U.S. Election Result Seen Positive to Risk Assets

[fullertonmarkets]

Stocks were set to continue their big post-election rally as futures rose in overnight trading on Sunday. The gains came as Democrat Joe Biden defeated incumbent Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential race to become president elect, according to NBC projections.

Wall Street had rallied in the past week in anticipation for such a gridlocked government and was set to build on that rally as it gained clarity in the presidential race. All three major averages just notched their best weekly performance since April. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped 7.3% and 9%, respectively, last week, while the Dow rose 6.9%. The S&P 500 also posted its biggest election week gain since 1932.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 387 points this morning, implying an opening gain of about 370 points on Monday. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also both traded in positive territory.

Tech was the biggest winner last week among the 11 S&P 500 sectors, surging 9.7%. Investors piled into the high-growth group as the prospect of higher taxes and tighter regulations under a Democratic sweep decreased.

Stock futures gained even as Trump is refusing to concede the election, vowing that as soon as Monday his team will start prosecuting their case in court to ensure election laws are fully upheld.

The former vice president won after his projected victory in Pennsylvania as well as Nevada. The call came four days after Election Day and amid close counts in several battleground states.

Wall Street hoped the call would reduce the odds of a drawn-out election fight, even as Trump refused to concede. Many traders had put on bets for market volatility in November and were unwinding those positions, helping fuel a rally.

In the meantime, the chances of a “blue wave” that sweeps Democrats into the majority of both the Senate and the House have waned, meaning drastic policy changes such as tax hikes are less likely.

A Biden presidency with a Republican Senate would be unlikely to see any increase in taxes, which was arguably the biggest fear investors had about a Biden presidency, and a Biden presidency could mean a return to a more traditional, predictable approach to trade policy, which would likely result in less volatile markets.

Democrats are projected to keep their House majority, although Wall Street was watching closely as Senate control is still in limbo. Both of Georgia’s Senate races are likely going to runoffs slated for early January.

The president and his surrogates have launched lawsuits in multiple key states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, and have signalled that they plan to press for recounts in some close races.

Biden is expected today to announce the members of his coronavirus task force, who will be charged with crafting a plan to curb the spread of the coronavirus as it reaches record-high levels.

As the election focus starts to fade, investors will begin paying more attention to Covid as cases continue to explode and Europe institutes a series of mitigation measures. Vaccine anticipation has helped protect stocks from the ugly virus headlines.