U.S. Crude Oil

GazFx

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U.S. Crude Oil: In this weeks iTrade Weekly report I said: "The daily and H1 trend is down, but H4 remains up at close of trade this week. But H4 looks set to trigger a sell signal, and when it does, all three time frames will be confluent and pointing downwards."

The H4 chart did, indeed, trigger a sell signal during the trading week, and I moved on this early. Price is currently nearing support, and may bounce around a little this week, but a break below support could see oil prices fall to around $57.00 a barrel.

Well, that was Friday. Today is Monday, and a one hour Exit Alert is forming.

The daily and 4 hour trend remains firmly down, but the 1 hour is close to switching sides from down, to up. Price came close to support at 61.638, got scared and ran away, but it is just a "bump" on the 4 hour chart. The downtrend remains established for the moment, and current supply-demand fundamentals support further price softening. OPEC is increasing supply by 400,000 bbl per day, with the goal of reaching previous production cut output within a few months. And just when the Covid economic recovery was gathering moment, hello Delta variant!

It is hard to believe that just a week or so ago, I was extremely bullish on oil. Today I am bearish.

Crude oil stock levels are replenishing, and oil keeps flowing, but demand tappers off. Too much oil supply.

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CRUDEOILH4_Downtrend230821.jpg
 
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