Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Hey folks:
It's Henry Liu here with this week's upcoming news releases... and as usual, I'll be sending you more detailed analysis for each and every one of the releases listed below just a day prior to their schedules. This week is GBP week, because we'll be trading MPC Minutes, CPI, and Retail Sales... We may also get some pre-news trading opportunities... Exciting times!
1. Tue August 17, 2010 4:30am EDT - UK CPI y/y
Historical Chart & Data
2. Wed August 18, 2010 4:30am EDT - UK MPC Meeting Minutes
3. Thu August 19, 2010 4:30am EDT - UK Retail Sales
Historical Chart & Data
4. Fri August 20, 2010 7:00am EDT - CA Core CPI
Historical Chart & Data
...and some untradable releases...
Like stated before, this week is GBP week, we'll have to focus on Sterling as that's the currency most traders will be looking at.
Following the tradition, let's look at once again how the market ended last week & previous to last week.
The week of (8/2~6):
EUR gained 1.5% against USD
GBP gained 2.0% against USD
CAD remained unchanged
AUD gained 1.5% against USD
NZD gained 1.0% against USD
JPY gained 1.0% against USD
CHF remained unchanged
...and last week (8/9~13)
EUR lost 4.0% against USD
GBP lost 2.5% against USD
CAD lost 1.5% against USD
AUD lost 3.0% against USD
NZD lost 3.5% against USD
JPY lost 1.0% against USD
CHF lost 1.5% against USD
...clearly anyone who traded last week would agree that market trend has changed from dumping USD to buying USD, mostly due to risk aversion sentiment as general market seeks the safety of US Treasuries.
As I've said time and again, when we have a strong week, such as the one we saw last week, we are most likely to see some consolidation before the market moves further. I do believe that the short-term trend has changed towards pro-USD, but we may see some rebounding and consolidation... therefore, I believe we could get better positioning if we just remain a bit patient.
I'd still be looking to go LONG on USD/JPY and USD/CAD. I'd be looking at support levels to BUY these pairs if given the chance...
As far as EUR/USD is concerned. I'm eyeing the 1.2900~1.3000 area for possible SELL. Even though EUR/USD is at 1.2750 level at the time of this post, we could get a rally back above those levels on a positive news from Europe, possibly the German Zew Economic Sentiment on Tuesday. The idea is to wait for the release and look for the best area to sell. A positive ZEW release is NOT enough to change the trend on EUR. It may provide temporary support, but eventually EUR/USD will head towards the 1.2000.
As far as GBP is concerned, I'll leave that for the daily analysis.
Thanks,
It's Henry Liu here with this week's upcoming news releases... and as usual, I'll be sending you more detailed analysis for each and every one of the releases listed below just a day prior to their schedules. This week is GBP week, because we'll be trading MPC Minutes, CPI, and Retail Sales... We may also get some pre-news trading opportunities... Exciting times!
1. Tue August 17, 2010 4:30am EDT - UK CPI y/y
Historical Chart & Data
2. Wed August 18, 2010 4:30am EDT - UK MPC Meeting Minutes
3. Thu August 19, 2010 4:30am EDT - UK Retail Sales
Historical Chart & Data
4. Fri August 20, 2010 7:00am EDT - CA Core CPI
Historical Chart & Data
...and some untradable releases...
- Mon August 16, 2010 9:00am EDT - US TIC Long-Term Purchases: Market just ignores this release.
- Tue August 17, 2010 5:00am EDT - EU German Zew Sentiment: Generally fundamental indicators do very little for the EUR.
- Tue August 17, 2010 8:30am EDT - U.S. Building Permits & PPI: Both releases are untradable because housing market has not changed much and inflation is not a primary concern for the Feds.
- Thu August 19, 2010 8:30am EDT - US Unemployment Claims: This is a weekly report, market impact is minimum.
- Thu August 19, 2010 10:00am EDT - US Philly Fed. Index: Only in extreme surprise releases we are likely t0 see market move. This is normally not tradable.
Like stated before, this week is GBP week, we'll have to focus on Sterling as that's the currency most traders will be looking at.
Following the tradition, let's look at once again how the market ended last week & previous to last week.
The week of (8/2~6):
EUR gained 1.5% against USD
GBP gained 2.0% against USD
CAD remained unchanged
AUD gained 1.5% against USD
NZD gained 1.0% against USD
JPY gained 1.0% against USD
CHF remained unchanged
...and last week (8/9~13)
EUR lost 4.0% against USD
GBP lost 2.5% against USD
CAD lost 1.5% against USD
AUD lost 3.0% against USD
NZD lost 3.5% against USD
JPY lost 1.0% against USD
CHF lost 1.5% against USD
...clearly anyone who traded last week would agree that market trend has changed from dumping USD to buying USD, mostly due to risk aversion sentiment as general market seeks the safety of US Treasuries.
As I've said time and again, when we have a strong week, such as the one we saw last week, we are most likely to see some consolidation before the market moves further. I do believe that the short-term trend has changed towards pro-USD, but we may see some rebounding and consolidation... therefore, I believe we could get better positioning if we just remain a bit patient.
I'd still be looking to go LONG on USD/JPY and USD/CAD. I'd be looking at support levels to BUY these pairs if given the chance...
As far as EUR/USD is concerned. I'm eyeing the 1.2900~1.3000 area for possible SELL. Even though EUR/USD is at 1.2750 level at the time of this post, we could get a rally back above those levels on a positive news from Europe, possibly the German Zew Economic Sentiment on Tuesday. The idea is to wait for the release and look for the best area to sell. A positive ZEW release is NOT enough to change the trend on EUR. It may provide temporary support, but eventually EUR/USD will head towards the 1.2000.
As far as GBP is concerned, I'll leave that for the daily analysis.
Thanks,
Last edited by a moderator: