Today’s Trade – Looking to sell EUR/AUD

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Hey Everyone,

Today I’m looking for selling opportunities on EUR/AUD with EUR rallying against the AUD for no apparent reason placing EUR/AUD at a very attractive selling price.
I’ll be looking to get in this position EUR/AUD around 1.4100 to 1.4095 with a stop loss around the 1.4140 to 1.4150 and a profit target of 1.3990 to 1.3975.

Overall Bias on this trade

I am taking this trade as fundamentally we know that the EUR is going to continue being sold off on account of the ECB introducing an ABS program and cutting rates, therefore we want to take advantage of these marginal rallies’s especially against stronger currencies.

This trade is however a little bit speculative simply because there is no clear reason for AUD weakness at this time, but the main driver of the trade is the rush of Euro strength which I expect the market to sell into especially against a stronger currency like the AUD.

Essentially I believe on EUR/AUD the AUD is oversold at present with the EUR being slightly overbought, on account of there being little news in the ether about AUD recent weakness I would stress to use stop losses and pay close attention to the news, as there is the potential for EUR to continue on its gains before its unavoidable fall.

P.S - If you want to learn more about how I trade, check out this link below

http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex...e-trading-course-forex-pro-jarratt-davis.html
 
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shogunfx

Sergeant
Messages
260
AUD is in a down trend. Just looking at all AUD crosses on MN, and W1 tf.
EURAUD is going up because AUD is weak. It's so because of worse business
conditions and Consumer Confidence data posted this week.
Today it's time for correction and tonight after RBNZ Interest Rate Decision possible to rally again.
We'll see. :)

So this week EURAUD is still going up in my opinion.
 

manu3000

Private
Messages
12
The question is, though AUD, which is weak at the moment, is weaker or EUR is weaker.. I still think EUR is and this rally in the last two days is kind of interesting and gives us opportunities to sell..

Jarratt, Thank you for the insight and what is your take on EURCAD?

Regards,

Shiva
 

Peter Neymovic

Private, 1st Class
Messages
82
Jarratt, thank you for your always qualitative information. I was thinking about to sell it but don't you think its' too risky for a not very experienced trader?
 

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
The question is, though AUD, which is weak at the moment, is weaker or EUR is weaker.. I still think EUR is and this rally in the last two days is kind of interesting and gives us opportunities to sell..

Jarratt, Thank you for the insight and what is your take on EURCAD?

Regards,

Shiva
Hi Manu,

Basically any rallies on the EUR are only temporary, with the slashing of rates and introduction of an ABS program (fundamental) the EUR is only destined to head in one direction, that's down. So You're absolutely right any little rallies provide attractive opportunities to get in and start selling it. The AUD is experiencing a foray of weak data and with Gov Stevens talking down the currency this has given the AUD weak (sentiment) but inflation is at 2.9% on account of this they're going to have to consider action soon, this means a potential rate hike so (fundamentally) it's in a relatively strong position.

If I had to trade EUR I wouldn't pit it against the CAD as both aren't strong currencies, try to keep the formula of weak currency against a strong currency, you can still get you some pips out of EURCAD depending on news and data coming out relating to the pair, but it's needlessly difficult to trade and overly complicated, given that at the moment neither are in a strong position. Check this link out for an overview of each currency http://www.jarrattdavis.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Currency-Watchlist1.pdf.

Hope that helps :)
 
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Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Jarratt, thank you for your always qualitative information. I was thinking about to sell it but don't you think its' too risky for a not very experienced trader?
Hi Peter,

Without sounding mystic any trade can be too risking without SL's in place and too much leverage, there's no such thing as a safe pair, but in terms of higher probability of going in your favour I would say GBPUSD is pretty much only going to go in one direction up until the 18/9/2014, but if you really want to minimise the risk you may want to get out before that (say 15/9 -16/9) as what may happen in the days leading up to the vote such as leaked opinions polls etc is anybodies guess.
 
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yetiman

Private
Messages
19
Hi Jarrat,
thanks for your call and indepth reasons patience paid off for me on this trade as I sometimes rush my entries. Got in at 1.4158 and made some pips. With your guidance the fundamentalls and sediment are making more sense now, much appreciated. But I still have a way to go.
cheers Brian
 

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Hi Peter,

Without sounding mystic any trade can be too risking without SL's in place and too much leverage, there's no such thing as a safe pair, but in terms of higher probability of going in your favour I would say GBPUSD is pretty much only going to go in one direction up until the 18/9/2014, but if you really want to minimise the risk you may want to get out before that (say 15/9 -16/9) as what may happen in the days leading up to the vote such as leaked opinions polls etc is anybodies guess.
Hi Peter,

Another poll has just come out from the UK stating that the majority opinion is now in favour of a No vote, adding more volatility to this pair. Just be careful when placing a position on this pair and keep a close eye on the news.
 
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