WaveRider Trade Journal

WaveRider

Master Sergeant
Messages
339
Journaling keeps you honest with yourself. My old journal was a lot of noise so I'm abandoning it. I trade a lot differently than I did 10 years ago when I joined FPA. I'll be posting my trade set ups and wins and losses. Was busy for a bit but I should be able to post regularly. Don't give up. I wish everyone happiness and success. Except Pharaoh. He owes me a beer. Thanks to the mods and RahmanSL for being so cool over the years. Ok, Pharaoh too.

Wish me luck, everyone.
 

WaveRider

Master Sergeant
Messages
339
Trade set ups for this week and directional bias.

I want to sell EURCAD. It's in a downtrend on the daily, just finished a 222 sell to the 100% ext. and hit the 318 of the range. Volumes favor a return to selling. I don't see a clean entry behind some K level but if Monday is a sluggish up, I'll get in to continue selling. If it's a selling Monday, I'll accept that I missed this entry or enter a small position and see where the trend goes.
 

Attachments

  • 5-23 EURCAD.png
    5-23 EURCAD.png
    32.6 KB · Views: 7

WaveRider

Master Sergeant
Messages
339
CADJPY is at a weekly decision making point. 70% of the time, price will stay inside the range so we're statistically likely to turn around here. The daily chart shows an enormous MACD divergence. Divergence doesn't matter except at major S/R levels and usually the MACD wins. Price was 6 or so pips away from the 161.8 FE and it's is very unlikely to not hit this target. The 4h and hourly volumes show there's more buying power than selling power. This week, I expect the CADJPY to go up hit the 161.8 FE and show strong rejection. It could retrace to 90.00, then extend to the 100.0 FE on the hourly to do this. Usually at big turn arounds there's a lot of stop running and banks screwing with people. They like to strongly reject to take back money from the trend traders. So no positions yet but I got my eye on this one.
 

Attachments

  • CADJPY Weekly 5-23.png
    CADJPY Weekly 5-23.png
    43.5 KB · Views: 6
  • CADJPY 24h 5-23.png
    CADJPY 24h 5-23.png
    53.6 KB · Views: 6
  • CADJPY 4h 5-23.png
    CADJPY 4h 5-23.png
    55.9 KB · Views: 5
  • CADJPY 1h 5-23.png
    CADJPY 1h 5-23.png
    54.6 KB · Views: 5

WaveRider

Master Sergeant
Messages
339
NZDUSD I took Friday is in profit 30 pips right now. I'm very optimistic about it and I'll let it run. If we have a sluggish pull back Monday/Tuesday, it'll be a good confirmation I was right. If that happens, I'll likely add more to the position.

In at 0.7196
 

WaveRider

Master Sergeant
Messages
339
I got a couple of nice wins this week, had just a few pips drawdown and woke up to profit in the account which is nice. That NZDUSD went against me and I and a couple of scalp trades I closed out too early (they went my way after all) and made me about 1% down for the week which is a bummer but survivable. This is the live account. I'm tinkering with the entries still. Lots of cool stuff happened this week and I'll post my set ups for the coming week. We're entering a new market seasonal tendency this week and next week for several currencies so lots of opportunities coming up.some wins 5-24-21.png
 

WaveRider

Master Sergeant
Messages
339
For the week of 5/31/21

Euro, British pound, JPY, NZD, CHF, AUD all have had strong uptrend starting May 28 historically for the first week, with a corresponding drop in the USDX for a week. After this first week in June, the USD tends to range until the end of june. Ranging markets kill the trend traders but there's lots of good short term trades that can be taken. I'll be looking at buys on Cable, Fiber, and JPY this week. While the CAD is supposed to trend up, oil is supposed to be trending down. I t hink post COVID with everything opening up and economies restarting, oil will continue to rise so I'll expect some strength in the CAD as well. You can see the cursor over the May 28 trough. Every major looks like this for the first week of June.

EUR buy program 5-28-21.png AUD buy program 5-28-21.png

For Cable and Fiber, I'm aware we're in a decision making area and that if we trend up, it'll be for some short term targets before a drop or a range. Means on the USD pairs, I won't keep anything open over the weekend.


Here's the levels I have my eye on.

