Weekly review: Gold, USD, EURUSD and Dow Jones


Global markets ended last week on a mixed note as investors are keeping a close watch on central bank actions as they try to assess the impact of aggressive rate hikes on global growth. It will be a holiday-shortened week in the US, with markets closed on Monday for a public holiday. However, this week is expected to be a busy one, with the main focus on the RBNZ decision, US GDP and FOMC minutes as well as the earnings results from big US retail firms.

Federal Open Market Committee, a committee within the Federal Reserve System (the Fed), will release February FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, the minutes may provide some insight into what we can expect from the Fed over the coming months. Last week, Fed officials hinted at more policy tightening till they see a decisive sign of inflation falling going ahead.

On the earnings front, the companies scheduled to release their last quarter financial results this week will be Coinbase, Nvidia, Walmart, Etsy, Moderna, Alibaba and Baidu.


The precious metal rebounded back to above $1840 on Friday but the overall momentum remains under pressure after the strong US inflation and retail sales numbers reinforced bets for aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. During the last week, the metal hit the lowest level in 6 weeks as a firmer dollar and amid prospects of aggressive monetary policy tightening dented the safe-haven appeal of the precious metal. For this week, gold investors and traders should closely monitor the comments from the FED policymakers and the last FOMC meeting minutes for clues as to their outlook for interest rates.

Technically the overall trend looks bearish after the heavy selling pressure. For this week, $1,818 is the immediate support level, followed by $1,810. If the pair breaks below the $1,810, the slump will quickly extend toward the $1800 and $1795 marks. On the upper side, $1850 will act as an immediate and strong hurdle while $1855 will be a critical resistance zone.


The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies price action remained volatile and traded with a bid tone for the entire last week, with some weakness seen only on Friday. This week dollar traders across the globe waiting for the last FED meeting minutes to get a clear picture of the greenback's long term direction.

The currency pair retreated back to below 104 on Friday. On the downside, 103.40 will act as an initial cushion, any break below this level will open doors to 103. On the flip side, a move above 104.50 again will push the pair into a new trading zone, which may offer further buying opportunities until the 105 and 105.40 zones.


It has been a rough month for the euro due to a stronger dollar and FED's hawkish stance. After tumbling below to 1.0700 psychological level again last week, it feels like bears have won the battle in February. The currency pair could continue to struggle this week as well as the strengthening US dollar continued to sap demand for euro. This week, the movement of the US dollar and Eurozone inflation data on Thursday is likely to significantly affect the currency pair.

Technically the current price action signals suggest that the medium-term bearish trend remains intact. On the downside, the decline is more extensive, and it will be hard to rule out a run towards 1.0600 and 1.0570 if the bearish momentum continues. On the flip side, the first immediate resistance is near 1.0750 followed by 1.0780.


Wall Street and Dow Jones had a messy week despite some good US economic and earnings news. Dow erased the weekly gains as investors continued to bet on further Federal Reserve tightening to bring decades-high inflation under control after the release of a stronger-than-expected US CPI report. For Dow this week, important economic news to watch includes US FED minutes on Wednesday, US GDP report and weekly unemployment claims on Thursday and personal income and spending on Friday.

This week, the Dow needs to stay above 34,100 to have a chance to develop upside momentum in the near term. On the downside, the first key support level is located at 33,500. In case it breaks below this level, it will head towards the next support level which is located at nearly 33,250 then 32,900.

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