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Wednesday September 21, 2011 NY TIME 10:00am EDT – US Existing Home Sales

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Sep 20, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hello FPA members

    We have US existing hom,e sales coming out at 10:00AM sharp, This is a major report and should not be missed.

    US Existing Home Sales
    Forecast 4.75M
    Previous 4.67M
    Pair to trade: EUR/USD


    Triggers we need: BUY EUR/USD 4.35M
    SELL EUR/USD 5.15M


    Economical Impact: Extremely Critical
    Typical Result: Good for currency
    Occurrence: Released monthly, about 23 days after the month ends

    Previous Results Table
    Looking at the previous results table below, if my analysis is correct we should see another drop in Home Sales showing another negative number.
    [​IMG]

    Average Pip Range
    [​IMG]


    About our Triggers:
    US Housing sector forecasted to arrive at 4.75M. We are looking for a deviation on this trade of 400K either way. This is a very critical news release as many traders and economists will be focusing on this news release. Should this trade deviate, we will see major volatility in all US pairs. We can expect to see about 45pips on the initial spike, before another 20 pips on a double spike, before we see our required retrace.

    What is it? Why does the market care?
    The Existing Home Sales measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to analyze the strength of the US housing market, which helps to analysis the economy as a whole. While this is monthly data, it is reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Existing homes make up the majority of total sales and therefore tend to have more impact than New Home Sales.

    It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

    Method I use to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
    Approximately 15 minutes prior to the news release, I will be looking for a short term LONG position in EUR/USD.
    I would be out of this LONG trade 2 minutes before the actual release, or to avoid any spreads that should widen.

    I will look for a 30-50% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame.

    I do recommend spike trading as an option when

    Historical Chart and Data for US Existing Home Sales

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Sep 20, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Samuel Siaw

    Samuel Siaw Recruit

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    Hi Starvo, it's me again. Sorry about all the questions as this is the first time I'm trying out your signal service. Here goes.

    1) Pre-news - any signal we need to see before entering LONG?
    2) Post-news - if spike goes down, i.e. unfavourable deviation came out, do we still enter on 30-50% retracement?

    Thanks.
     
  3. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    here are your answers

    1) Please only follow this if you have basic knowledge of technical’s, if not please practice and use various demo accounts prior to using any professional strategy I suggest. To determine my short/long position on an MT4 chart, I will pull up a 1mintime frame of the pair im trading on a chart. I will then load two MA (moving average) indicators to my chart, the first MA I will load will be on set to period 9 whilst the other I will set to a period of 20. I would also recommend you change the colour of both I usually use green and red.

    when I see the down or up trend (depends on cross over) trend occur and my MA crosses over I will enter the trade, I want to be out of this trade in profit at least 2 min before the release. I will have a Stop loss of 15 pips and a TP either when I see the trade looking flat (looking at Volume Bars that is) or when an initial reversal comes to play.

    for your second answer
    2) Yes retracement can be for either a spike down or spike up either way it will retrace.

    Hope you have a great day :)
     
  4. Samuel Siaw

    Samuel Siaw Recruit

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    Thanks Starvo for the explanation. As for the post-news retracement trade, could you clarify it with a chart?
     
  5. Fxonuoha

    Fxonuoha Private, 1st Class

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    hello!

    Hello Stavro,
    thanks on the pre-news signal really worked.
    However,what do you mean by selling half of position on getting to the high point of initial spike?I'm really without my wits over
    that part.:confused:
     
  6. dave edwards

    dave edwards Private, 1st Class

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    Many Thanks

    Thanks again for your insight and I enjoyed watching your strategy in action 20 minutes before the announcement and took a very quick 15 pip profit in the 15 minutes
    Dave
    Cape Town:)
     
  7. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    I'm happy you all made pips ;) I would love to do a educational or a a Live room in the near future to assist all, Its the greatest gift in life when I help people. :)
     
  8. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    Stavro, you really need to consider adding some info about going against the USD in a risk aversion enviroment. Especially on the CPI trades, which are notorious for fast reversals. Many of these guys are getting setup to lose if they short the USD when stocks are getting hammered.
     

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