WorldWatch - The Current Individual Country RiskLine Report for November 2012

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Africa
Algeria	Reasonable economic prospects and a predictable political environment stabilise the short-term risk outlook.
Angola	The outlook remains positive but a new oil law may prove problematic.
Botswana	The economy's high dependence on the mining industry presents a significant risk.
Cameroon	New infrastructure projects should boost medium-term economic growth.
Congo, D.R.	The political situation remains fragile and uncertain.
Cote d’Ivoire	There is a rising threat of another coup.
Ethiopia	The political outlook remains stable amid a change of leadership.
Gabon	Political risk is heightened by the opposition leader's return from exile.
Ghana	The economy weakens further, and political tensions rise ahead of the upcoming elections.
Kenya	The economic outlook is set to improve slightly despite some major weaknesses.
Libya	Political and internal instability continue to undermine the risk outlook.
Malawi	Discontent about rising prices could affect the government's popularity.
Mauritius	The short-term risk outlook remains under significant downward pressure.
Morocco	A weak first half performance points to lower economic growth in 2012.
Mozambique	Strong economic prospects underpin a stable outlook, but political risk is increasing.
Namibia	The economy records strong growth amid improved export competitiveness.
Nigeria	Extensive flooding has lowered short-term growth prospects.
Senegal	The new president undertakes a major cabinet reshuffle.
Sierra Leone	Rapid expansion of the mining sector underpins a buoyant economic outlook.
South Africa	D&B downgrades South Africa's country risk rating amid a wave of industrial strikes.
Sudan	The risk outlook should improve as oil production and exports look set to resume.
Tanzania	Strong economic growth continues to underpin a stable risk outlook.
Tunisia	The economic recovery continues but important downside risks remain.
Uganda	Lower inflation allows the central bank to loosen its monetary stance.
Zambia	Strong investor confidence is confirmed by the successful issue of a Eurobond.
Zimbabwe	A number of key milestones need to be achieved ahead of the next election.

Asia Pacific
Afghanistan	Political and security risks remain severe.
Australia	Despite some good sectoral employment, consumers remain cautious.
Bangladesh	Political and economic risks continue to escalate.
Cambodia	The small, open economy sees a sharp slowdown amid waning global demand.
China	The government looks set to hit its annual growth target for 2013 despite headwinds.
Fiji	The economy remains relatively buoyant despite disruptive floods and the global slowdown.
Hong Kong	The relationship between the public and the new chief executive is still deteriorating.
India	The government finally presses ahead with a number of long-awaited economic reforms.
Indonesia	The country's commodity-heavy external sector takes a hard hit from China's slowdown.
Japan	The political outlook for the ruling party is poor ahead of the 2013 election.
Korea (South)	The export-oriented manufacturing sector continues to struggle due to the global downturn.
Malaysia	Exports experience their fastest decline since the height of the financial crisis.
Myanmar	The government tries to press ahead with reforms to boost foreign investment and the private sector.
Nepal	Politics enters another period of acute uncertainty.
New Zealand	The deteriorating economic trend continues amid weak economic fundamentals.
Pakistan	Political tensions ease following an agreement between the government and the judiciary.
Papua New Guinea	The economy begins to slow as global demand softens and commodity prices ease.
Philippines	Although exports have begun to slump, domestic demand should remain relatively robust.
Singapore	Extended weakness in Europe and the slowdown in China weigh on external trade.
Sri Lanka	After overheating in 2011, the economy sees easing levels of growth.
Taiwan	Economic growth shows a surprising quarterly recovery.
Thailand	The overall outlook is deteriorating amid ongoing external and domestic challenges.
Vietnam	After a lacklustre first half of the year, the economy has gained some traction.

