UK data on 19 Jan

[auhiem]

Hi everyone,
As all of you know, the UK economic news on 19 Jan was a positive one and this boost GBP to rise. It is still appreciating today.

Anyone can offer advise on my query:-
1) Will the GBP continue to rise indefinitely until a negative news come out next time? If not, when/what will change its direction?
2) Will there be any chance that GBP will drop back to its low?

Thank you.

 

[cowmadagan]

Ok, first, no one here has a crystal ball, so keep that in the back of your mind.

I did see one economist point out that at some point the US deficit will catch up with them, which would be USD negative, but in which pair is the problem. Japan is targeting a 95 yen dollar, so it's not them. The Aussies...are really hard to say, just because they're too dependent on China. Canada, no way, as they're too tied to the US. Euro has Greece to contend with. So, this dude said that GBP might be the winner by default. That said, my answers.

1) I think it's best to expect that the GBP will have an on day followed by an off day, repeated, and I think that's the way to trade it for now.
2) Definitely.

But all that said, I'm not sure if you're asking what you mean...if you're saying that you have a short position that you've been sitting on since 1.59, I'd dump it. Also, I think today we've seen what will change its direction. Just today I've started to go long GBP vs AUD, as I think it'll be more resilient than the AUD.

 

[Ricex]

Hi,
sterling is actually trading (as I type) some 80 odd pips lower than todays open price so not looking great at the moment, but looking at the longer TF's it has had quite a good run since the beginning of the year. As cowmadagan was saying there are always two sides to look at when trading forex currency pairs, cable is one and the other choices are generally usd, jpy or aud. You want to match up weak and strong to improve your chances.
Had cable been up against a weaker $ at the moment the good news started to arrive then it may have shot to the moon, but it came at a time when the dollar grabbed some steroids and that has rather washed out the party.

Nothing rises or falls indefinately, except maybe a zimbabwe dollar. Interest rate changes tend to have high impact on currencies, so watch out for those. If I knew when it's going to change I'd be very rich.

 

[cowmadagan]

I'm expecting a sterling smacked bottom tomorrow. Low of 1.615

 

[Ricex]

I won't trade cable until the price is below the monthly pivot at around 6232. I'm not a great pivot follower but in this case I would like that confirmation.

 

[cowmadagan]

Yeah, I'm always cautious about playing with my cable too. Never can be sure.


To Mod: Sorry....

 

[cowmadagan]

*clears throat*