Today's Trade: Thursday 24 October

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
After better than expected Chinese data overnight, we can look for a recovery on the AUD and NZD currencies during the upcoming sessions. Look for buying opportunities on the AUD/USD, particularly during today's session, as it pulls back to key areas of support.
 
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pangga23

Recruit
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1
e-book

Do you have an e-book version of your book? Thanks.
After better than expected Chinese data overnight, we can look for a recovery on the AUD and NZD currencies during the upcoming sessions. Look for buying opportunities on the AUD/USD, particularly during today's session, as it pulls back to key areas of support.
 
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Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Have you read this?

China central bank fuels fears of inflation clampdown | Reuters

More or less says china is pulling the plug on liquidity which will hamper Aus strength.

Aus looks like a sell.

Hi Forexer101,

Good spot on this

I saw this article earlier but decided that the market would likely be driven by fundamentals on this position. Right now we have an AUD that seems to have had the threat of a rate cut removed and a more hawkish tone from the RBA. Chinese data is also looking very good again which signals growth (Which ofcourse would impact AUD positively)

The money market issue is obviously a concern but I feel that it won't change the tone completely because there are more reasons to be buying than this single reason to sell. Plus I was actually reading another article yesterday that was saying for all the panic, the actual rates didn't get particularly high, relative to recent spikes. I have copied the actual quote from Ransquawk below:

"Yet again, the move higher in money market rates in China, which saw the seven-day repo jump to 4.5%, which is the highest level since national holidays, resulted in Chinese stocks under performing its regional peers. However despite the latest up tick in money market rates, there is little evidence to suggest that the PBOC will announce measures to boost liquidity at this stage with analysts at Deutsche Bank noting that recent moves are not outside the historical range of volatility."

Basically, If this was the case then it is possible that more assets would be repatriated to China as Chinese banks look to shore up their assets and therefore could be negative for AUD ... So if that is not the expectation we can safely expect the bullish moves to continue.


Obviously this is all just subjective analysis and the pair could do anything, but all I'm trying to do is share the reasons why I am favouring one thing over another :)

Hope this helps!

J
 
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WilsonK

Recruit
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3
After better than expected Chinese data overnight, we can look for a recovery on the AUD and NZD currencies during the upcoming sessions. Look for buying opportunities on the AUD/USD, particularly during today's session, as it pulls back to key areas of support.
Hi Jarratt,

1stly, good call on the CAD/JPY trade.

2ndly, will appreciate if you can post the support/resistance as mentioned in your quote, so that can see how where you have identified as support/resistant on the pairs. Thanks
 
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Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Hi Jarratt,

1stly, good call on the CAD/JPY trade.

2ndly, will appreciate if you can post the support/resistance as mentioned in your quote, so that can see how where you have identified as support/resistant on the pairs. Thanks
Hi Wilson,

Thanks for the post :)

Did you manage to catch some of the CAD/JPY trade?

I will try and post some levels to compliment the analysis in future. A really simple tip is to trade around '00' levels ... So on today's Aussie position the 0.9600 level would have been a good place to contemplate a long position if you decided to trade along with it during today's session.

The bearish move kind of overshadowed the underlying fundamentals so far today, but as a general guide that is quite useful :)

Hope it helps!

J
 
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