Weekly outlook text signal 8/17 to 8/21

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

EUR/USD and GBP/USD have found some momentum in their downtrend, and if you took advantage of either of the sell recommendations I've given in the last two weeks, things are looking pretty good. Right now both the EU and GU are in a 3rd of 3rd wave down that should carry them well beneath last week's lows of 1.4085 and 1.6390 respectively. A shorter term 15 min to hourly chart style bounce could develop around those levels, but I'm pretty confident we'll trade through them without a ton of retracement. As far as ultimate targets are concerned for this 3rd wave minor degree selloff (think 4 hour chart type move that takes anywhere from days to a few weeks), I'll quote Friday's signal:

"On both pairs, we're set up for a very sizable 3rd wave selloff to start soon that should target at least 1.4000, but probably more like 1.3800 before letting up. On GU the next selloff wave should reach at least 1.6000, and more likely 1.5700 and lower."

If the wave analysis ultimately proves correct though, we will see the USD strengthening in primary degree for anywhere from several months to a year depending on how the move develops.

Gold and silver have moved comfortably off of their highs along with the USD strengthening move. Particularly, things are looking like a sloping head and shoulders starting to take form on Silver. I still very much like shorting Silver at current levels (around $14.50 at the moment) looking for a very big long term payoff to the downside, and now we have the USD strengthening accompanyment that should help a lot with that. Support on Silver short to medium term is at $14.13 (last week's lows), and around $12.80 (sloping head and shoulder trendline support). I'm pretty confident we're at least heading below $13 to test that trendline support. Once that goes, we may see $8 and below sooner than you think.

On stocks, we saw a nice rollover on Friday, but we're still waiting for that key break of 992 on the S&P to confirm a bigger rollover towards first 968, but more likely 920 to 955 as an ultimate target. It's possible we're topping out for good and starting the next major bear market selloff... but equities tend to lag some of the other markets by quite some time, so it's more likely at this point that the coming selloff is still a wiggle lower before another final attempt at new highs sometime in September. Long story short is: 1) If you're short stocks, hang on and 2) Whether you're in short or not, add some short on a clear break of 992 on the S&P.

There's no key news out Monday, so we'll start previewing news items with Tuesday's signal. To give you an idea of what's coming up though, here's what I'm looking to focus on for this week:

Tuesday 8-18
0430 UK CPI with Sir Pipsalot
0500 German ZEW with Sir Pipsalot

Wednesday 8-19
*note* skipping 0430 UK BoE Minutes due to last weeks quarterly inflation report
0700 CAD Core CPI - Magister Pips

Thursday 8-20
0430 UK Retail Sales with Sir Pipsalot

Friday 8-21
1000 US Existing Home Sales with Cactus Jack

Thanks, :)
Sir Pips
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is the trading signal predicting GBP.USD to be going downtrend somemore? they are at their mid-lows. Anyways thanks for the trend signal. ~ =)

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hi,how About Oil Price? Is It True There Is A Over Supply Of 15 %
Oil and most other commmodities should head lower as the USD strengthens and stocks drop, but if/when stocks surge back up for one final rally attempt after testing the low to mid 900's, commodities may get a nice little surge as well. After that down and up though, I think we're heading to $20