of 22350.0. Here, the upper border of the channel passes on the weekly chart. In case of the breakdown of the nearest strong short-term resistance level of 21810.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the growth of DJIA will resume, and the targets will be the levels of 22060.0, 2177.0 (highs of the year and August), 22350.0.

Support levels: 21720.0, 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20810.0, 20630.0

Resistance levels: 21810.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22350.0


Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 21850.0. Stop-Loss 21690.0. Take-Profit 22060.0, 22177.0, 22350.0

Sell Stop 21690.0. Stop-Loss 21850.0. Take-Profit 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20810.0, 20630.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: focus on ECB decisions

07/09/2017

Current dynamics

According to the data published on Thursday, the growth of the Eurozone economy in the second quarter (in annual terms) was 2.3% (the forecast was + 2.2%). The data show that the economy of the Eurozone grew faster than in early 2017.

In the 1st quarter, according to GDP growth, the Eurozone outperformed the US, and in the second quarter, growth accelerated.

This data came out on the eve of the publication of the ECB's decision on the interest rate (at 11:45 GMT). It is expected that the rates will remain at the same level. A little later (12:30 GMT) the ECB press conference will begin.

It is likely that following the meeting of the Governing Council, the president of the central bank, Mario Draghi, will signal that the bank will begin to reduce the program for the purchase of assets, the amount of which is 2.3 trillion euros.

Prospects for the growth of the Eurozone economy are becoming increasingly positive. Nevertheless, the inflation rate remains well below the target level set by the central bank.

ECB executives decide what to do with the asset purchase program in conditions of low inflation and the limited availability of available for purchase assets on the stock market. The ECB may postpone a decision on this issue.

Nevertheless, the euro is growing on expectations of the ECB's statement about the curtailment of the incentive program. The euro is still trading below the five-year average. At the same time, there are positive changes in the Eurozone economy.

Investors' opinions as to whether the ECB will today indicate the possibility of curtailing the QE program were divided approximately 50/50.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

The pair EUR / USD continues to grow in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which runs near the 1.2100 mark.

In the period from 11:45 to 13:00 (GMT), a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market. The reaction of the market to Mario Draghi's speech can be unpredictable. And so far it is unclear what Mario Draghi will say, but he can develop the markets.

The lower boundary of the channel passes through the support level 1.1780 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900).

If Mario Draghi declares the start and the deadline for the curtailment of the QE program, the euro will become sharply stronger on the foreign exchange market. In this case, the targets for the EUR / USD growth will be the levels of 1.2050 (July 2012 low), 1.2100.00, 1.2180 (Fibonacci level of 50% corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline from 1.3900), 1.2370 (EMA200 on the monthly chart).

If the ECB postpones the solution of the issue or extends the terms of QE, the euro will fall under pressure.

The breakdown of the support level 1.1780 will create prerequisites for a deeper decline in EUR / USD and the opening of short positions. So far, long positions on EUR / USD are relevant.

Support levels: 1.1900, 1.1880, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1720, 1.1670, 1.1620

Resistance levels: 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2180


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1930. Stop-Loss 1.2010. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1880, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1720, 1.1670, 1.1620

Buy Stop. Stop-Loss 1.1930. Take-Profit 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2370

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

USD/JPY: the dollar continues to fall

08/09/2017

Current dynamics

The dollar continues to decline. Concerns about geopolitical risks and natural disasters in the US, weak economic data and doubts about the prospects for raising the Federal Reserve's interest rates helped the dollar to fall to its lowest level for more than two and a half years.

The ICE dollar index today decreased by 0.5%, reaching a minimum of 33 months.

The fall in the USD / JPY began in July, as expectations for new stimulus measures in the US weakened, including lower taxes and increased spending on infrastructure. Recently, increased geopolitical concerns about the testing of weapons in North Korea, forced investors to buy more reliable currencies such as gold, franc, yen. This Saturday in North Korea will be the anniversary of the founding of the state. A year ago, on that day, the military tested nuclear weapons.

History can repeat itself. But this time it could be like the next launch of the missile towards Japan, as well as a test explosion of nuclear weapons in the DPRK.

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump again cautioned against North Korea, saying that "North Korea behaves badly and needs to be stopped". "The military actions against North Korea - this is one of the options for the development of events", according to Trump. Military confrontation "definitely can happen".

The dollar today fell by 0.7% against the yen and by 0.6% against the Swiss franc. Gold prices rose by 0.7% to 1,357.00 dollars per ounce.

Investors are also worried that the hurricanes "Harvey" and "Irma" may negatively affect the economic performance of the United States in the short term. This may also have a negative impact on expectations of an increase in FRS interest rates. The increase in interest rates, as a rule, provides support to the currency. However, a number of Fed officials have expressed doubts about the need for such a step on the part of the Fed on the background of low inflation in the US.

The decline in the dollar is also due to a decrease in the yield of US government bonds. Today, the yield of 10-year US government bonds continued to decline and, according to Tradeweb, fell to 2,027% from the level of 2,061%, recorded on Thursday.

Against the backdrop of a large-scale decline in the dollar and growth in demand for safe haven assets, the US dollar / Japanese yen has reached a new 10-month low, breaking through the 108.00 level.

It is likely that today, at the end of the trading week, many investors will want to fix profit in short positions on the dollar, which will cause its corrective growth. Nevertheless, the negative attitude to the dollar persists. Probably further decline in the dollar in the short term, including in the pair USD / JPY.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Technical analysis

Since July, the active decline of the pair USD / JPY has started, which broke through the key support levels of 110.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 110.10 (Fibonacci level 38.2% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and 99.90 level), 108.80 (EMA200, EMA144 on the weekly chart).

A powerful negative impulse, based on a large-scale weakening of the dollar, pushes the pair USD / JPY towards support levels of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%), 105.00 (EMA200, EMA144 on the monthly chart).

Apparently, only near the level of 105.00 it is possible to stop the fall of the USD / JPY.

An alternative scenario involves the return of the USD / JPY in the zone above the level of 108.80 and the resumption of growth with targets at levels 110.10, 110.90.

Nevertheless, the fundamental factor speaks in favor of the further fall of the USD / JPY.

Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastics) on 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly charts also give signals for sales.

Support levels: 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

Resistance levels: 108.10, 108.80, 110.10, 110.90, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00


Trading recommendations

Buy Stop. Stop Loss 107.40. Take-Profit 108.80, 110.10, 110.90

Sell in the market. Stop Loss. Take-Profit 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com