What’s going on here??

[RahmanSL]

Stony,

You all are probably right as you, Ricex, ernest8fingers, Pharaoh, Eric Alyea, and the rest at FPA have much more experience in forex trading than I have. So…hehehe… I take it this is not a trading strategy adopted and practiced by anybody in this forum; yah! : )

Ok, still, as I read somewhere on the start of my forex journey, everyone develop their own trading strategy. I have tried scalping, market watch, going with the trend, and most of the other well tried and known trading strategies, but I just don’t have that kind of time to gather and to sturdy such information before executing trades. And, not forgetting to mention, patience too.

That’s the beauty with Demo account, isn’t it, that I can afford to burn the account while trying out each strategy. For now, I will stand by my conviction and see how my “hit & run” trading style on this usd5k Demo account comes out by end March 2010.
Admittedly, I am pretty excited with this type of trading as the profit potential is very much higher (but very much riskier too, to say the least). Nonetheless, this makes forex trading more alluring and interesting.

If I am wiped out, then perhaps it’s back to the well travelled forex road of following the trend, scalping, market watch, etc.
Or, perhaps, forex trading really is not for me after all!

 

[RahmanSL]

My trading “Hit & Run” logic (to me anywhere!):

Based on Charts:
GBP/USD
1.5665 18-Feb-10
1.5780 17-Feb-10
1.5805 17-Feb-10
1.5905 4-Feb-10
So, I’ll go in with 1 single large trade at around 1.5899 to 1.8902

EUR/USD
1.5058 23-Oct-09
1.5042 11-Nov-09
1.5140 25-Nov-09
1.5129 3-Dec-09
1.4576 13-Jan-10
1.4546 14-Jan-10
So, I’ll go in with 1 single large trade at around 1.5135 to 1.5138

This way, over weekends, I'll have time to go through the chart of each currencies pair and come out with some sort of statistics as above.

But, of course, the "perfect currencies pair set-up" might take time to materialize...if at all!

I know most (if not all) seasoned forex traders here at FPA are probably shaking their heads in disbelief and smiling at this foolish novice wannabe-trader, but I will give it a go...with Demo account no doubt. : )

All comments are most certainly welcome and appreciated.

 

[ernest8fingers]

Not everyday is bliss

RahmanSl - today I was in profit- maybe 80 pips or so (between 2 accounts a total 600 bucks) The day before that-down about 35 pips(more than 450 dollar loss total) Not everyday is profitable. I learned thru experience not to brag about winning-EVER! Fate will intercede and smack you down a peg-ALWAYS! When I trade- I dont use ANY Indicators-only CURRENT price action near areas of S/R as displayed on a 1hour candlestick Chart. I think my most valuable lesson in Forex was when I 1st started and lost a few thousand dollars-fast. That lesson forced me to sober up to the fact I was not ready to play in this sandbox-YET! I used my limited intellect and discovered my "edge". Trading Demo accounts has its worth-to a limit though. Until you have "skin" in the game-you wont "really" know how the game is played-and won. Today-I was trading the Eur/Usd and this pair was LONG most of the day. Long term it is SOLIDLY SHORT. Knowing this I waited to make my move(waited for this pair to approach its high of yesterday)This happened around noon PST(1.3685?). I went short(around 1.3676) and hit this trade for better than 60 pips. This knowledge only comes with time(experience). The reason I traded the Eur/Usd is because it climbed way higher and faster than the other majors I trade(Gbp-Aud). That means it held the most probability of the greatest retrace(and the best spread). It worked this time. Of course I closed this trade less than 1 hour later as I dont want this open trade over the weekend(I think it will actually go higher over the weekend). I also remove profits ASAP into my bank account. Only then do I consider the trade profitable. There is no "right" way to trade Forex-only winning and losing. And if you ever meet anyone that ALWAYS wins-you have just met a liar. Good luck and remember my favorite author's words-" fear is the mind killer". Lose the fear-and the profits will follow.

 

[RahmanSL]

Ernest8fingers,

Reading your post a few times really inspired me even more to try out my trading style.

Until I can get a very good grasp of market movements like you do, I will stay on the sideline until almost all of my criteria are met before executing a trade. This might mean not being able to trade daily, but that’s okay as long as I can get the profits that would satisfy me.

Yesterday, you had posted that you had shorted the EUR/USD at 1.3676 and locked in profits with an OCO.
80 pips gains on the EUR/USD is a very good trade indeed. Well done!
I, on the other hand, would not have made that trade as, based on my “chart”, I can only go in at around 1.5135. So that is the most glaring difference between us right now, which is the experience.

Bragging on winnings? What’s the point in that? Just make profits! But it’s good to read successful trades though, as it gives someone the inspiration to carry on….especially for those who have lost out.

I am still riding that EUR/GBP 8.0 lot trade which is at 0.8932 (a mere 28 pips?) but with a usd3,416.00 profits. In a real trade, I would probably had it closed out at 0.8937 with a usd2,803.89 which is a 56.07% profits from usd5k.
Yesterday experience jolted me into thinking that perhaps this should be my trading strategy. Wait for that “set-up” to show and then hit it with 1 large trade. But I’ll have to wait it out to Monday and see how that fared through the weekend which might reinforced my strategy conviction or totally destroy that illusion.

To me, WTI Oil is good at the usd70 and below mark, while Gold is good at usd1,181 and over mark. My logic is that cheap oil is a thing of the past, and Gold cannot or should not appreciate any further than that mark as it is a consumer commodity too.
For currencies, I will stick to trading Short (correct? i.e. Sell) as no Government wants their currencies to be overly valued for trade reasons, and so most currencies will not cross too much over the highest peak.

