USDJPY - Looking to buy today

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
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1,372
i got weekly 50 SMA at 101.17 and 200 daily SMA at 101.73 (right at the 61.8% fib). if you're using MT4, you gotta be careful. when i was first using MT4, i noticed that for some reason the SMA on daily were not computed correctly.

Like I said 101 handle or 101.19 to be precise of 30 week low and Day 200 MA.
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
well... here's what i'd recommend to anyone new to this:

- first, what we must realize is that jarratt is very well capitalized and therefore once the fundamental direction is clear to him and since he doesn't use leverage, a 100 pip SL is not even close to 2.5% and thus he can afford to buy multiple times almost anywhere (say the news indicates a pair should go up) while price goes down, which is not possible for retail traders with accounts less than 100,000/USD who want to make at least a couple 100 dollars daily on a trade ($10/pip --> 1 standard lot --> 100,000/USD notional order value; if you watched his free vids, he specifically says a 10,000/USD account should open orders no greater in size than 0.1 and 100,000/USD no greater than 1 standard lot)

- 2nd, given the above, when trading off fundamentals only, when the trader gains such strong confidence in the direction of the trade because he feels the fundamentals won't change in, say 1 month, then having an exact entry point is not as important as to the technical trader because if the account is well capitalized, the trader can afford to wait if price goes against his position (right now, his position is 42 pips in loss but that's nothing depending on account size and time horizon) until price direction is aligned with fundamentals again because when the latter occurs, eventually that trade will be in the money; it's just that it might not happen quickly (we are not talking about opening and closing trades based off a 15 min chart)

- 3rd, understand what is necessary for you to learn so you can assess the probability of the next directional move as jarratt does using fundamentals; for ex: i've got the Idiot's Guide to Economics and that book covers all the basics and is easy to understand

- 4th, figure out some basic statistics you can apply in conjunction with fundamentals to reinforce the probability assessment, although not absolutely necessary but, ok well, it's a personal preference just because of how i learned to trade

- then trade by setting your trading parameters (order size, stop loss size, entry point, take profit point, R:R, and how long you'll keep the trade on) according to the total size of your account; in other words, if your equity is 1,000/USD and 1 of jarratt's recommendation entails a 100 pip SL, which would be 10% of your account instead of the usually recommended daily max of 2.5%, then don't take the trade but wait and watch how close the market gets to that recommended SL and take the trade ONLY IF if you see that the market is turning at the SL or gets really close to it and turns before giving you a chance to put your SL beyond the original recommended SL not risking more than 2.5%, and IF nothing has changed fundamentally


trading off fundamentals is quite different from trading off technicals. for one, when trading the latter, more precision is required to time entries and exits, especially if account size is small (< 100K/USD). if using the former, even though fundamentals may indicate a pair should be going up, it might well take a day or 2 before it goes in the direction dictated by fundamentals and in the meantime it might move up and down within a 100 pip range taking out your stop if it happens to be too tight. UJ is a perfect example of this atm. the call for long was given at 102 with a reload long at 101 just before SL at 100.90 just because of the strong conviction in the fundamental direction, which is up.

you need some serious experience and a good feel for market sentiment to have the balls to trade like this IMHO ;)

to conclude, if you are new to trading, then:

- just trade demo until you get the right mental habits and become so used to all the different steps you need to go through that you can set all trade parameters with closed eyes

- stick to proper R:R for now (when you become an expert like jarratt, then you can do whatever the f&%ck you want, but not when still learning)

- only then consider trading with a small amount of real cash and see how you handle your emotions; and if successful, then increase capital and keep on going without ever thinking that this time 'you got it', ie never become complacent no matter how good you might feel because of some early success and the impression it is not so difficult after all (i made that mistake and paid dearly for it ;) )


ok i actually got to do some work. so hope this helps. if i got something wrong, please don't hesitate to correct me.


