USD short term/long term view

[Alex-the-Gr8]

Long term, I'm still bullish on the dollar. Non Farm payrolls came in lower than expected - although US the jobless rate hit a 26 year high. All of us traders need to be aware that the commodity dollars are still beating up on the USD short term. Risk appetite is outpacing technical/fundamental analysis for the beginning of the week. Look for the BoE and RBNZ announcements later in the week. Could be a driving force - and as always, the commentary is more important than the actual decision. Listen up!

 

[Tiger21]

Monitoring the dollar relative to the DXY index (euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Swedish krona) and it is becoming readily apparent that the next move for the dollar is done vs. most major currencies. With the DXY at 76.291, close to breaking through the support of 75.89 reached on Sept 22, 2008. Once it falls through that support level, it will be smooth sailing to 70.

 

[Tiger21]

Unexpected jobless claims drop in US to 545k from 557k a week earlier. Most importantly was the Street was expecting the number to come in this week at 557k. It’s tough not to continue to be long the Euro. At $1.4735 per euro, it’s the dollar’s weakest level since Sept 25, 2008. The good economic data continues to confirm this trend. I think the easiest thing to do right now is to continue to sell the dollar, however one technical indicator is starting to point against continued strength – the 14-day relative strength climbed to 74, the highest level since March 19. A reading of 70 tends to indicate a rally is approaching an extreme and a reversal may be imminent.