GBPJPY shot up last week and didn't retrace at all. The old high from the weekly was 156.60 from January 2018 and it looks like we'll run up and hit that. The 4h shows price stepping up and then ranging for 8-12 days with some stabs above and below, the ranges shown in blue. If we're repeating, we'd be entering into a range and the top of the 133 pip range would take us above 156.60 and to the 4h FE of 156.96. The weekly FE would be 157.332. I'm favoring a ranging market and probably a floor of 155.50 as that's how the last two behaved. What I'll be looking for is a stab below this range or near the bottom of it at 155.50-60, a stab above the last peak of 156.07, then to buy at the 61.8% retracement of that newly formed swing and hold until the last peak is hit again. All positions closed before the 156.60. If we are clearing out the old highs, there's a lot of longs in this market and when the old highs are hit, there will be a lot more longs added that will either catapult the pair or give lots of opportunities to close positions by the banks so I expect a lot of volume and I don't expect it to take 8-12 days to get there.

5-30-21 GBPJPY Weekly.png 5-30-21 GBPJPY 4H.png5-30-21 GBPJPY 1H.png
EURUSD weekly shows we're in an old price pivot zone, where lots of ranging has occurred in the past. That weekly top is 1.2550 from Feb 2018. We tend to stay inside the range so we're unlikely to break this top. The 1H has shown a strong rejection of Friday's downward move and then cleared Friday's high. It was a great way to trap the bears and knock out the stops and a very strong break in market structure. If the seasonal tendencies hold true, we'd be buying this week but because of where we are on the charts I'll be favoring a ranging or buy. The next target is the 100 fib ext which is 1.2451. This is 260 pips above Monday's market open and unlikely we'll reach that high next week. The weekly ATR is 151 pips. The 1H shows that ATR target at 1.2350. It could go up to 1.2450, but I see that as unlikely. I'll be a bull or favor a range this week. As always, I expect Monday to be the opposite of the weekly candle, so a sluggish Monday down will provide a safe entry for a buy. The daily MACD is bearish. No long term trades on this currency until the market shows intention. I'll be looking for 30-50 pip moves and not to catch the weekly candle.

5-30-21 EURUSD weekly.png5-30-21 EURUSD 1h.png

GBPUSD is in the same spot. To move up, we'd have to break the old high and I'd expect more of a stop run than a really stong upward continuation. I'm favoring buys or a range on the GBPUSD this week. No longer term holds. 30-50 pips only.

Ranging weeks tend to respect WPS/R so I'll have my eyes on those too.

EURGBP showed some strong action to the downside. If this current move down is harmonic to the last two, it would put the target at 0.8530-40. Both the last downward swings had very little pause and continued. If this behaves the same way, we wouldn't expect a larger upward swing. If it does retrace this week, the K area is 0.8611-18 seen on the hourly chart. Could put a stop above that location. If you just sold Monday, your SL would be about 30 pips and TP would be about 45 pips, so not too bad. I like this pair because it trends well. If you can get into one of the trends, you can hang on for several weeks sometimes.

5-30-21 EURGBP 4H.png

Sive is looking at the AUDUSD for a sell. I did add a small sell position that has a little draw down with the stops above the right shoulder. It's a good safe trade right at the neckline.
 

LHill97

Private, 1st Class
Messages
49
Journaling keeps you honest with yourself. My old journal was a lot of noise so I'm abandoning it. I trade a lot differently than I did 10 years ago when I joined FPA. I'll be posting my trade set ups and wins and losses. Was busy for a bit but I should be able to post regularly. Don't give up. I wish everyone happiness and success. Except Pharaoh. He owes me a beer. Thanks to the mods and RahmanSL for being so cool over the years. Ok, Pharaoh too.

Wish me luck, everyone.
I found my journaling improved big time, by trying to keep explanations on my positions short, sweet and concise.
I wouldn't write more than a few sentences on the trade - whether I took it or not, why I took it or not and I'd check back to see the results.
 

WaveRider

Master Sergeant
Messages
339
I found my journaling improved big time, by trying to keep explanations on my positions short, sweet and concise.
I wouldn't write more than a few sentences on the trade - whether I took it or not, why I took it or not and I'd check back to see the results.
I keep a separate concise journal on my PC of positions and some notes for myself. I'm forcing myself to write a legit analysis of what I think is going to happen as a mental exercise. I even do a Sive Morten syle video analysis that I don't post as away to educate myself. When you attempt to explain something, you expose flaw and gaps in your own thinking and are forced to go back and look at yourself. I'm all in baby!!

I decided years ago, I was going to be a good trader and not a snake oil salesman. I think this is my path.
 

WaveRider

Master Sergeant
Messages
339
I found my journaling improved big time, by trying to keep explanations on my positions short, sweet and concise.
I wouldn't write more than a few sentences on the trade - whether I took it or not, why I took it or not and I'd check back to see the results.
Do you post anywhere? DM me if you need. I think I want to see what you post. I really should be building my community. I've been running a business and finally escaped being owned by it so I'm ready to get back into trading.
 
Top