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Wkly FX 4 Your Eyes Only

Discussion in 'Personal Trade Journals' started by kasim ijelu, Jul 29, 2012.

  1. kasim ijelu

    kasim ijelu Private, 1st Class

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    GBP
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    Timeless Fx

    Twitter: TimelessFx

    Net Lending to Individuals: Monday, 4:30. The indicator has been very steady in recent months, with a previous reading of 1.3 billion pounds. However, the markets are forecasting a sharp drop for this reading, down to 0.8B.
    CBI Realized Sales: Monday, 6:00. The indicator sparkled in June, with a reading of 42 points. The market estimate for July is a still-respectable 18 points..
    GfK Consumer Confidence: Monday, 19:01. Consumer confidence has been very weak, with a reading of -29 points in June. Little change is expected in the July reading.
    BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 19:01. This consumer index posted a 1.1% gain in June, and the markets will be hoping for a similar increase in July.
    Nationwide HPI: Wednesday, 2:00. This housing index was a major disappointment in June, declining by 0.6%. The market forecast calls for another decline, this time of 0.1%.
    Halifax HPI: 1st-8th. This index was well above the market forecast in July, and another strong release would be bullish for the pound.

    Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 4:30. This PMI came in slightly below the 50 point line in the previous reading, and the markets are expecting a similar reading this time around.
    Construction PMI:

    Thursday, 4:30. Construction PMI disappointed the markets, as the previous reading falling below the 50 point line for the first time since January 2010. The market estimate for the July readings stands at 48.3 points.
    Asset Purchase Facility: Thursday, 7:00. The BOE raised QE last time around to 375 billion. No change is expected this month.
    Official Bank Rate:

    Thursday, 7:00. Markets are expecting the key interest rate to be held at 0.50% this month.
    Services PMI:

    Friday, 4:30. This PMI has stayed above the 50 point level for a extended period, indicating ongoing expansion in the services sector. No significant change is expected in the July reading.
    *

    I am bearish on GBP/USD.

    Since June, GBP/USD has had difficulty holding onto any gains for an extended period. The British economy is sputtering, and investors may seek the safe haven of the US dollar if the turmoil in the Euro-zone continues.


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    Timeless Fx
     

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