Upcoming Signals Overview (December 6 ~ 10, 2010)

[Henry Liu]

Hey Folks:

Happy Holidays as we are officially in December! Looking at this week's news releases, you'll probably agree with me and call this week the "Interest Rate" week as we will be trading 4 rate decisions, starting on Monday... This may be the last week in December that is worth our time trading, as liquidities will start to die down towards the end of the week, and next week would probably just be a very slow week.

However, if there are any unexpected news events, such as Portugal needs a bailout or Koreans declare war, then expect to see some extreme market volatility (and mostly uni-directional).

Here's the list for this week:

1. Mon Dec. 6, 2010 10:30pm EST - AU RBA Interest Rate
Historical Chart & Data

2. Tue Dec. 7, 2010 9:00am EST - CA BOC Interest Rate
Historical Chart & Data

3. Wed Dec. 8, 2010 3:00pm EST - NZ RBNZ Interest Rate
Historical Chart & Data

4. Wed Dec. 8, 2010 7:30pm EST - AU Employment Change
Historical Chart & Data

5. Thu Dec. 9, 2010 7:00am EST - UK BOE Interest Rate
Historical Chart & Data

... and some untradable releases...

Since Trade Balances and UoM Consumer Sentiments are considered as 2nd tier news events, we'll take an early weekend on Friday and skip any news trading...

As far as weekly trend is concerned, let me just share with you my thoughts. Last Friday's NFP came out worse than expected. Market reacted by selling off the USD and we saw exaggerated gains in AUD, EUR, and most other majors. However, I don't think that the overall trend for USD has changed. Here's why:

1. Market knows that U.S. Economy is struggling. This just confirms it.
2. Bernanke's QE2 program is still on-going.
3. One NFP release is not enough to change market trend... we may need to see a few more to decide.
4. There could be a strong surge in employment for the last month in 2010, as temporary hirings for the holiday season may boost employment.
5. A revision for this month's release could change market perception in early January.

And if you really look at the reason why AUDUSD and EURUSD dropped against USD until Friday of last week, you'd realize that the strength in USD does not have much to do with U.S.' fundamental, but everything to do with the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and China's policy to curb inflation.

So my view is quite simple, China is still going to raise bank reserve requirement and possibly hike interest rate, Portugal or Spain or Hungagy or any other peripheral European nations may request or rumored to request assistance from IMF, and we should see some strong bearish moves driving EURUSD back down to the 1.3000 level (and AUDUSD back to 0.9550).

However, without a strong USD, it may take a bit longer, but the general trend is still unchanged in my opinion.


Thanks,

 

[Huwee]

Thanks for your hard work Henry !

Folks,

I've put together a Google Calendar of Henry's tradable news releases which you can add to your iPhone or your own Google Calendar. This gives you the following:

1. Translates the time into your local timezone
2. Allows you to see your personal appointments alongside when the news releases are happening
3. And if you have a Google Calendar account - notifications to your mobile phone via SMS (for free!)

Instructions (you only need to add this once and it will appear every week)

Adding to iPhone:

1. Send an e-mail to your iPhone with the e-mail body of "webcal://www.google.com/calendar/ical/06nlopqpjr7nnehhgc99igak6k%40group.calendar.google.com/public/basic.ics" (without the quotes and remove the extra space before the '.com')
2. On your iPhone, open the e-mail and click on the link.
3. When prompted "Subscribe to the calendar: 'Henry Liu's Trading Signals'?", click "Subscribe".
4. Open your calendar and it will say "The Calendar 'Henry Liu's Trading Signals' has been added"
5. Click "Done".

Adding to your own Google Calendar and setting SMS notification (see accompanying screenshots attached):

1. Log into your Google calendar and go to "Other Calendars"
2. Type in "06nlopqpjr7nnehhgc99igak6k@group.calendar.google.com" (without the quotes and the .com should be one word - you'll need to remove the space)
3. Now click on the drop-down for your newly added calendar "Henry Liu's Trading Signals". Click on "Calendar settings"
4. Click on the tab "Notifications". Fill in the reminders you'd like - E-mail, SMS and Pop-up.

If you don't see "SMS" as a drop-down option, you need to configure the settings for your mobile phone in Google. Go to your "Settings" (top right) and choose "Mobile Setup" or check Google Calendar Help.

I'll try to update this calendar every week after Henry releases his weekly review, so you should only need to add the calendar once and from there on you'll get reminders every week to help you trade successfully

Hope this helps,

Huwee.

 

[Ahmed H]

THank for your analysis henry.. I dont think we will have much to trade this week..