Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Hey Folks:
The market is still rather focused on the risk aversion development in the Middle East and there are now possibilities of spilling over to Saudi Arabia. But a closer look at the current market situation convinces me that the tension will ease eventually as the situation in Libya is likely to be resolved (3-7-11 9:31am Arab Press stating that Kaddafi is negotiating with opposition) soon and the economy in Saudi Arabia is in a totally different state than Libya, civil unrest is not likely to escalate to civil war and interrupt crude supplies.
However, speculators will speculate regardless, and with 90% of the currency market being driven by speculators, we may see market getting a bit more antsy before recovering... but with the U.S. NFP release last Friday, I do see the light at the end of tunnel, at least for USD...
Therefore, please keep this context in mind when trading news this week.
We have only a few tradable releases, so I would expect a sentiment driven market as results of the geopolitical development.
Here's the list of tradable releases:
1. Wed March 9, 2011 - 3:00pm EST - NZ RBNZ Rate Decision
Historical Chart & Data
2. Wed March 9, 2011 - 7:30pm EST - AU Employment Change
Historical Chart & Data
3. Thu March 10, 2011 - 7:00am EST - UK BOE Rate Decision
Historical Chart & Data
4. Fri March 11, 2011 - 7:00am EST - CA Employment Change
Historical Chart & Data
5. Fri March 11, 2011 - 8:30am EST - US Core Retail Sales
Historical Chart & Data
... We will also watch the CPI y/y release from China at 9:00pm EST on Thursday. Although it is not tradable, I do believe that a weaker than expected release will probably drive down AUD a bit...
Thanks,
The market is still rather focused on the risk aversion development in the Middle East and there are now possibilities of spilling over to Saudi Arabia. But a closer look at the current market situation convinces me that the tension will ease eventually as the situation in Libya is likely to be resolved (3-7-11 9:31am Arab Press stating that Kaddafi is negotiating with opposition) soon and the economy in Saudi Arabia is in a totally different state than Libya, civil unrest is not likely to escalate to civil war and interrupt crude supplies.
However, speculators will speculate regardless, and with 90% of the currency market being driven by speculators, we may see market getting a bit more antsy before recovering... but with the U.S. NFP release last Friday, I do see the light at the end of tunnel, at least for USD...
Therefore, please keep this context in mind when trading news this week.
We have only a few tradable releases, so I would expect a sentiment driven market as results of the geopolitical development.
Here's the list of tradable releases:
1. Wed March 9, 2011 - 3:00pm EST - NZ RBNZ Rate Decision
Historical Chart & Data
2. Wed March 9, 2011 - 7:30pm EST - AU Employment Change
Historical Chart & Data
3. Thu March 10, 2011 - 7:00am EST - UK BOE Rate Decision
Historical Chart & Data
4. Fri March 11, 2011 - 7:00am EST - CA Employment Change
Historical Chart & Data
5. Fri March 11, 2011 - 8:30am EST - US Core Retail Sales
Historical Chart & Data
... We will also watch the CPI y/y release from China at 9:00pm EST on Thursday. Although it is not tradable, I do believe that a weaker than expected release will probably drive down AUD a bit...
Thanks,
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