Weekly review: Gold, USD, EURUSD and Dow Jones



It’s a huge week ahead with three major central banks providing their latest interest rate decision and monetary policy outlook. The US Fed's policymaking committee is due to deliver its latest economic and interest rate policy update on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. The other key economic data also on Wednesday, the U.S. Census Bureau releases its retail sales report for the month of February.

On the earnings front, the companies due to release their results will be GameStop, FedEx, and Accenture will be among those reporting earnings this week.


The safe-haven metal trading marginally lower on Monday and the upside pressure clearly weakening amid a solid ceiling in place, the near-term bias points to precious metal weakness in the week ahead, when volatility is likely to be higher than usual due to rising inflation and geopolitical tensions.

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For this week, the resistance level for the metal is $2010, then the stronger resistance is $2022, which is important to be stable above it for a continuing rise to $2050/70 levels. On the downside, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the $1950 zones, below which the slide could further get extended towards the $1920 regions.


The US dollar index remains in demand as the Russia-Ukraine issue and rising inflation continue to encourage safe-haven demand. For this week, the main drivers for the metal remain the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the FOMC outcome on Wednesday.


This week 100.00 remains the key resistance to watch. On the downside, rejection and pullback from the 100.00 resistance allow for a dip towards 98.70, with 98.40 and 98.00 forming additional downside targets.


The currency pair consolidated the bounce to above 1.1100 last week, with the risks still skewed to the downside amid intensifying concerns that the war in Ukraine could dampen the pace of the recovery in the Eurozone. On the other hand, ECB President Lagarde said during the press conference last week that the quicker winding-down of ECB asset purchases can be described as a normalization process due to high inflation not as a tightening or acceleration.


Technically the overall momentum remains bearish. For this week, the key support area is around 1.0880. On the upper side, the short-term resistance at 1.1050 any break above this level will open 1.1100 then 1.1140. On the other side, if the price break and close below 1.0880, the next immediate support is to watch 1.0820/00.


The Dow Jones erased the early gains on Friday after the U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in nearly 11 years, the University of Michigan reported. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones futures opened slightly higher supported by the positive comments from Vladimir Putin that there were "positive developments" in talks with Kyiv unable to provide much support.


Technically the overall trend still looks mixed, and the immediate support is at 32,800 then 32.450. On the upper side, in case the index manages to settle above 33,000, it will gain upside momentum and head towards the next resistance level at 33,650 and 34,000.

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