USDJPY - Looking to buy today

ahmer

Recruit
Messages
147
guys, no offence, but there's 1 thing i don't get, especially re you, jarratt: why don't you use any statistical tool to find the best entry point? i mean, since you have the wherewithal to buy it from a real quant shop, i don't understand why not.

sure, with no leverage and a very well capitalized account, a 100 pip SL is not an issue. but for the average/beginner retail trader, it usually is, especially when buying at around 90 could mean to see the trade go red for 40-70 pips (if the price drops closer to last week's lows) before the turn-around higher occurs; for those traders, pinpoint accuracy might be more useful such as buying a few bars after the turn-around has been confirmed.

i will address the issue of confirmation below.

here's a link to my chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/GWozl945
where you can see 2 tools i custom developed (and a 3rd 1 i modified from the already existing TDI) and which clearly show that the market is still in a down move: price's relative position to the blue/green/red lines and where i drew the circles on the studies at bottom to show that we still have no confirmation of a resumption of the uptrend: no bullish cross on TDI and lower TDI band still not even hit; SB (bottommost study) shows no green/lime circles but only red ones, which signifies we're still looking down; smaller red circles indicates the beginning of a weakening in down move (didn't overly the fib levels, but depending where you draw from, the pivots are around the 50% fib).

problem is as follows: where is the best entry point?

since we don't know whether it is going to be here at the 2 major pivot points or further down between WPS1 and yellow S/R line and last week's low, we need something to give us an idea of what the statistical/probabilistic context is. the blue, green and red line are statistical tools i custom coded for this purpose (and no, they aren't MAs).

so the answer is: when the 1st few candles cross over the blue line, at what levels does this happen? if levels are significant and blue line curves as previously and as indicated on chart with the callouts, and furthermore since blue line is so close to the green and red one, a further indication of change of resumption of the upside would be if blue finds itself above both green and red lines. that would be aligned with the fundamental situation as well and therefore that'd be your confirmation.


for the greenhorns, (don't ask me about the lines as it is proprietary) but the takeaway from all this is to do your statistical homework. there's some very simple and basic statistics (beyond just MAs) one can apply to PA to get a better idea of how to position one's trades.

hope this will give you some ideas and spur your own research in developing your own toolset. (and am not implying that people should disregard fundamentals, on the contrary; but with both, one is even better armed sotospeak ;))
This makes no sense to me as every one knows that Jarratt Davis is a fundamental Trader. If you have that holy grail system then show your last 3 months verified trading history.
 

shogunfx

Sergeant
Messages
260
guys, no offence, but there's 1 thing i don't get, especially re you, jarratt: why don't you use any statistical tool to find the best entry point? i mean, since you have the wherewithal to buy it from a real quant shop, i don't understand why not.
Best method I found so far is to draw by hand S/R levels and wait price to bounce from them.
If you follow H4 charts for entries you must trade on Weekly and Monthly charts.
When you spot a entry on H4 it can be too late on this low volatility markets.
Look at charts no far than one year ago when EURUSD normal days were above 100 pips/day and now are below 50.
In this conditions I got best results trading Options.
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
totally agree. the above was intended as an example to illustrate a point, not to imply H4 should be used for short term trading (intraday). but on some pairs, since it takes so long for a directional move to develop, H4 now can be used to see when the market is turning and let it ride for 2 to 3 days (of course always depending on what the underlying fundamentals and key levels are); a good example of this is GJ last week with the bull move from 172.50 all the way up to 175+, which took about 4 days to develop.


Best method I found so far is to draw by hand S/R levels and wait price to bounce from them.
If you follow H4 charts for entries you must trade on Weekly and Monthly charts.
When you spot a entry on H4 it can be too late on this low volatility markets.
Look at charts no far than one year ago when EURUSD normal days were above 100 pips/day and now are below 50.
In this conditions I got best results trading Options.
 
