Upcoming Signals Overview (August 2~6, 2010)

Henry Liu

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
473
Hey folks:

Henry Liu here again for this week's upcoming news releases and as usual, I'll be sending you more detailed analysis for each and every one of the high impact tradable releases listed below:

1. Mon August 2, 2010 4:30am EST - UK Manufacturing PMI:
Historical Charts And Data for UK Manufacturing PMI

2. Mon August 2, 2010 10:00am EST - US ISM Manufacturing PMI:
Historical Charts And Data for US ISM Manufacturing PMI

3. Mon August 2, 2010 9:30pm EST - AU Retail Sales:
Historical Charts And Data For AU Retail Sales

4. Tue August 3, 2010 12:30am EST - RBA Interest Rate:
Historical Charts And Data For RBA Interest Rate

5. Wed August 4, 2010 4:30am EST - UK Services PMI
Historical Charts And Data For UK Services PMI

6. Wed August 4, 2010 8:15am EST - US ADP NFP Employment:
Historical Chart And Data For US ADP NFP Employment

7. Thu August 5, 2010 7:00am EST - UK BOE Interest Rate:
Historicial Chart And Data For UK BOE Interest Rate

8. Thu August 5, 2010 7:45am EST - EU ECB Interest Rate:
Historical Chart And Data For EU ECB Interest Rate

9. Fri August 6, 2010 7:00am EST - CA Employment Change
Historical Chart And Data For CA Employment Change

10. Fri August 6, 2010 8:30am EST - US NFP Employment Change
Historical Chart And Data For US NFP Employment Change

And of course as usual, there are some untradable news releases:

  1. Mon August 2, 2010 3:15am - CH Retail Sales - Usually CH is not affected by its fundamental outlook, but by the market's risk sentiment. Best to skip it than trying to force a trade....
  2. Tue August 3, 2010 10:00am - US Pending Home Sales - Most of the time market just ignores this release, and especially so when home sales are expected to be under pressure, so there is no real surprise factor.
  3. Tue August 3, 2010 9:30pm - AU Trade Balance - Not tradable by historical records, rather not waste time on this release.
  4. Wed August 4, 2010 10:00am - US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - Track records of this release are showing a general muted reaction, therefore best to skip it.
  5. Wed August 4, 2010 6:45pm - NZ Employment Change - I usually don't trade this release as market usually fails to react. NZD is a risk and commodity currency. Best to trade this currency on risk sentiment than on fundamental outlook.
  6. Thu August 5, 2010 8:30am EST - EU Trichet Press Conference - I will try to write an analysis for this release, but I do not recommend anyone that's not experienced with Trichet's speech to trade it. Market could move violently and it's better to stay out.
  7. Fri August 6, 2010 4:30am EST - UK PPI & Manuf. Prod. - Not market moving news releases. Best to stay out and concentrate on the REAL mover at 8:30am.

Following the upcoming overview tradition, let's take a look at the week before last week and how the market traded last week:

EUR remained unchanged
GBP gained 1.0% against USD
CAD gained 2.0% against USD
AUD gained 3.0% against USD
NZD gained 2.0% against USD
JPY lost 1.0% against USD
CHF remained unchanged

...and last week (7-26~30, 2010)

EUR Gained 1.5% against USD
GBP gained 1.5% against USD
CAD gained 0.5% against USD
AUD gained 1.0% against USD
NZD remained unchanged against USD
JPY gained 1.0% against USD
CHF gained 1.0% against USD


With 2 weeks of consecutive broad losses on the USD, market is definitely looking at this week's NFP for direction. With major releases from USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, and AUD all scheduled for the week, the directional bias for the weekly trend is hard to determine. I would remain on the sidelines for the time being... However, here are my thoughts and take it using your own good judgment.

AUD should be bearish and my opinion is twofold. First, RBA is not expected to hike interest rate and the accompanied statement should be bearish as there are no expectations for rate hikes until 2011. Second, the general sentiment of risk aversion could take over this week's general market trend as the world is once again reminded in the bleak outlook of US Employment sector. My view is to SELL AUD/USD from the top and my target is still on the 0.8650 level. This is a longer-term outlook, but I believe for AUD/USD to remain at the current level it would take a tremendous amount of positive momentum... It is like going upstream and eventually it will have to come down...

JPY is likely to react to risk sentiment, but my long-term outlook is for a weaker JPY as technically this currency is screaming for a consolidation, but based on market sentiment, BOJ has brought up intervention possibilities in the event, that most traders believe, when USDJPY breaches the 85.00. I for one do not expect to see this level anytime soon, but I'd be buying USD/JPY at 85.00 if we get there. As USD/JPY is definitely forming a bottom around the current levels (87~85), a broader long-term view is for USD/JPY back above the 90s...

So folks, this is it. I'll be sending you more detail analyses for each and every one of the tradable releases this week before their schedule.

Thank you,


 
Last edited by a moderator:

MICHOKO

Recruit
Messages
2
Thanks a lot for all the job done and shared henry ,
it is very appreciated and very helpfull !:)
 

John Streckfuss

Recruit
Messages
1
Henry
Thanks for the information and insight - I'm new to FPA - I'm short the AUD per my technical indicators and nice to see you agree.
 

write2kc

Recruit
Messages
5
Henry I'm not actively trading FX right now ... but I am following your analysis.
I really appreciate all the research and analysis you are sharing with the forum.
Hopefully in a few months I'll be able to take advantage of some of it.
 

MidnightRun

Sergeant
Messages
186
AUD fundamentals

Henry,
Has the current rally which seems to be going up like non-stop influenced in any way your fundamental analysis and forecast that you made a few days ago last week (that Aussie is very likely to go down a couple hundreds pips) ?

Thank you
 

Rahmat Hartawan

Recruit
Messages
2
Thanks Henry for your overview. I appreciate that. I'll wait your detail analysis and I hope I can get some profits by its.
 

Henry Liu

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
473
Henry,
Has the current rally which seems to be going up like non-stop influenced in any way your fundamental analysis and forecast that you made a few days ago last week (that Aussie is very likely to go down a couple hundreds pips) ?

Thank you
I still believe that AUD is going to drop, but we do need a news catalyst for that to happen. I believe when it drops, it will drop hard.
 
Top