Weekly prediction by YQC

[Yan Qing Chen]

............ today did not see the blood bath in the stock market which I expect from the failure of the auto bailout plan. I exited my short position at $44.67 and is now long AGAIN .... I'll exit the long position at the end of the day no matter what the price.

 

[Yan Qing Chen]

A recap of this week's trading:

Started the week long Oil and exited on Wednesday when the republicans say they are blocking the bailout. Made some profits here. Turned short oil and exited Wednesday night when the house pass the bailout. Made a tiny profit here. Turned long and exited at week high on thursday afternoon. Made huge profit here. Got in long again on thursday night then exited about 6 hours later when the senate killed the plan. Lost some money here. Turned short and exited friday morning when the stock seems to hold. Made a small profit here. Turned long and exited at Friday close at $47. Made some good profit here. In conclusion this week I made 30 winning trades and 6 losing trades with a very nice profit for the week.

Crazy week, huge volatility, Oil opened this week at $42, closed this at $46.50 despite horrible news. For this month oil is very playable on the long side in my opinion. Don't short it even if the big 3 really file bankrupcy. Oil might close the year above $55. I'll come back early Monday to make a new prediction for next week. Have a nice weekend.

 

[Yan Qing Chen]

This week my prediction is the EURGBP pair will go up. My target is $0.9360.

 

[Yan Qing Chen]

OK, big day today. I made some money on the EURUSD pair. But that pair is sort of like my side bet for this week. I bought some more hoping to see 1.42 in 48 hours. I also bought some Crude oil today. The EurGBP pair is still my main play this week because it is clearly that EUR is a huge favor against GBP for the next few weeks.

 

[Yan Qing Chen]

Sigh ... I just exited all my positions. I think this is the correct move. First of all I don't like how EURUSD twice took a charge at 1.42 only to trace back over 120 pips almost instantly everytime. Also about the Fed rates comes out surprising everybody, market was up huge during the day but no follow up in the Asia markets and the S&P futures right now. Third the supposedly "BIG CUT" in oil production from OPEC tomorrow but no real movement in oil prices. All these reason together made me very very nervous. Feel like a huge storm is coming. I'm just going to sit out for the rest of the week and see what is up. I'll come back with a new prediction next week.

 

[Yan Qing Chen]

Last week hopefully some people avoided the disaster in EURUSD and Crude Oil like I did. However EURGBP would be a big winner at the end. Like I said before, as long as EURGBP is your main play and consisted of over 50% of your trades you should be fine. As for me, I exited early and avoided the whole fiasco. BUT if I had hold on to my positions for 24 more hours then it would be really sweet. I would have raked in a very nice profit and still avoided the storm. What can I say? I'm spooked easily. When I sense a storm and don't know where the wind is blowing, I choose to watch from the sideline. Anyways, any small profit is better than a losing week.

So looking ahead for next week. I see no big movement in any of the pair except EURGBP. Normally I don't play the same pair two weeks in a row but I didn't really played this pair last week since I exited early and also, I don't see anything else worth playing. My prediction for this week is EURGBP going up. My target is 0.9630.

 

[Yan Qing Chen]

To my surprise the price action seemed pretty good today. I added long positions in USDJPY and USDCAD. The distribution of my trades are about the same. I plan to hold EURGBP to friday close and hold USDJPY and USDCAD to Wednesday close. So rather than having a price target for this week, it is more of a time target.

 

[Yan Qing Chen]

A modest profit for the holiday week. EURGBP didn't quite get there to 96.30 but close enough. Well, thats holiday trading, prices move so slow ....

Well, I'm going to stop my weekly forecast to focus on next year's trading. The way I see it, next year is going to be so volitile that I can't really forecast anything on a weekly basis anyways. Trends are going to move so fast that I don't see myself making any prediction even on a daily basis. I'm probably going to shorten my trade cycle to under 8 hours and try to take advantage of the volitility. So it will be mostly like wake up, research for 2 hours, make a trade, watch the market for 4 hours, research for another 2 hours, get out + reverse the trade or let the trade keep on riding, rest for 4 hours then repeat. LOL I will be so busy and I have some very big goals for next year. I enjoyed forecasting here and its been fun while it lasted. Good luck to everybody on next year's trading. Happy holidays.