WaveRider
Master Sergeant
- Messages
- 350
The ... is the real attention grabber. EA's can work, can't they? We are greedy people. I believe everything I say but I would like anyone to challenge my reasoning.
Theoretically, I might make a billion dollars this week by doing nothing but letting software trade for me. In theory that is true. I would gladly pay this guy $99 to find out if that is possible. Because I am an intelligent consumer I will read reviews (that are on his site) and choose the best one. Well his didn't work but I will try this other guy. Think of it, isn't it worth paying $100 for a billion dollar pay off? That's a good investment.
The lapse in logic about EA's is if you or I made an EA that worked, neither you nor I would sell it. End of story. We could stop there since that is an insurmountable fact.
Selling an EA is a profit making venture that requires a team of programmers, web developers, a marketing strategy and customer service. That's like owning, then selling the golden goose but being happy to be the goose groomer for a few bucks a month. That's bad business. Unless the goose doesn't lay golden eggs after all. Then selling a goose that theoretically might lay a golden egg is a good deal because I can be the goose groomer for a few bucks a month. Now that's good business. Sell a dream. Hey, you never know.
What about strategies that trade near certainties like the Sunday gap or that trade the weekly pivot point? Sive Morten says that's a 70-80% trade certainty. Cachinga! But if the gap is 60 pips, the market can easily go 200 pips the wrong way before it comes back to close the gap. When do you bail out for the inevitable 20-30% that won't go your way? That math will destroy your account. I mean that math does in fact destroy people's accounts. And ther are EA's that trade that way destroying peoples' accounts as we speak.
Can an EA work? We might think of an EA as a tool, like a hammer or a shovel. It works when a person makes it work. It is an advisor. It is not a decision maker. From what I have read and experienced, there are no leave it alone EA's. Sorry to burst that bubble, for all the would be suckers. All EA's have to be tinkered with, directed, turned on and off and a real person with a real brain is the actual decision maker. Not optimized. Tinkered with and directed. Because of that, it is insane to use an EA that you don't understand the logic of very intimately. That's really any commercial EA. Spend the $99 on lottery tickets. At least you'll know a lot faster that you didn't win.
EA's that are most likely to work? One's you develop yourself or have intimate knowledge of the strategy. It would have to be based on a strategy that you know works. If you knew that, you would already be a pretty good trader and not need an EA anyway. Anyone who uses an EA should know enough source code to understand what it's doing and how to tinker with it. Still it will never be a leave alone EA.
Here's an example. Because bankers and other people are on vacation in December, the market is really sleepy, then everyone comes to work in January and wants to trade their brains out. January usually is a great trending month. Your December strategy would get killed in January and your January strategy would get killed in December. An EA won't know this. A well trending EA on in January will likely do very well, but only in January. And not every January trends as well as others. Again a person would have to make that call.
Okay. Pick me apart. Tell me why I'm wrong. Or agree.
Theoretically, I might make a billion dollars this week by doing nothing but letting software trade for me. In theory that is true. I would gladly pay this guy $99 to find out if that is possible. Because I am an intelligent consumer I will read reviews (that are on his site) and choose the best one. Well his didn't work but I will try this other guy. Think of it, isn't it worth paying $100 for a billion dollar pay off? That's a good investment.
The lapse in logic about EA's is if you or I made an EA that worked, neither you nor I would sell it. End of story. We could stop there since that is an insurmountable fact.
Selling an EA is a profit making venture that requires a team of programmers, web developers, a marketing strategy and customer service. That's like owning, then selling the golden goose but being happy to be the goose groomer for a few bucks a month. That's bad business. Unless the goose doesn't lay golden eggs after all. Then selling a goose that theoretically might lay a golden egg is a good deal because I can be the goose groomer for a few bucks a month. Now that's good business. Sell a dream. Hey, you never know.
What about strategies that trade near certainties like the Sunday gap or that trade the weekly pivot point? Sive Morten says that's a 70-80% trade certainty. Cachinga! But if the gap is 60 pips, the market can easily go 200 pips the wrong way before it comes back to close the gap. When do you bail out for the inevitable 20-30% that won't go your way? That math will destroy your account. I mean that math does in fact destroy people's accounts. And ther are EA's that trade that way destroying peoples' accounts as we speak.
Can an EA work? We might think of an EA as a tool, like a hammer or a shovel. It works when a person makes it work. It is an advisor. It is not a decision maker. From what I have read and experienced, there are no leave it alone EA's. Sorry to burst that bubble, for all the would be suckers. All EA's have to be tinkered with, directed, turned on and off and a real person with a real brain is the actual decision maker. Not optimized. Tinkered with and directed. Because of that, it is insane to use an EA that you don't understand the logic of very intimately. That's really any commercial EA. Spend the $99 on lottery tickets. At least you'll know a lot faster that you didn't win.
EA's that are most likely to work? One's you develop yourself or have intimate knowledge of the strategy. It would have to be based on a strategy that you know works. If you knew that, you would already be a pretty good trader and not need an EA anyway. Anyone who uses an EA should know enough source code to understand what it's doing and how to tinker with it. Still it will never be a leave alone EA.
Here's an example. Because bankers and other people are on vacation in December, the market is really sleepy, then everyone comes to work in January and wants to trade their brains out. January usually is a great trending month. Your December strategy would get killed in January and your January strategy would get killed in December. An EA won't know this. A well trending EA on in January will likely do very well, but only in January. And not every January trends as well as others. Again a person would have to make that call.
Okay. Pick me apart. Tell me why I'm wrong. Or agree.
