USD/CHF Daily Video, November 16, 2010

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,629
Good morning,
In the previous weekly Thread I have a conversation and said that it can be a DRPO on weekly time frame of CHF. Yesterday, somebody asked me about it (Icarus, if I do not mess something). Well, In general, yes, this is a perfect DRPO Buy on weekly time frame. But it's not so simple as it appears to be. There are some tricky moments exist currently:




portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
 
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dpowen

Private
Messages
22
Good morning,
In the previous weekly Thread I have a conversation and said that it can be a DRPO on weekly time frame of CHF. Yesterday, somebody asked me about it (Icarus, if I do not mess something). Well, In general, yes, this is a perfect DRPO Buy on weekly time frame. But it's not so simple as it appears to be. There are some tricky moments exist currently:

.[/I]
Hi Sive,

I have attached a daily chart of the USDCHF and I would like your feedback.

Why could the USDCHF not have the following bearish butterfly reversal pattern forming that would be supportive of the Weekly DRPO pattern than has just formed.

Can you briefly explain why this doesn't work regarding the butterfly pattern as seems to have good symmetry and good retracements of key fib levels within the pattern.

Thanks

D.

 

dpowen

Private
Messages
22
USDCHF Analysis

Hi Sive,

Can you please explain why this is not a valid daily bearish butterfly reversal pattern forming on the USDCHF Daily timeframe? This would support the current bullish DRPO on the weekly.

Pattern seems to have good symmetry at key fib retracement levels within the pattern. Only a very brief explanation is required but I would just like to understand what I am missing. Even just a name of a book would be great.

Thanks

D.

 
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Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,629
Hi Sive,

Can you please explain why this is not a valid daily bearish butterfly reversal pattern forming on the USDCHF Daily timeframe? This would support the current bullish DRPO on the weekly.

Pattern seems to have good symmetry at key fib retracement levels within the pattern. Only a very brief explanation is required but I would just like to understand what I am missing. Even just a name of a book would be great.

Thanks

D.
Well, I'm not pretend on absolute opinion. But, personally, I try to use solid retracements for Butterfly building.
On your chart you're using just shallow retracement in strong move down. In fact this whole move is a single leg.
Besides, the first retracement to the upside looks smaller then even 5/8. Usually butterflies reach 0.786 or 0.88 retracments.
I think that the DRPO Buy is a determinant pattern. Other words, If market will go up further I think that it will be due to DRPO and not to this butterfly.
But it does not mean that it couldn't work. It's just my view...
 

ALF

Private, 1st Class
Messages
62
Eur Nzd

Hi Sive,

Do you trade this couple? Any comments on the current technical levels?

Thanks.
 

ALF

Private, 1st Class
Messages
62
Eur Usd reached 1.3515 area

Hi Sive,

Following your weekly reports, is now the right time for entering the market on the long side?

Thanks.
 
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