Last edited:

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
ok let me clarify a bit. i've no beef with jarratt's approach and am not saying i have the holy grail (renaissance technologies does). i just thought that it might be useful to give some food for thought to newbie retail traders who are not properly capitalized and for whom 100 pip SLs and long time horizon are not the most optimal approach.

i know i know, the account should be properly capitalized. sure. and when it's not, people either should not trade at all or need to be more nimble and accurate. so, i was just trying to show that for those who are in the latter situation, there still is hope if they combine jarratt's understanding of fundamentals and sentiment with a sound statistical approach, the latter to help time the turns better. the point being: do not ignore statistics and if you've no clue about stats, grab a good book or site on the subject and educate yourself with the goal of applying it to your charts. (for ex, coursera has some good classes about data science and R that can be applied to financial time series statistical analysis).

that's all i was trying to say because some people might not want to hear that if they are not well capitalized enough, they should wait before trading for real. so just trying to say it's possible, but much trickier and to make it a little less trickier, you can combine statistics with fundamentals (and surprised that jarratt didn't mention anything about using statistical tools in conjunction with his fundamental approach since he does take into account probabilities). that was my point. sorry for any confusion.


This makes no sense to me as every one knows that Jarratt Davis is a fundamental Trader. If you have that holy grail system then show your last 3 months verified trading history.
 

shogunfx

Sergeant
Messages
260
Got headlines from my TX squawk service :

USD/JPY continues to find support at its 200DMA at 101.80, with the 50DMA and 100DMA just above at 101.96 and 102.18 respectively; overnight sees a risk event for the JPY currency, with Japanese trade balance due for May (exp. deficit of JPY 822.5bln)

101.80 can be awaited level for a long entry on USDJPY.

Tomorrow Options expires levels for USD/JPY: 101.50 (110mln), 102.00 (90mln), 102.25 (100mln)
 
Last edited:

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
hey shogun, you're right. i just signed up for talking-forex.com. way better value for the money than ransquawk. more options expiries info and they also quote ransquawk at times.
 

ahmer

Recruit
Messages
147
ok let me clarify a bit. i've no beef with jarratt's approach and am not saying i have the holy grail (renaissance technologies does). i just thought that it might be useful to give some food for thought to newbie retail traders who are not properly capitalized and for whom 100 pip SLs and long time horizon are not the most optimal approach.

i know i know, the account should be properly capitalized. sure. and when it's not, people either should not trade at all or need to be more nimble and accurate. so, i was just trying to show that for those who are in the latter situation, there still is hope if they combine jarratt's understanding of fundamentals and sentiment with a sound statistical approach, the latter to help time the turns better. the point being: do not ignore statistics and if you've no clue about stats, grab a good book or site on the subject and educate yourself with the goal of applying it to your charts. (for ex, coursera has some good classes about data science and R that can be applied to financial time series statistical analysis).

that's all i was trying to say because some people might not want to hear that if they are not well capitalized enough, they should wait before trading for real. so just trying to say it's possible, but much trickier and to make it a little less trickier, you can combine statistics with fundamentals (and surprised that jarratt didn't mention anything about using statistical tools in conjunction with his fundamental approach since he does take into account probabilities). that was my point. sorry for any confusion.
Read this.

You are right, He did not mention anything related to charts / technical analysis. He is just trying to help retail traders like the way he trades. You can use your own strategy for precise entry, Risk/Reward ratio etc.
 

erobbs

Recruit
Messages
8
Maybe what he means is that risk/reward ratio should not override a trade just because? I don't know USDJPY has been ranging forever now. It would be very improbable that it would run away on us, specially in favour of the Yen... I really don't know though.

Still, I got in at 102.00 and getting a bit uncomfortable.

Actually, this is EXACTLY what the technical traders say. Have a look at any of the risk management strategies that they put out (try Steve Nisons as an example) - if its a bad risk reward, dont do the trade.

I know I am only new to this so please take my comments with a pinch of salt - its just hard to know what to do anymore.
 

shogunfx

Sergeant
Messages
260
USDJPY don't want up yet. There is a fibo extension bellow 101.70 still in play. Will tray a long position from there. More likely from position 2.

usdjpy 1.png
 
Top