USDJPY - Looking to buy today

dolzsan

Private, 1st Class
Messages
31
Wow! You dont pay much attention to risk/reward....you are the first successful professional trader I have ever heard saying that....that is one of the things that most people drum into you when you are learning.....surely there must be a point where you say the risk isnt worth it.....

Maybe what he means is that risk/reward ratio should not override a trade just because? I don't know USDJPY has been ranging forever now. It would be very improbable that it would run away on us, specially in favour of the Yen... I really don't know though.

Still, I got in at 102.00 and getting a bit uncomfortable.
 

Knight_Rider

Private, 1st Class
Messages
45
Maybe what he means is that risk/reward ratio should not override a trade just because? I don't know USDJPY has been ranging forever now. It would be very improbable that it would run away on us, specially in favour of the Yen... I really don't know though.

Still, I got in at 102.00 and getting a bit uncomfortable.

Was hoping for it to fall to around 101.30 before going in for the next break-out. 30 weeks ranging should be almost done.
 

chamindamp

Recruit
Messages
6
Dear Jarratt

What will be the next support and resistance level for GBP/USD. Thank you very much for your time
 

shogunfx

Sergeant
Messages
260
Got this signal from my robot 2 min ago:

2014.07.07 18:46:58
Buy USDJPY @ 101.8610
SL @ 101.8020
Target 1 @ 101.9200
Target 2 @ 101.9495
Target 3 @ 101.9790
 

shogunfx

Sergeant
Messages
260
Maybe we'll get some move after NYSE close in 12 minutes.
There is a resistance at 101.87
 

shogunfx

Sergeant
Messages
260
Second signal from robot:

2014.07.07 21:15:02
Buy USDJPY @ 101.8930
SL @ 101.7680
Target 1 @ 102.0180
Target 2 @ 102.0805
Target 3 @ 102.1430
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
UJ H4 chart

guys, no offence, but there's 1 thing i don't get, especially re you, jarratt: why don't you use any statistical tool to find the best entry point? i mean, since you have the wherewithal to buy it from a real quant shop, i don't understand why not.

sure, with no leverage and a very well capitalized account, a 100 pip SL is not an issue. but for the average/beginner retail trader, it usually is, especially when buying at around 90 could mean to see the trade go red for 40-70 pips (if the price drops closer to last week's lows) before the turn-around higher occurs; for those traders, pinpoint accuracy might be more useful such as buying a few bars after the turn-around has been confirmed.

i will address the issue of confirmation below.

here's a link to my chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/GWozl945
where you can see 2 tools i custom developed (and a 3rd 1 i modified from the already existing TDI) and which clearly show that the market is still in a down move: price's relative position to the blue/green/red lines and where i drew the circles on the studies at bottom to show that we still have no confirmation of a resumption of the uptrend: no bullish cross on TDI and lower TDI band still not even hit; SB (bottommost study) shows no green/lime circles but only red ones, which signifies we're still looking down; smaller red circles indicates the beginning of a weakening in down move (didn't overly the fib levels, but depending where you draw from, the pivots are around the 50% fib).

problem is as follows: where is the best entry point?

since we don't know whether it is going to be here at the 2 major pivot points or further down between WPS1 and yellow S/R line and last week's low, we need something to give us an idea of what the statistical/probabilistic context is. the blue, green and red line are statistical tools i custom coded for this purpose (and no, they aren't MAs).

so the answer is: when the 1st few candles cross over the blue line, at what levels does this happen? if levels are significant and blue line curves as previously and as indicated on chart with the callouts, and furthermore since blue line is so close to the green and red one, a further indication of change of resumption of the upside would be if blue finds itself above both green and red lines. that would be aligned with the fundamental situation as well and therefore that'd be your confirmation.


for the greenhorns, (don't ask me about the lines as it is proprietary) but the takeaway from all this is to do your statistical homework. there's some very simple and basic statistics (beyond just MAs) one can apply to PA to get a better idea of how to position one's trades.

hope this will give you some ideas and spur your own research in developing your own toolset. (and am not implying that people should disregard fundamentals, on the contrary; but with both, one is even better armed sotospeak ;))


Posted 7[SUP]th[/SUP] July 2014 – 07:30AM London Time

Hey everyone,

I’m looking for buying opportunities on USD/JPY after the pair broke above 102.19, which is its 100 daily moving average, after US NFP data came in better than expected on Thursday.

I’m looking to long this pair around the 102.00 area with a profit target of 102.50 to 102.70 and a SL around 100.90

Overall Bias on this trade


This trade is mainly based off strong US NFP data. I remain neutral on USD in the long term but feel that USD/JPY will rally mainly because of central banks differences, with the FED tapering QE and the BOJ still full steam ahead with their QE programme.

If the price falls down to 101.00 I expect it to be supported, so this would be an even better price to buy USD/JPY.

P.S - If you want to learn more about how I trade, check out this link below

http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex...e-trading-course-forex-pro-jarratt-davis.html
 
Last edited by a moderator:

shogunfx

Sergeant
Messages
260
What robot? Someone bought UJ today? Now I see only one strong support ~101.25 area.

Last Friday I've installed one EA on VPS and sends signals on my inbox all day for 6 pairs.
It's good as alerter to not stay all day in front of monitors.
For example I got this signal on USDCAD today and was right:

2014.07.07 16:42:31
Buy USDCAD @ 1.0644
SL @ 1.0629
Target 1 @ 1.0659
Target 2 @ 1.0667
Target 3 @ 1.0674
 
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