WaveRider - Back to Basics - S/R, Price Action, MM, Smart Exits, One Indicator, and patience...

Is very interesting how you plan the weekly moves of the prices just by establishing resistance and support lines. It really makes me see what a newbie I am because the res./sup. lines is what is most difficult to learn to me right now. They work most of the time but the price always breaks them in a way that triggers my SL so as you could read in my thread I'm working on fine tuning those SL in my trading strategy. I'm glad to see that you have that part dominated by now and to say the truth I would consider your 70 pips profits per week a solid result in the point of the learning path I'm now. And to think you consider that a bad result! haha :D

Good luck on your trades
 
Is very interesting how you plan the weekly moves of the prices just by establishing resistance and support lines. It really makes me see what a newbie I am because the res./sup. lines is what is most difficult to learn to me right now. They work most of the time but the price always breaks them in a way that triggers my SL so as you could read in my thread I'm working on fine tuning those SL in my trading strategy. I'm glad to see that you have that part dominated by now and to say the truth I would consider your 70 pips profits per week a solid result in the point of the learning path I'm now. And to think you consider that a bad result! haha :D

Good luck on your trades

Thanks man. Well the week gave over 200 pips and I guessed correctly about market direction. I really should have left some portion of the trade on until Friday or some target. You're right. A win is a win. I try to get the weekly range every week. I want the top and bottom of it or at least a good fraction of it. Some weeks that 100-200 pips. It's a good reminder to be realistic. 70pips per week consistently is a great living. I just expect to make 70 on a ranging week, not a strong thrusting week.

Want a leap forward in reading about support and resistance? Go to FPA's you tube channel and watch any consecutive 10-15 of sive morton's EUR/USD videos. He will pick tops and bottoms within a few pips week after week. Pretty amazing. Inner Circle Trader has a youtube channel with his Trading Development Plan and Sniper Field Guide series videos. I trade like him, to the extent I can. Then there is James16 thread in some other forum but I don't remember where it is. That is plenty of free info to make anyone a great trader.
 
Hi WaveRider

See what I mean? You talk about your trading system with complete knowledge and confidence while I, if I were to write my two-bits opinion, would not make much sense because I am not a technical Trader :p....and not really a fundamental Trader either....rather a combination of both after reading & digesting other seasoned Traders' analysis and opinion (both technical & fundamental) of probable currencies direction.

I did try out "technical" trading in my early days, and based my trades on analysis carried out by seasoned traders/analyst/gurus/what-have-you and, while I did make some very impressive profits, I always wipe out my trading account in the end due to over-trading based on the enthusiastic sure-to-win analysis give by some over excited seasoned traders/analyst/gurus/what-have-you which later turned into an "oopphs...sorry guys...my indicator was wrong" but which does absolutely nothing to help the trades already made based on their sure-to-win analysis.

So, we should ALWAYS trade with our own system and own analysis.

Cheers and all the best! ;)
 
So, we should ALWAYS trade with our own system and own analysis.

Cheers and all the best! ;)

True. I spent a long time watching Sive Morton's videos and for some reason my brain will not pick out Gartley patterns. What I do now is way simpler to me. But everyone is different. And Ive read so many magic indicator systems. I'm glad I'm off that treadmill. Run, run, run and never get anywhere.

I think you explained your system well. And it isn't for everyone either. You're welcome to post here anytime you want. Thanks for being so helpful with the new traders.
 
Seasonal tendencies leave room for more downward action. USDX commercial traders are heavily net short and USDX stands at a significant resistance. This indicates we are headed down on the USD. The Euro COT is at a 2y net long by the commercials. Fiber is below the yearly pivot point by a few pips today and Sive says it will likely hold. The US, UK and German bonds show a divergence in yields. the US made a higher low and the UK and Germ made a lower low, indicating a reversal may be here.

Fiber hit our target of 1.3440. I got whipped out on the two up jabbing stop runs late last week so a loss for the week. I had a couple good asian scalps that offset it a little. Bummer to be right about the direction and still lose. My fault for not getting the good fill price and not moving stops early enough. If you leave low handing fruit, The banks will pick it.

If we are due for a major reversal, expect some aggressive stop runs at the Support. No time now to post pics.
 
Cable

Fiber is up in the air. I'd like to see us form an intermediate term low where we are now, pull back some and then go lower. We're in a down trend and while there is some fundamental indication we may change, I'm not convinced. Sive thinks we're headed up. I'll probably just let the week decide where it want's to go and trade the NY opening, since it is safest.

Cable though seems ready to spring up. Bonds are up and we're in a great up trend. We've pulled back now. Are we heading up this week? Check out the MACD divergence. This is the 1h at the monthly pivot 1.6965 and in the order block of and old swing low. This is enough for me. I'd like to see a stop run at 1.6949. If it really breaks this level, we were wrong and we'll take the loss. But we should get a great intraday bounce. Since were in sync with the higher time frame trend we'll leave some on after taking profits.

