WaveRider - Back to Basics - S/R, Price Action, MM, Smart Exits, One Indicator, and patience...

[WaveRider]

I created this thread out of frustration. I'd been hunting for holy grail indicators and read about moving average crosses and macd divergence and all sorts of silliness and nothing worked so I decided to stop chasing dreams and start trading and simplify. I've got a good strategy that works well for me now and has made me pip positive. This is part that takes patience and trust in your system. The psychological portion that all successful traders say is the hardest. This is a journal so I'll be posting losses and wins and how I screwed up as well as conquered the world. James16, Sive Morton's EUR/USD analysis (And Joe Dinapoli's book) and Inner Circle Trader are my sources. I took a break for a while from trading to care for personal stuff but I'm back. Page 8 on is the way I trade.

I use an indicator called sessions to mark out who is trading against me: Tokyo, London or NY. Another call sweetspots marking the 100's. I mark key support and resistance lines and I use 3 time frames - daily, 4h and 1h (sometimes the 15m). I take trades off the 1h and 4h charts. I look for one or two big trades per week. I trade the Fiber, Cable and sometimes some others. I've posted many of my favorite strategies in other threads. I use MT4 and Multi-Purpose Trade Manager to manage my open positions.

Stay away from EA's everybody. They are a scam.

Don't give up!

 

[WaveRider]

I'm only trading the daily break out on the EURUSD but I'll trade many others using J16 method. Many pairs are consolidating right now because of the holiday. This should provide for great break out trades in January.

EURUSD is near a weekly support 1.2895. If it breaks this level, is fall all the way to 1.26. I'll look for this move in the coming week.

The second image shows the hammers, shooting stars I'm looking for. This indicates price rejection and a change of direction. Since we're trending down, I'm only looking to sell this, that is if it can break the weekly support.

Since it is at the extreme border of the weekly, this is most likely to have some pull back, I think. Price gets scared and cold and has to go back to the middle of the price action where its safe and unexposed. I'm long term bearish on this pair because the EU is jacked up.

 

[WaveRider]

NZDUSD short

Near top of trend and daily support. Look for reversal price action for a short

 

[WaveRider]

1st win - Up 16 pips

I took this pin bar (#3) off the EURUSD 4h. This was a bad trade though. The spread was about 4 pips. We've just tested (#2 pinbar) the weekly support (in teal) and a major weekly trend line (in red). The #2 pinbar was the better trade as it had a nice long nose and poked through the major resistence and likely indicated price will go up in the short term. I got lucky on this one. I got in at 1.2945 set the TP at 1.2910. SL at next resistance at 1.2974. I bailed early on this one after I realized it wasn't the set up I was looking for but I was already positive on the trade. You can see price moved against me some after i got out. It still may be a full winner but I'm glad I'm out.

I want price to tell me it's going to break through or reverse. A break through will probably be the most profitable.

 

[WaveRider]

AUDCAD at a decision point

First is daily at a major trend line and at a resistance at 1.0430. On the 4h I'll look for bearish engulfing to show move back to center. If it can penetrate the trend line again it should go to 1.0330. If it breaks out, target is at 1.0530 or so, maybe 1.0600.

 

[RahmanSL]

Hi WaveRider,

I believe and agree with what Sieve mentioned last week that the EUR/USD is on a false break trend upwards and will go further down before any reversal can happen.
In fact I have been doing precisely that....i.e going short on any meaningful movements upwards....and have been correct even as I post.

Most Traders & investment bankers are probably still on extended holiday and so we might not see any real market movements for the whole of this week. So, I will be bearish for the week.

Cheers & all the best!

 

[along]

hi Wave,

welcome on board, just want to wish you good luck with your pin bar trading. I should trade with this strategy too
but using longer time frame make me really fed up waiting.

enjoy your stay and all the best

c u later

 

[Fxonuoha]

that's the way!

I took this pin bar (#3) off the EURUSD 4h. This was a bad trade though. The spread was about 4 pips. We've just tested (#2 pinbar) the weekly support (in teal) and a major weekly trend line (in red). The #2 pinbar was the better trade as it had a nice long nose and poked through the major resistence and likely indicated price will go up in the short term. I got lucky on this one. I got in at 1.2945 set the TP at 1.2910. SL at next resistance at 1.2974. I bailed early on this one after I realized it wasn't the set up I was looking for but I was already positive on the trade. You can see price moved against me some after i got out. It still may be a full winner but I'm glad I'm out.

I want price to tell me it's going to break through or reverse. A break through will probably be the most profitable.

Hello waverider,
what a nice way to start the new yr.
Just know u've got a lot of thumbs up on this one....can u pls tell me how to make screenshots,
at any rate I could contribute to your thread with ideas of mine.

 

[WaveRider]

Hi guys

Hi Rahman, Along and Fxonuoha. Thanks guys for the vote of confidence. I was hoping you guys would post here.

Sive is really my expert adviser. Too bad he only does the EURUSD. Rahman, are you short the EURUSD already? I was going to wait for a clearer signal. I suppose any major S/R like were at will usually be touched more than once so my trade above wasn't terrible. Still not an A+ trade.


Along, yes, this is a waiting game: ready to pounce not on a young gazelle but a sickly and lame young gazelle. Playing bigger TF's should mean a little less screen time since you're watching moves over a period of months for the right patterns to develop. Less screen time is good for the marriage (hehe) and I'm streaky with my schedule so it's better anyhow.

I traded demo for about 1 year and then live for about 8 months. That's nearing two years of tooling around. I'm ready to be successful at this. I could see I wasn't the successful trader so I should stop trading like me and imitate someone else. I just did +18% in two months while still being sloppy on entrances, exits, multiple positions and risk. That is really great performance for being a lousy trader and I'm sure there was some luck involved. I want to improve on what I've learned and continue to weed out bad habits. From what I read, most successful traders trade selectively, pick higher time frames, use classical S/R levels and smart MM and multiple positions. Fine. I don't feel the need to reinvent the wheel. I'll just learn how to use someone else's.

You may know this but the rule of 72:

72 / (% increase in a given period like a month) = the number of periods needed to double the account.

so

A 9% increase per month will make the account double in 8 months. That ability to create that much of a return in so little time with is what makes forex so amazing. A couple of years with a modest account could mean real financial independence or at least an excellent side job. But I've already been doing this a couple of years. Traders don't lose because of the strategy (that too) but because of the trader.

Thanks again. Feel free to chime in whenever. I'm going over many pairs, maybe 15 or more, looking for proper setups. I don't know how all the pairs behave like I do the EURUSD so if you have observations, great. I need to talk this stuff out so I will be long winded at times in this thread. I'm not lecturing, I'm doing this for me. That's how I discover gaps in my understanding.

 

[WaveRider]

Along, your thread really encouraged me to do this. Thanks.