Actually, this is EXACTLY what the technical traders say. Have a look at any of the risk management strategies that they put out (try Steve Nisons as an example) - if its a bad risk reward, dont do the trade.

I know I am only new to this so please take my comments with a pinch of salt - its just hard to know what to do anymore.
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
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1,372
because he trades off fundamentals ;) (i should have added because fundamental trading is not concerned about exact timing as much as technical trading--fundamental traders have a time envelope that allows for wider fluctuations than a short term technical trader would find acceptable. just look at how banks trade and their time horizon.)

also, the guys over at forexlive.com say that they are concerned that even with the good news for USD, USD is not able to maintain a bullish bias and therefore they caution against USD longs atm.

so go figure. that's the reason i prefer a purely technical and statistical approach to trading. in other words, fundamentally your analysis might be totally correct, but if for whatever reason the market turns stupid on you and trades the opposite way, then fundamentals or not, price will go where market participants take it even if they are wrong from a fundamental point of view. the technical picture will show you the direction either way anyway, so why not trade when both technicals and fundamentals are aligned and not trade when there's a contradiction?

Jarratt bought UJ when it goes down. Why did he suggest so bad entry point?
 
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MiracleTrading

Private, 1st Class
Messages
32
because he trades off fundamentals ;)

also, the guys over at forexlive.com say that they are concerned that even with the good news for USD, USD is not able to maintain a bullish bias and therefore they caution against USD longs atm.

so go figure. that's the reason i prefer a purely technical and statistical approach to trading. in other words, fundamentally your analysis might be totally correct, but if for whatever reason the market turns stupid on you and trades the opposite way, then fundamentals or not, price will go where market participants take it even if they are wrong from a fundamental point of view. the technical picture will show you the direction either way anyway, so why not trade when both technicals and fundamentals are aligned and not trade when there's a contradiction?

Agree. :) As Jarratt said fundamental analysis is easy and his trading strategy is easy, but I don't understand it. :) I think fundamental analysis is no 100%t for currencies. :D
 

ahmer

Recruit
Messages
147
Agree. :) As Jarratt said fundamental analysis is easy and his trading strategy is easy, but I don't understand it. :) I think fundamental analysis is no 100%t for currencies. :D

Jarratt has his own logic of fundamentals trading and he don't focus on Risk/Reward Ratio. He has proven track record of consistent trading and he is the only FCA regulated trader who can share his techniques to retail traders.

His technique may not suitable for us but at least i am learning fundamental analysis and combining his technique with technical analysis.
 

dolzsan

Private, 1st Class
Messages
31
Same here. I've been learning a lot and I'm enjoying trading with low leverage. Low risk, low profits and low stress.
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
i knew nothing about economics or finance but just reading this book: The Complete Idiot's Guide to Economics and reading Sive's posts here on FPA and forexlive.com and TRADING ECONOMICS | 300.000 INDICATORS FROM 196 COUNTRIES, i was able to begin to understand.

when you do, you'll see that all you have to figure out is: what makes a ccy strong or weak, in other words, what makes it attractive to buy or not attractive that traders want to get rid of it, ie sell it. that's all there is to it and jarratt's fundamental approach explains that. i'm sure if you watch the free vids again after reading the Idiot's Guide i mentioned above, it will all click.

but once it clicks, you still need to manage your trade and emotions and therefore your leverage properly.

finally, from what i've learned, fundamentals do apply well to FX and even more so to the commodities market. pro traders have told me the stock market is a technical graveyard (i don't trade stocks, so i wouldn't know, but just looking at how the indexes move, it looks pretty dicey to me) but apply much better to FX. let's see what else... can't remember atm. need breakfast. atb everybody.


Agree. :) As Jarratt said fundamental analysis is easy and his trading strategy is easy, but I don't understand it. :) I think fundamental analysis is no 100%t for currencies. :D
 

Wolverine2

Private
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27
USDJPY Look is very interesting and in this time usdjpy stay for very strong level and i am saw move up said hurry

 
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