Upcoming Signals Overview (July 26~30, 2010)

Henry Liu

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks:

Henry Liu here again with an overview of upcoming high impact tradable releases for the week. As usual, I will be sending you more detailed analysis on each release about a day before their schedule.

So following the tradition, let's look at what took place before last week:

EUR Gained 2.5% Against USD
GBP Gained 1.5% Against USD
CAD Lost 2.0% Against USD
AUD Lost 1.0% Against USD
NZD Remained Unchanged
JPY Gained 2.0% Against USD
CHF Gained 0.5% Against USD

...and what happened last week...

EUR remained unchanged
GBP gained 1.0% against USD
CAD gained 2.0% against USD
AUD gained 3.0% against USD
NZD gained 2.0% against USD
JPY lost 1.0% against USD
CHF remained unchanged

Looking at the market, we are seeing excessive gains in commodity currencies, and unless we get further news to support this sentiment, expect some pullbacks on AUD, NZD, and CAD this week from a purely statistical point of view.

Looking at the 2nd quarter GDP data out of UK, we are now seeing a much better outlook for UK, even though many analysts agree that this may very well be the best quarter "for some time" from UK. However, let's put things in perspective... GDP is released quarterly, and we'll have two more releases out of UK for the 2nd quarter, and they will be focused on the optimism... The next prelim GDP release will be in October on the 3rd quarter, and from now until then there is pretty much enough time to see GBP soar against USD... I believe we could see GBP/USD between the 1.62~1.70 level in the next few months, as both negative outlooks in U.S. and the rest Europe should push demand higher for the Sterling.

So my bias towards Sterling is pretty much buy on dips. I think if you refrain from SELLING Sterling and just wait for GBP/USD or GBP/JPY to drop towards support levels, your chances of making pips on BUYs are going to be much higher...

Another possibly trend changing news was the drop in CPI or Inflationary pressure in Canada. As BOC Carney cautiously reminded the public that BOC will be monitoring global economy and its own inflation in deciding future monetary policy, it is very likely that having a negative reading may add to some concerns over CAD despite of rising crude prices. Let's face it, because of the proximity to U.S., Canada's economy is expected to be dragged down somewhat, which makes CAD a perfect currency to play short term range trade, and with the recent CPI release, we should be looking to BUY USD/CAD whenever it dips down, I would not expect to see USD/CAD drop down to 1.0100 level, much less parity with USD... so whenever we see market pushing this the "wrong way", I'd call a buy, buy, buy... Look at your 4 hour charts and find those support areas, they should provide entry levels on the USD/CAD pair.

Ok, so let's move on:

1. Tue July 27, 2010 (9:30pm EST) AU CPI q/q
For historical charts & data on AU CPI q/q

2. Wed July 28, 2010 (5:00pm EST) NZ RBNZ Cash Rate
For historical charts and data on NZ RBNZ Cash Rate

3. Fri July 30, 2010 (8:30am EST) US Advanced GDP q/q
For historical charts and data on US Adv. GDP q/q

4. Fri July 30, 2010 (8:30am EST) CA GDP m/m
For historical charts and data on CA GDP m/m

Here are some untradable releases:

  1. A. Mon July 26, 2010 (10:00am EST) US New Home Sales - Since U.S. housing is expected on a decline, I decided to skip this release today...
  2. B. Tue July 27, 2010 (10:00am EST) US CB Consumer Confidence - Usually we don't get much market reaction for this release, unless we get a huge deviation...
  3. C. Wed July 28, 2010 (8:30am EST) US Durable Goods - Not really a market mover anymore. But I am watching it... Note Durable goods is correlated with Housing data, so if we get worse housing data in general, expect a decline in this release as well...
  4. D. Thu July 29, 2010 (8:30am EST) US Unemployment Rate - This release usually matter when it's the NFP week...

Ok folks, this is it. Remember I'll be sending you more detailed analysis for each and every tradable releases before their schedule...


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Thank you so much for all of your hard work. Your advice is truly appreciated, and I look forward to your updates.

Happy Trading!:D


Precious advice

thanks henry for your precious advice . i have been getting good results so far .


Henry, thank you for your insight.....

I already have Short position opened quite some time ago in both GBP/USD and GBP/JPY as they are both appear to be overbrought in the 4H chart. What is your advice? Should i close them now or hold till they test their support?

GBP/USD now testing 1.5469 which may be a possible Double Top in the making.
GBP/JPY seems to have a strong resistance at 136.40

Thanks and appreciate your comments.


MR. Liu, Very glad to here your comment on GBP. I am long from 1.51917 (07/22/2010) with a target of 1.58012. I am a "trained" Forex novis and growing every day. Nice to hear an experianced trader see what I saw. I paper traded for a little over a year before going live with a 4k account this Feburary. Wae up to $5519.23 but am now at $4505.62. So far I am in the green but I still give back about 2/3 of what I gain. Two steps forward and 1 backwards. Still in the game and learning. God Bless



Hi Henry
i appreciate your effort and kind gesture.your news analysis has helped me in my trading.thank you so much.


Hi Henri, thanks for the great analysis - they´re working for me so far! Do you have a link to autpmatically quote these on Twitter? (Twitter.com/4xStrategies)



hi henry. thanks alot for your analysis. i've never realized the impact of fundamental analysis on technical trades until i read this post. am new to forex. i'll like to know where i can more fundamental analysis that can aid my technical analysis.