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Upcoming Signals Overview (August 9~13, 2010)

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Aug 8, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks:

    It's Henry Liu here with this week's upcoming news releases... and as usual, I'll be sending you more detailed analyses just a day prior to their scheduled releases... This week is going to be quiet compared to the hectic week we had, but because it is going to be quiet, market should react more to pre-news sentiments... So it may very well be a great week!

    1. Tue August 10, 2010 2:15pm EDT - US Federal Funds Rate
    Historical Chart & Data For US Federal Funds Rate

    2. Wed August 11, 2010 9:30pm EDT - AU Employment Change
    Historical Chart & Data For AU Employment Change

    3. Thu August 12, 2010 6:45pm EDT - NZ Retail Sales
    Historical Chart & Data For NZ Retail Sales

    4. Fri August 13, 2010 8:30am EDT - US Core CPI & Retail Sales
    Historical Chart & Data For US Core CPI
    Historical Chart & Data For USD Core Retail Sales

    ...and of course, some untradable releases.

    1. Mon August 9, 2010 - JP Interest Rate - Usually it's leaked early on, therefore not tradable.
    2. Tue August 10, 2010 8:15am EDT - CA Housing Start - Not enough impact to move the entire market
    3. Wed August 11, 2010 4:30am EDT - UK Claimant Count - Not tradable but I'm looking to possibly make it tradable next month...
    4. Wed August 11, 2010 5:30am EDT - UK Inflation Report - I'll send out a analysis on this release.
    5. Wed August 11, 2010 8:30am EDT - CA & US Trade Balance - Usually not tradable... market doesn't care about this number.
    6. Thu August 12, 2010 8:30am EDT - US Unemployment Claims - Only important during NFP week...
    7. Fri August 13, 2010 9:55am EDT - US Prelim U0M Consumer Sentiment - May move the market since itis the last high impact release for the week...

    Following the tradition, here is how the market ended the week before last week (7/26~30):

    EUR Gained 1.5% against USD
    GBP gained 1.5% against USD
    CAD gained 0.5% against USD
    AUD gained 1.0% against USD
    NZD remained unchanged against USD
    JPY gained 1.0% against USD
    CHF gained 1.0% against USD

    ...and last week (8/2~6):

    EUR gained 1.5% against USD
    GBP gained 2.0% against USD
    CAD remained unchanged
    AUD gained 1.5% against USD
    NZD gained 1.0% against USD
    JPY gained 1.0% against USD
    CHF remained unchanged


    The major news last week was the NFP release, which surprised to the downside and sparked another round of USD sell-offs. However, market didn't react well to Trichet on Thursday either, which made me think that the 1.3400~1.3450 level should be the top for EUR/USD pair this week...

    With USD Index at four month lows, it is very possible that we'll see rebound to USD strength, if this week's FOMC statement provides support. Market is already at the bottom end of the range for every single USD pairs, and it is just now a matter of time for a strong reversal to take place.

    Another important observation is the fact that USD is still a safe-haven currency, but the market reacted though no one was told about this. The immediate outlook sounds bleak for the US with the job's number worsening, but floating funds into Euro and JPY is just not the answer. That's another reason I believe we are on the verge of a major reversal soon...

    Statistically speaking, after several weeks in a row of USD weakness, the chances of a rebound is more likely than ever. A small news could spark snowball effect of profit taking and rebalancing of portfolios, therefore I'd use extreme caution at following the current trend (Sell USD) this week.

    Therefore as far as trend recommendations, I'd be looking at the usual suspects, JPY and CAD for reversals. I'd be looking for psychological resistance areas and sell-off from there using a stop/loss of 40~50 pips, in hopes of catching 50 to 200 pips if the market indeed reverses. Here is what I'll be looking for (As usual, use your own good jugment and only follow based on your own research. Don't follow blindly as I'm writing this on a Sunday (I cannot see the future), but assuming there are no surprises in the market, this is what I'd do)

    1. BUY USD/CAD between 1.0100~1.0000
    2. BUY USD/JPY between 85.00 ~ 85.10

    And yes, I am staying away from GBP as the fundamental outlook shows more gain for this currency. But in the event of a major USD reversal, GBP will drop, but it will probably be the most resilient currency against USD.

    Thanks,

    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Aug 8, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Huwee

    Huwee Corporal

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    Hey folks,

    I've put together a Google Calendar of Henry's tradable news releases which you can add to your own Google Calendar (if you use Google Calendar!). This gives you the following:
    1. Notifications to your mobile phone via SMS (for free!)
    2. Translates the time into your local timezone
    3. Allows you to see your personal appointments alongside when the news releases are happening

    Instructions - see accompanying screenshots attached:
    1. Log into your Google calendar and go to "Other Calendars"
    2. Type in "06nlopqpjr7nnehhgc99igak6k@group.calendar.google.com" (without the quotes and the .com should be one word - you'll need to remove the space)
    3. Now click on the drop-down for your newly added calendar "Henry Liu's Trading Signals". Click on "Calendar settings"
    4. Click on the tab "Notifications". Fill in the reminders you'd like - E-mail, SMS and Pop-up.

    If you don't see "SMS" as a drop-down option, you need to configure the settings for your mobile phone in google. Go to your "Settings" (top right) and choose "Mobile Setup" or check Google Calendar Help.

    I'll try to update this calendar every Sunday/Monday after Henry releases his weekly review, so you should only need to add it once and from there on you'll get reminders to help you trade successfully :)

    Hope this helps,

    Huwee.

    p.s. As always, thanks Henry! :- )
     

    Attached Files:

  3. ibham1

    ibham1 Private, 1st Class

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    Very useful Huwee - thanks
     
  4. lotterbe

    lotterbe Recruit

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    that's great Huwee, thanks :)
     
  5. prosperousdreams

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    Awesome calendar function. THANKS SO MUCH! This will help. Didn't know Google Calendar had SMS built-in, and it actually works with Google Voice. LOL!
     
  6. Hady

    Hady Recruit

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    Thanks Huwee great work,
     
  7. Huwee

    Huwee Corporal

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    Cool - hope you find it useful! :- )
     
  8. ecafyelims

    ecafyelims Corporal

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    And to Think

    I've been entering my Google Calendar times manually.
    I should have thought of sharing too. Good Job =D
     
  9. kajsa

    kajsa Recruit

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    Good advice, Henry!

    Thanks for pointing out uj res levels, I made 50 pips yesterday!!!
    /Kajsa


    ""Therefore as far as trend recommendations, I'd be looking at the usual suspects, JPY and CAD for reversals. I'd be looking for psychological resistance areas and sell-off from there using a stop/loss of 40~50 pips, in hopes of catching 50 to 200 pips if the market indeed reverses. Here is what I'll be looking for (As usual, use your own good jugment and only follow based on your own research. Don't follow blindly as I'm writing this on a Sunday (I cannot see the future), but assuming there are no surprises in the market, this is what I'd do)

    1. BUY USD/CAD between 1.0100~1.0000
    2. BUY USD/JPY between 85.00 ~ 85.10""
     

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