What's your view/opinion on today's market movements?

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,536


Hi fellow FPA members

As we face each daily trading day, it would be nice to have personal opinions from fellow FPA members on probable daily market directions.

Please post your opinion on any probable trades that you think would make a fairly to excellent trade. BUT, of course, these are not specified trades and members are free to take or not to take these trade(s).

For starters, I think the EUR/USD has been max out for bears....and even if it makes more crazy attempts to make the 1.4 levels, it will be hard pressed to succeed due to figures, particularly in Germany, coming out below expectation .
Any better than expected figures coming out of the US today & tomorrow will shoot down the EUR/USD faster than a spitfire.

So, yes, I am bearish on EUR/USD from the 1.376 and above levels for today and possibly for tomorrow too.
 

dkami

Sergeant
Messages
749
This is more of medium term trade (purely technical) but I'm bullish on AUDNZD and buying dips for the retrace targeting up to 50fib;)

This is going against strong down trend on MN so not for the faint hearted:D

P.S. I'll short scalp EU @ 1.3956 for the initial bounce off my W1 resistance
 
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RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,536
I check out your preferred pair AUD/NZD and, yes, it has potential. But I would take long position only at the 1.052 levels...to be safe:p

I am still favoring the fall of the EUR/USD....which it has been doing these past few hours....but if the data coming out of the US today (10 more minutes at time of writing) beats expectation, then that will really drive the EUR down to a more realistic 1.356 level.
Just my opinion;)
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,,,hmmm.... the data from the US for "Building Permits (MOM)" came in lower than expected. BUT instead of weakening USD, the EUR/USD actually dropped.....and yesterday, the German data was less than expected, and the EUR/USD rallied.

Does that makes sense to you???:confused:


I cannot help but to think that perhaps some big players got it wrong and, upon released of data showing below expectation, the big boys immediately dump their losing positions to cut their losses causing the market to react in the opposite direction.
Only after the big boys have unloaded most of their positions did market return to the direction that it was supposed to go.

I am still bearish on the EUR/USD as I do believe there is no valid reason for it to go that high as it has.

Another reason for the weaker dollar could very well have to do with economics, particularly cost of crude oil and natural gas since it would cost more for countries who have to pay in USD if the USD is stronger against other currencies.
I suspect as soon as most countries have sufficient stock, or have made & paid for their forward orders, the USD will "miraculously" rise from the ash....so to speak.
I think there is a lot of fine balancing acts going on behind the scene to keep world economies going.
 
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dkami

Sergeant
Messages
749
,,,hmmm.... the data from the US for "Building Permits (MOM)" came in lower than expected. BUT instead of weakening USD, the EUR/USD actually dropped.....and yesterday, the German data was less than expected, and the EUR/USD rallied.

Does that makes sense to you???:confused:
I think the whales would have been more interested in the FOMC Meeting
 

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,536
I think the whales would have been more interested in the FOMC Meeting
...ahhh, I see...whales beaching mystery is now solved!....they must be attempting to attend FOMC meetings.;)

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My yesterday's view on EUR/USD still stands and so is bearish on the pair for today.....unless, of course, crude oil & natural gas suddenly starts spewing out from Greek, Italian, & Spanish soil;)...

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Due to negative data coming out from China, and with Australia export to China at 20%, I am short term bearish on the AUD/USD for today.
 
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RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,536
Well, the Italian PMI came in worst than expected....as I have expected....and that drove the EUR back somewhat.
Now, if the German PMI disappoint expectation (in another 15 minutes or so at time of posting), that would be the brick that will sink the EUR down to the 1.36 levels....BUT I am not taking any more chances for the day and have closed ALL my shorts on EUR/USD in profits:)....


As for the AUD/USD, I believe, in addition to increased unemployment figures, it will be weighted down by China negative growth data for at least into next week. So, I am still short on that pair.
 

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,536
I notice some traders are shorting the AUD/USD ahead of key economic data due from the US in 23 minutes or so from now. Did they get some inside information before these data are announced????:confused:

I noticed the same thing happening earlier on today when the EUR/USD was shorted ahead of key economic data coming out from Italy and Germany.....and both came in below expectation...hmmmm....easy money for some privileged ones!
 

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,536
Hi Rahman
Those who have sold AUD/USD did well. I am on the wrong side though...
You went in long???....Why??

With no key economic news coming from China until early next month, I will continue to short the AUD/USD on the rise.....closing out some in profits but leaving 2-3 short positions taken at the 0.899 levels for possible TP at 0.879.....but if I hear anything un-nerving from the US, I will close out all positions to be on the safe side.
 

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,536
Today, I will continue with shorting the AUD/USD on the rise......closing & taking some profits as they arises, but leaving those at the highest levels for possible ride down to 0.879

....will also take some shorts on EUR/USD above 1.3775 levels.
 
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