UK 2nd Estimate GDP | Current Sentiment

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
We are not looking to make any trades today unless there is a major surprise in UK 2nd Estimate GDP. Watch the weekly risk events overview here and read my analysis of current market sentiment below in order to prepare for this release.

The only noteworthy data point over the past twenty-four hours was inflation data from Japan. The focus for the BOJ is CPI excluding food & energy (core-core). Nationwide was at 0.70% for October y/y, down from a prior of 0.90%. Tokyo-area was at 0.60% for November, up from a prior of 0.40%. The move higher in Tokyo-area core-core is positive for the BOJ's narrative that underlying inflation is trending higher. The BOJ have also begun releasing their own measure of core-core CPI which the central bank calculates itself. This figure, which also excludes food and energy, is released about five hours after the statistics bureau's official release. The figure printed at 1.20% for October. The unemployment rate also dropped to 3.1% from 3.4% - the lowest of any major economy.

Asian equities fell during the session with the Shanghai down 5%. This has prompted yen strength with USDJPY down 30 pips from session highs.

We expect volumes to be thin again today, following on from Thanksgiving in the US and heading into the weekend.

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