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Wednesday September 21, 2011 NY TIME 7:00am EDT – CA Core CPI m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Sep 20, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hello members,

    A more interesting report for today, we have CA CPI, please find my trade plan below.

    CA Core CPI m/m
    Forecast 0.1%
    Previous 0.2%
    Pair to trade: USD/CAD

    Numbers we need: BUY USD/CAD -0.1%
    SELL USD/CAD 0.3%


    Economical Impact: Critical
    Typical Result: Good for currency
    Occurrence: monthly, about 20 days after the month ends


    About our Triggers:
    CA Core CPI is forecasted to arrive at 0.1%. We are looking for a deviation of 0.2% on this trade. If we get -0.1% or lower I will look to enter a LONG position on USD/CAD and if we get 0.3% or greater I will go SHORT on USD/CAD. Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 50pips on the initial spike. We also have CPI m/m due to come out the same time and I cannot see this being a conflict.

    NOTE: we are trading Core CPI.

    Results Table showing us Actual, Consensus, High, Low and Ranges
    [​IMG]

    Average pip Range
    [​IMG]

    What is it? Why does the market care?
    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in Canada.

    Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. The common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD.
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

    Method I use to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
    I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame.

    I do recommend spike trading as an option if you are using a reliable broker and an Auto clicker.
    Historical Chart and Data for CA Core CPI m/m

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Sep 20, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. amasmela

    amasmela Corporal

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    I follow your trade news, I would like to get an example to operarte the retracement, you say 30% You enter a trade, but with way of the initial movement or how, I think with a example in graphic will be sth genial. thanks alot
     
  3. Samuel Siaw

    Samuel Siaw Recruit

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    Hi Starvo, I have the same question as the earlier user. Looking at the way USDCAD retraced after the initial (15pips) spike downwards, price tried down again but didn't reach the initial spike low. Then it went up for 24pips in spite of a 0.3% deviation (which signals a sell of this pair). Re-entering on 30-50% retracement, as suggested, would have resulted in a loss trade. Could you advise how we could better trade this or am I misunderstanding the whole method?
     
  4. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    here are your answers

    1) Please only follow this if you have basic knowledge of technical’s, if not please practice and use various demo accounts prior to using any professional strategy I suggest. To determine my short/long position on an MT4 chart, I will pull up a 1mintime frame of the pair im trading on a chart. I will then load two MA (moving average) indicators to my chart, the first MA I will load will be on set to period 9 whilst the other I will set to a period of 20. I would also recommend you change the colour of both I usually use green and red.

    when I see the down or up trend (depends on cross over) trend occur and my MA crosses over I will enter the trade, I want to be out of this trade in profit at least 2 min before the release. I will have a Stop loss of 15 pips and a TP either when I see the trade looking flat (looking at Volume Bars that is) or when an initial reversal comes to play.

    for your second answer
    2) Yes retracement can be for either a spike down or spike up either way it will retrace.

    Hope you have a great day
     
  5. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    I think i will need to do an educational and a video explaining methods :)
     
  6. bluehorse

    bluehorse Recruit

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    Hi,but why if the news was positive for the CAD it went the other way round?
     
  7. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Don't think so... I think its for certain US reports its faster (not all reports) like 1 millisecond, why don't you email and ask them?
     
  8. Akiral

    Akiral Recruit

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    Hello

    Gud day, how can i be receiving daily signal from you?
     
    #8 Akiral, Sep 22, 2011
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2011
  9. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    It's called risk aversion. When the stock markets are headed down, the typical correlation is for USD strength. So, there's no way I'd of taken this trade...it was against the dollar and against risk aversion.

    A forex news trader absolutely must understand what the stock market dynamics can do to affect a news trade action. Selling the USD was a huge mistake.

    I actually waited for the news, knowing that risk aversion was in play and looking for a CAD positive. I set my triggers to sell at +.5 and my buy at -.1. Didn't hit my triggers. Then I used the mini-spike down and immediately started buying. I bought in 5 times and started selling at 100 pip profit. I took 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, and and still holding one lot. If we get another down stocks day, I may hold for 500 pips on the last one. If not...I'll set my stop at 150 pips.

    Lesson: be very wary of selling the USD in a down stock enviroment. Forex action is not just about the news.
     
  10. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    If this is accurate...15-20 ms is HUGE! I use the Pro...gonna have to check out the Elite. I'll try it for a month and report my thoughts on how accurate this statement is.
     

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