Today's trade for Friday 8th November

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Yesterday saw an unexpected rate cut from the ECB, and despite talk of the cut most analysts had predicted that it wouldn’t happen until 2014. The pair ofcourse plummeted on the news, but then saw a curious retracement of over half the move as the price rallied. S&P also cut the French rating to AA from AA+, and Greece is undergoing pressure to stage a no confidence vote in its own government. All of these things should put pressure on the Euro today, coupled with the fact that it is Friday. Today is a huge day for figures as we have NFP being released in the US, so the wisest move is to use extreme caution when trading any set ups.

Look for selling opportunities on the EUR/USD
 
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shogunfx

Sergeant
Messages
260
Remember that last month was gov default and is possible to affect USD. See also what a strong support is at 1.34 level. USDJPY fall like a rock yesterday. So I'm not so convinced that EURUSD will fall.
 

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Remember that last month was gov default and is possible to affect USD. See also what a strong support is at 1.34 level. USDJPY fall like a rock yesterday. So I'm not so convinced that EURUSD will fall.
Hey Shogun,

Thanks for your post :)

Which Government Default? ... The US?

Yeah it is a risky trade, especially with the possibility of a weak NFP later, but the I'm hoping that sellers will be inclined to get back in if it pops up to decent resistance.
It all really depends on how the data looks!

J
 
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tim61468

Private, 1st Class
Messages
69
Had a feeling that the Non-Farm Employment Change would come out better than expected and went short on the EUR/USD pair . Big Daddy here wound up 65 pips ahead for the day... Great call again Jarratt!
 

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Had a feeling that the Non-Farm Employment Change would come out better than expected and went short on the EUR/USD pair . Big Daddy here wound up 65 pips ahead for the day... Great call again Jarratt!
Hey Tim,

Me too .... That's why I decided to go with the short today :)

Basically the data has disappointed the past few times and then everyone was in a negative mode after the shut down and the expectations were just ridiculously low! (Like 120k)
I just didn't believe that it would be so low ... I wasn't expecting over 200k but certainly 150 - 180k maybe.

Glad you managed to take some from it :)

J
 
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Alex Henry

Recruit
Messages
2
Remember that last month was gov default and is possible to affect USD. See also what a strong support is at 1.34 level. USDJPY fall like a rock yesterday. So I'm not so convinced that EURUSD will fall.
Hi Jarratt, Your last two trades were long GBP/USD and long NZD/USD. Should I get out of those trades now?
 

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Hi Jarratt, Your last two trades were long GBP/USD and long NZD/USD. Should I get out of those trades now?

Hi Alex,

The GBP/USD has a stop loss in place so you can just use that as a guide for exiting that one.

The NZD/USD is an interesting pair because it is around 1.3% down from when I posted the trade obviously, however the fundamentals longer term are with it to the long side.
There is some data next week that could move the pair further but I personally am holding my position for now.

This does not mean that you should do the same, because I am managing my trades in real time throughout the week as the fundamentals and sentiment is changing etc...

If I feel that it is not going to ever come back up to the highs I will happily cut my loss. So It is a little harder for me to give an ongoing 'call' on this pair because even if it drops I still may have conviction in the trade (It's just how I like to do it) So when I do get something that has a time limit or is simple to place a stop on I will place it on here complete with stops and targets etc :) .... As I did with the GBP trade last week.

The goal of the daily trades is to highlight which pairs to be trading and the overall direction, so that you can use your own strategy to give you entries, stops and TP's etc...

Hope this helps, but if you need anything else just let me know!

J
 
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