USDJPY - Looking to sell today

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Posted 8[SUP]th[/SUP] August 2014 – 07:50AM London Time

Hey everyone,

Today you can look for selling opportunities on USD/JPY after the pair broke below 102.00 overnight, this was supported by risk off sentiment due to US President Obama authorising air strikes in Iraq, adding that action is necessary to avoid genocide by stalling the advances of ISIS in northern Iraq.
Keep a close eye on the news feeds as any further safe-haven flows could push this pair lower. Separately, the BoJ unanimously kept its monetary policy unchanged in an uneventful rate decision.

Wait for a small rally on this pair and get in around the 101.60 to 101.80 area with a target of 101.40 to 101.20 and a SL around 102.20.

Overall Bias on this trade


This is a short-term trade setup and I remain slightly bullish on the USD in the long term and feel that USD/JPY will eventually rally mainly because of central banks differences, with the FED tapering QE and getting closer to hiking rates and the BOJ still full steam ahead with their QE programme.

However, during times of geopolitical risk the yen will strengthen due to safe-haven demand, so I expect sentiment to drag this pair lower for today.

P.S - If you want to learn more about how I trade, check out this link below

http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex...e-trading-course-forex-pro-jarratt-davis.html
 
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siawkia

Recruit
Messages
7
Thanks for the insight Jarratt,

I am currently long on GBPUSD 1.685 and USDJPY 102.5 since the start of the week , should I start averaging down on both? Considering both will rally according to their strong fundamentals.
 

Raymond Loh

Private
Messages
17
Hey Jarratt,

how long do you think this sentiment will last? Does this means that we can take advantage of buying pairs like GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY since it has move lower or it might continue move lower down due to the buying of the Japanese Yen.

Raymond
 

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Thanks for the insight Jarratt,

I am currently long on GBPUSD 1.685 and USDJPY 102.5 since the start of the week , should I start averaging down on both? Considering both will rally according to their strong fundamentals.
Hey siawkia,

I would be willing to add an additional position on GBPUSD at 1.6700 and around the low 101's for USDJPY- however I would want some geopolitical tensions to ease before adding any longs on yen pairs, NZD/JPY is also a great one to get in long - again, I want the risk of safe-haven buying to fade away before getting into long yen positions, I hope that helps!

Jarratt
 
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Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Hey Jarratt,

how long do you think this sentiment will last? Does this means that we can take advantage of buying pairs like GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY since it has move lower or it might continue move lower down due to the buying of the Japanese Yen.

Raymond
Hey Raymond, the bearish sentiment should last as long as geopolitical tensions are taking the headlines, and yes exactly, safe-haven buying will give us great prices to buy the yen pairs back up! But until the tensions fade away I expect all yen pairs to be pressed down - I hope that helps!

Jarratt
 
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cercamon

Private, 1st Class
Messages
42
Hi Jarrat, and how about going long on GBP/JPY?
We have the inflation reading next week and a solid down movement. Which levels would you be looking to enter?
 

Kodali Venu

Recruit
Messages
8
Nzd/usd

Good Morning Jarratt,

Kindly let us know about NZD/USD. Will there any chance of reaching below "0.8400".

Thanks
Venu
 

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Hi Jarrat, and how about going long on GBP/JPY?
We have the inflation reading next week and a solid down movement. Which levels would you be looking to enter?
Hey cercamon,

I think 171.00 to 170.00 is a good level to start buying GBP/JPY at the moment, however I wouldn't jump in long on any yen pairs just yet unless you're prepared to have a large stop loss, mainly because if something does happen between Ukraine / Russia etc, all the yen pairs will fall! I do expect a more hawkish inflation report from the BoE next week so we could see some strength going into the GBP over the coming week!

Jarratt
 
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Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Good Morning Jarratt,

Kindly let us know about NZD/USD. Will there any chance of reaching below "0.8400".

Thanks
Venu
Hey Venu,

I don't think the price will get below 0.8400, I am currently bullish on the NZD, this is because nothing fundamental has changed and it's still a very attractive carry trade due to interest rate differentials between NZD/USD. The only reason NZD has been sold off is due to the RBNZ Governor Stevens, who talked the currency down in his last meeting- this caused bearish sentiment so I'm viewing anywhere around 0.8400 as a good buying opportunity- Hope that helps!

Jarratt
 
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