Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Hello Folks:
Here are the news releases that we'll be trading this week. I'll be sending you more detailed analysis as usual in the coming days. Thanks.
Tradable Releases
1. Mon Sept. 13, 2010 6:45pm EDT - NZ Retail Sales m/m
Historical Data & Chart
2. Tue Sept. 14, 2010 4:30am EDT - UK CPI y/y
Historical Data & Chart
3. Tue Sept. 14, 2010 8:30am EDT - US Core Retail Sales m/m
Historical Data & Chart
4. Wed Sept. 15, 2010 5:00pm EDT - NZ Interest Rate
Historical Data & Chart
5. Thu Sept. 16, 2010 4:30am EDT - UK Retail Sales m/m
Historical Data & Chart
6. Fri Sept. 17, 2010 8:30am EDT - US Core CPI m/m
Historical Data & Chart
...and some untradable releases...
Market Overview
We've ended another mixed trading week as traders desperately look for direction. With Commodity Currencies such as AUD, NZD, and CAD gaining against USD on the back of favorable fundamental data, European currencies traded weaker against USD on concerns over sovereign debt and slowdown over global economic recovery.
Looking ahead this week, we'll have several important data out of US, UK, and NZ. We should focus on the Retail Sales out of the US because it probably is the focus of the week as this event could change the short-term trend of the market for USD.
Looking at long-term views of the market, I believe we may see some further weakness in the NZD, especially against AUD. It is possible that the AUDNZD pair may be heading towards the 1.3300 level once again, counting on the difference in investor sentiments between these two currencies.
In the European front, I believe EURO may have reached a possible top. It is very likely that we may see EURUSD weaken in the coming days... however, the current market is still highly uncertain, therefore it's probably best to stay out. As far as GBP is concerned, we saw a nice support level being formed at the 1.5300 level, which means it may make sense to look for rebound at this level and risk 30~50 pips on a BUY. If market bounces back, we could very easily pick up 60~100 pips on a 1:2 risk to reward ratio.
Hopefully market will be more clearer next week... In the meantime, use caution as always,
Thanks,
Here are the news releases that we'll be trading this week. I'll be sending you more detailed analysis as usual in the coming days. Thanks.
Tradable Releases
1. Mon Sept. 13, 2010 6:45pm EDT - NZ Retail Sales m/m
Historical Data & Chart
2. Tue Sept. 14, 2010 4:30am EDT - UK CPI y/y
Historical Data & Chart
3. Tue Sept. 14, 2010 8:30am EDT - US Core Retail Sales m/m
Historical Data & Chart
4. Wed Sept. 15, 2010 5:00pm EDT - NZ Interest Rate
Historical Data & Chart
5. Thu Sept. 16, 2010 4:30am EDT - UK Retail Sales m/m
Historical Data & Chart
6. Fri Sept. 17, 2010 8:30am EDT - US Core CPI m/m
Historical Data & Chart
...and some untradable releases...
- Tue Sept. 14, 2010 5:00am EDT - EU German Zew Economic Sentiment - Not a strong enough news event to generate consistent results.
- Wed Sept. 15, 2010 4:30am EDT - UK Claimant Count - Not a strong enough new event to produce consistent results.
- Wed Sept. 15, 2010 5:00am ~ 6:30am EDT - UK Inflation Report Hearings - We'll be paying attention to it, but we can't plan ahead.
- Thu Sept. 16, 2010 8:00am EDT - CH Libor Rate - No surprise expected, thus no trading opportunity.
- Thu Sept. 16, 2010 8:30am EDT - US PPI & Unemployment Claims - These reports won't make enough impact to warrant a trade.
- Thu Sept. 16, 2010 9:00am ~ 10:00am EDT - US TIC & Philly Fed - Market will move only in extreme cases, I've seen 50 billion of difference on the TIC and market moved a whopping 3 pips... as for Philly Fed, only a strong surprise is likely to move the market, and most often than not, we'll get very little market reaction.
- Fri Sept. 17, 2010 9:55am EDT - US Prelim UoM Consumer Confidence - Only moves the market in extreme cases. I'd probably be heading to the beach at the release time, so I'm going to skip it.
Market Overview
We've ended another mixed trading week as traders desperately look for direction. With Commodity Currencies such as AUD, NZD, and CAD gaining against USD on the back of favorable fundamental data, European currencies traded weaker against USD on concerns over sovereign debt and slowdown over global economic recovery.
Looking ahead this week, we'll have several important data out of US, UK, and NZ. We should focus on the Retail Sales out of the US because it probably is the focus of the week as this event could change the short-term trend of the market for USD.
Looking at long-term views of the market, I believe we may see some further weakness in the NZD, especially against AUD. It is possible that the AUDNZD pair may be heading towards the 1.3300 level once again, counting on the difference in investor sentiments between these two currencies.
In the European front, I believe EURO may have reached a possible top. It is very likely that we may see EURUSD weaken in the coming days... however, the current market is still highly uncertain, therefore it's probably best to stay out. As far as GBP is concerned, we saw a nice support level being formed at the 1.5300 level, which means it may make sense to look for rebound at this level and risk 30~50 pips on a BUY. If market bounces back, we could very easily pick up 60~100 pips on a 1:2 risk to reward ratio.
Hopefully market will be more clearer next week... In the meantime, use caution as always,
Thanks,
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