Oh well, I still have a long way to go towards being a consistent and profitable trader, and by end March 2010, if I find myself going nowhere, I might as well call it a day and just remain on the sideline.

Always winning trades?? Even I as a Newbie realize by now that is not possible at all. I did have winners on one of my Demo accounts for 3 straight days, but soon as I began to think I can take bigger risk with bigger profits, that account got wiped out.
Lesson learned: Never trade with more than 3 or 4 positions at any one time, and never ever leave open positions without setting SL.

Fear of losing?? I though we traders are supposed to abide by rule number 1: Never play with money you cannot afford to loss!

 

[Stony]

RahmanSL,

don´t forget one crucial fact: Demotrading means nothing. As soon as you start trading with real money, you´ll see that it is impossible to apply "demo-strategies" to live trading. So I suggest: go live with small money and develop you strategies live! And I predict: you´ll get much worse results than in demotrading. But that is quite normal.

 

[RahmanSL]

Stony,

Ok, seems like every seasoned traders’ remarks and advices are exactly the same as yours and there is a damn good reason for it.

In fact, I’ve just now PM fxfrench to PM me regarding signing up a Live account with FXopen and fxfrench as my IB.
But, I will still try out my “strategy” on Demo until end of March 2010 before going Live.

You and the rest of the guys here have not commented on my “strategy” on trading currencies pair based on historical charts high.

Do you think that strategy will work?

I have already started compiling chart history on GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, GBP/JPY, AND EUR/GBP. I am seeing some sort of pattern there but am still uncertain just how they correlate.

I’ll start on historical charts on the low side of these same currencies pairs soon. Maybe from all these data, I might just make some sense out of them and have an inkling of just why and how these currencies pair is either way up there or down there. Possibly, I might have to dig up some news item on those dates too in order to see what had happened to make these currencies moved the way they did.

Sounds like a lot of work to me and I don’t even know if I will get the time to do all that.

 

[Forexwatchman]

And this is why the CFTC feels they need to over-regulate a perfectly legit free market place as it stands now. I say do as you please, it's your money and you are the one making the calls with it. I hope you do hit it rich and write a book about it! Just promise me that if you go broke you won't write the CFTC to tell them this would have never happened if your leverage wasn't so "unfairly" high.

 

[RahmanSL]

Forexwatchman,

Nope, I would not go complaining to the CFTC or anyone, for that matter, If I do blow my forex account, and nor would I write a book about my successes if it worked out. Hit it Rich?..hehehe..if you only know, my friend!

I make my decision and I will face the consequences.

Right now, all I would like to know is, does anyone trade this “strategy” at all.
Ok, one way to find out is to try it out; right? Subject it to the acid test!

Cheers!

 

[RahmanSL]

Is it better to have an ECN, STP, or Market Maker for better execution of trades?

Ok, I have to post a Niewbie question which senior traders should be able to help.

Is it better to have an ECN, STP, or Market Maker for better execution of trades?

Spread wise, ECN is of course better, but full trade volume might not be accepted nor fulfilled; correct?
STP fixed spread is better than Market Maker, but is higher than ECN. Do they fill all trades with few re-quotes and slippages?
Market Makers spreads are of course much higher than ECN and STP, plus they do trade against their clients to make more money. Possibly, I assume, there will be many re-quotes and slippages. Do they fulfill all trades?

Advises & recommendation on the above would be very much appreciated.

Thank you.

 

[Eric Alyea]

I never passed up a good fight..... let’s go!!!!

I never passed up a good fight..... let’s go!!!!

How and WHY did my name come up in this????
What a rabble rouser. I never passed up a good fight though..... let’s go!!!!

#1 Strategy, Don’t drink beer and post!!!

#2 Back test your....What are you doing again???? You can use 10 years of history and you just wak off on..?? What you imagine you see in front of you.?

#3 Listen to Ricex, Stony, ernest8fingers, and Pharaoh every once in a while. I’m still a Newbie leave me out.

You want strategy here is strategy.
(I have to figure this Out... I have a Pic/link... (i'll fix it)
{edit insert}

#4 Hanashi (let go 512), 4th under the 7th chapter “Kawari”(Changing 257)
from one of the most difficult of Japanese Strategies to understand. It doesn’t mean surrender, or give up it means “Let go” that is to say you have to let go of “Your Idea” of what is suppose to happen and go with the flow of what is happening.

{edit insert)

I wrote it in Japanese just to make you work for it.
{edit insert}

You said, Don’t get technical. Well yes, let’s do. Just the chart’s no fundamental’s.
I haven’t traded this pair but since your waking your weenie over it. And just to piss Lawyer’s off on the week end lets look.
(I am an armature listen to nothing I say)
Square 1
EUR/GBP
Eye balling it.....(I have a template)(disclaimer, do your own Sh*t, disclaimer)
Time period:
“1day”. 10-29-09 to 2-27-10 R .89270
S .87684
“3 hour”. 2-12-10 2-27-10 R .87840
S .86850
“1 hour” 2-22-10 2-27-10 R .88870
S .87820
“30 min” 2-25-10 2-27-10 R .88950
S .87850
You make your money in the S-3/R-3 retracement range.

There are some super nerd troll’s/banker’s in middle earth that hack your computer just to see what numbers you like and as the troll/banker’s they are "they" undermine you so your number doesn’t "hit". Think like them and go conservative for the pip win.
“Don’t stand on the line. Pick a side an go for the conservative win”

Don’t use my name again!!!

You need to buy a “yo-yo” Duncan YoYo - The Original World's #1 so you have something to do.
Me, I wash dishes and clean the yard.

Good luck to you.