Buy at 1.6980, SL at 1.3940, PT will be at the 1.27% ext which is 1.7250 but we could also use the last larger daily swing for an objective at 1.7323. Either way, we'll take some profits, move stop to BE and let it ride it out. Today being a range consolidation day means we'll likely have some range expansion days coming up. This would make for a pip haul of 200-300 if we can hit our objectives.

7-28-14 MACD divergence.png
 
Fiber and Cable for the week 8-5-14

Last weeks tally was positive 80. I caught about 90 of the cable's down on Thursday, got 30 shorting the NZDUSD with a simply trend following support broken turned resistance and a 40 pip loss Tuesday on the cable with my botched analysis. I hadn't really been looking carefully at the charts or looking at the COT so hopefully I'm up to speed now. Cable on Monday last week was a continuation pattern, not a reversal.

Fiber - COT shows a 2 year net long by the commercial but open interest is inconclusive. We would be expecting a seasonal low about now. But US yields are up and USDX is up putting down pressure on this pair. We're waiting for a break in market structure to show we're to be headed up, and not a 1 pip stop run, a real break. As of now, we're in a daily sell program, but cautiously.

The week formed a pin bar at the 1.34 big figure and bouncing off the daily swing 50% fib extension at 1.3675. NFP was Friday and I was wondering if the insiders might reveal their hand ahead of time. Wednesday London in red sent the price down. The NY session bought it all up instead of continuing down. Is this an indication someone in NY knew the NFP direction ahead of time? Wednesday's thrust makes me think so. 2-6-3 points is almost exactly what a reversal profile looks like. Strong decisive rejection of a support level. Almost. Point 6 is the 50% fib of the major swing high to low on the daily starting from June 2013 and March of 2013 to May 2014. Plus a 1.3400 big figure and historical S/R level. The "almost" is that Wednesday the ideal would be if point 3 had reached above point 2. It was decisive though and was super typical of a reversal profile in all other respects: the thrust came near NY close (or at London close is ok too). In this case NY bought London's sells. Thursday was an accumlation day, Friday the big jump. When point 4 cleared point 3, market structure was broken. The 200% extension of the break was achieved at 1.3443. That's the distance from point 6 to 3 sitting on top of point 3 to give us point 5. Point 1 was also taken out by 1 pip, confirming market structure is bullish. Just enough to trigger the pending SL's there and let the NY guys take profit. I don't like it to be 1 pip though. I want 10 or 15 pips. Blow through it. If it had been more decisive, I'd say lets all get long next week.

Fiber: Cautiously bullish next week at least for part of the week, while keeping our bearish outlook. If Monday can break above point 5, preferably in a weak indecisive way, I'd think we're heading down again for the week. The downtrend we're in now isn't done and the near term target should be 1.3350. If we break lower Monday, I'd expect a bull week. The WPP is at 1.3412 so maybe we'd hang around there or hit the big figure at 1.3400 before the bounce up on Tuesday. It is a long way down to 1.3366 again and I don't think we'd go that far to run stops, if the goal was a higher week. If we're headed up, we might be reaching for 1.3520. There's probably a big bearish order block there. The Monthly PP is at 1.3484 so maybe we'll have some weak price action up to there and tumble again. The safest thing to do is to wait until we hit one of these and see decisive rejection lower, then get short again.

Long term Fiber goals would be 1.3220 and 1.3100 but we may never see them.

8-2-14 Fiber.png


Cable - The COT shows the commercials are at a 2 year net short and open interest sky rocketed last week showing everybody with money is in a sell program. USDX is up and US bond yields are up putting down pressure on this pair. Seasonally we'd expect a low right now but whatever. It is what it is. The Cable is likely in a major mega trade turning point that occurs once or twice a year. Sell it baby, sell it. Friday's noise left market structure intact. We had a bounce off the 1.68 big figure Friday and in a bullish order block from mid June. Classically we'd see Monday close higher, then the week goes down. Would really love to see an intermediate term reversal up that would allow is to get short again but there was no evidence that was happening last week. We're bearish on the week.

Sell at 1.6850 and I'd expect bounces at 1.6750 and 1.67. These are good places to take some profit. I'd really like to scale into this and accumulate shorts. The place we're reaching for is several hundred pips, maybe 1.62 or lower. Any retracement up in this environment will be suspect and will provide more shorting opportunities. If we rallied, 1.6920 and 1.6950 would probably be a decent upside objective to sell from but as of now the fundamentals and technicals don't indicate any retracement up.
 
Hello wave how is it going?
Great! I think I'll be posting sporadically again. Don't have time for a longer run down for now but I'll be in the markets. I'm in the beginning of a mega trade. I'll post some brag shots later. My schedule is all over the place right now so it tinkers with when I'll be able to trade. I want to marry Sive Morton. I'm already married and very straight but I think I can make an exception.
 
I tried the diamonds News trade today for NFP and got a win. I stay out during news usually but I had a small position in the live account and followed directions. Pretty cool.
 
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