Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Hey Folks:
Sorry for the delay this week, but since we didn't have any tradable news for the first 3 days of the week, I decided to take some much needed time off for the R&R... but I am back now and ready to rock'n roll
As usual, I will be posting detailed analysis for each of the tradable reports listed below, make sure you check back this section for more detail.
1. Thu Sept. 30, 2010 8:30am EDT - CA GDP m/m
Historical Chart & Data
2. Fri Oct. 1, 2010 4:30am EDT - UK Manufacturing PMI
Historical Chart & Data
3. Fri Oct. 1, 2010 10:00am EDT - US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Historical Chart & Data
... and here are the untradable releases
Last week we've reached extreme levels in EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCHF, and NZDUSD... Market is already showing signs of strain at the start of the week, and I'd like to caution everyone to unwind their short positions against USD, especially on the EURUSD pair. I believe we may see some heavy consolidation this week, as EURUSD could be heading towards the 1.3100 level.
Of course this week is relatively quiet for news trading, but broader market risk sentiment may end up driving the market... with early credit rating cut on the Anglo-Irish bank on Monday, any other similar news will be the catalyst to push EURUSD around...
Furthermore, the COT report last week from CFTC showed a complete net position change on the EUR from -7,025 v +9,670 prior, with COT index 44.8 v 51.8 prior... this shift in the net position shows an extreme sentiment change as the EUR position is net short...
Combining the fact that the net short position on the USD has dropped to -4,140 v -6,889 prior, COT index 57.8 v 52.7 prior, I am looking forward for more sellers coming into selling the EURUSD as soon as we get a strong news catalyst to kick off the move.
Thanks,
Sorry for the delay this week, but since we didn't have any tradable news for the first 3 days of the week, I decided to take some much needed time off for the R&R... but I am back now and ready to rock'n roll
As usual, I will be posting detailed analysis for each of the tradable reports listed below, make sure you check back this section for more detail.
1. Thu Sept. 30, 2010 8:30am EDT - CA GDP m/m
Historical Chart & Data
2. Fri Oct. 1, 2010 4:30am EDT - UK Manufacturing PMI
Historical Chart & Data
3. Fri Oct. 1, 2010 10:00am EDT - US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Historical Chart & Data
... and here are the untradable releases
- Thu Sept. 30, 2010 8:30am EDT - US Unemployment Claims & Final GDP - Both releases are not market movers, and because they are released at the same time, chances are that the market will be hard to read, therefore it's better safe than sorry.
- Fri Oct. 1, 2010 3:15am EDT - CH Retail Sales - CHF is usually not affected by its fundamental outlook, therefore I don't expect much impact from this release.
Last week we've reached extreme levels in EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCHF, and NZDUSD... Market is already showing signs of strain at the start of the week, and I'd like to caution everyone to unwind their short positions against USD, especially on the EURUSD pair. I believe we may see some heavy consolidation this week, as EURUSD could be heading towards the 1.3100 level.
Of course this week is relatively quiet for news trading, but broader market risk sentiment may end up driving the market... with early credit rating cut on the Anglo-Irish bank on Monday, any other similar news will be the catalyst to push EURUSD around...
Furthermore, the COT report last week from CFTC showed a complete net position change on the EUR from -7,025 v +9,670 prior, with COT index 44.8 v 51.8 prior... this shift in the net position shows an extreme sentiment change as the EUR position is net short...
Combining the fact that the net short position on the USD has dropped to -4,140 v -6,889 prior, COT index 57.8 v 52.7 prior, I am looking forward for more sellers coming into selling the EURUSD as soon as we get a strong news catalyst to kick off the move.
Thanks,
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