Eastern Europe
Albania	Growth will be limited over the forecast period but the economy should remain reasonably stable.
Azerbaijan	Oil production remains weak but household consumption should receive a boost.
Belarus	The danger of medium-term economic overheating remains.
Bosnia & Herzegovina	Political risk increases as the country makes no progress towards EU accession.
Bulgaria	Private consumption seems to be losing momentum.
Croatia	The growth forecast is revised downwards amid faltering domestic and external demand.
Czech Republic	The governing coalition risks losing the no-confidence vote over the 2013 budget.
Estonia	Forward-looking indicators are weak as the economy continues to slow.
Georgia	The ruling party is defeated in the parliamentary election but the new administration faces challenges.
Hungary	IMF credit line talks end unsuccessfully once again.
Kazakhstan	Economic growth will slow in 2012 but regain momentum in 2013 on account of rising oil production.
Kyrgyz Republic	Gold production recovers, but political pressure to nationalise the main producer has risen.
Latvia	Economic activity still seems to be growing relatively fast.
Lithuania	Growth in Q3 outperforms expectations but political tensions are increasing.
Macedonia	The euro-zone crisis tips the country into recession.
Poland	The government wins a confidence vote and outlines future policies.
Romania	The economy avoids a third quarter of contraction.
Russian Federation	Improvements in the manufacturing climate could be short-lived.
Serbia	A number of negative external factors undermine the economy.
Slovak Republic	The government's 2013 budget introduces significant revisions to the tax laws.
Slovenia	Financial sector instability clouds the country's outlook.
Tajikistan	The short-term economic outlook is clouded by a number of negative factors.
Turkmenistan	Buoyant gas activity continues to drive strong economic growth.
Ukraine	Economic activity continues to slow amid poor exports.
Uzbekistan	The country remains a growth leader in the former Soviet space.

Middle East
Bahrain	The short-term risk outlook remains under downward pressure.
Egypt	The economic and political outlook remains highly uncertain.
Iran	A collapse of the unofficial exchange rates triggers anti-government demonstrations.
Iraq	Despite serious political and security risks, the economy continues to show brisk growth.
Israel	An early election is likely to consolidate the government's grip on power.
Jordan	D&B downgrades Jordan's country risk rating amid continuing political end economic developments.
Kuwait	D&B downgrades Kuwait's country risk rating in response to escalating political and social tensions.
Lebanon	The Syrian conflict undermines the risk outlook in Lebanon.
Oman	The promise of sustained growth supports an improving risk outlook.
Qatar	The economy remains in robust health as it shifts from production to consumption-led growth.
Saudi Arabia	The economy starts to slow as non-oil growth falls.
Syria	Payment risks are extremely elevated amid falling FX reserves.
UAE	The property sector begins to show signs of life.
Yemen	The risk environment remains under downward pressure amid ongoing internal instability.

The Americas
Argentina	Investor confidence is eroded amid new currency concerns.
Bolivia	Despite a return to global credit markets, improvements are needed in the investment climate.
Brazil	A key interest rate falls as the central bank seeks to boost growth.
Canada	Economic indicators present a sombre picture, despite favourable job growth.
Chile	Commercial banks' profitability falls due to higher costs.
Colombia	Measures to reduce company taxes are aimed at lowering unemployment.
Costa Rica	The public perception of corruption creates widespread disaffection.
Cuba	Still-weak economic growth reflects ongoing retrenchment in the state sector.
Dominican Republic	The outlook is for continued sluggish growth over the forecast period.
Ecuador	Strong oil receipts help to underpin the stable economic outlook.
El Salvador	Slow economic growth looks set to continue amid weak exports and low investment.
Guatemala	The government backtracks on a proposed mining law that had stoked fears of resource nationalism.
Honduras	Deteriorating public finances increase concerns over the risk outlook.
Jamaica	The short-term risk outlook is under downward pressure amid weakened economic prospects.
Mexico	The labour market sees its biggest overhaul for over forty years.
Nicaragua	The economy is performing well despite the global slowdown.
Panama	Construction activity continues to underpin rapid economic growth.
Paraguay	The central bank adopts a neutral monetary bias as inflationary pressures remain under control.
Peru	Slowing global growth and commodity price issues still weigh on the country's external accounts.
Trinidad & Tobago	The central bank cuts interest rates to boost domestic demand.
USA	Economic indicators signal slow but relatively stable growth ahead.
Uruguay	Increased domestic prices drive inflation even higher.
Venezuela	Hugo Chavez wins a third presidential term but structural imbalances threaten his economic paradigm.

Western Europe
Austria	An economic slowdown weighs on payment and credit risks.
Belgium	The economy stagnates as domestic and external demand continue to flag.
Cyprus	D&B downgrades Cyprus' country risk rating amid persistent downbeat economic developments.
Denmark	Business and consumer confidence remains low as the country faces a mild recession.
Finland	Economic activity is sluggish and the outlook is negative.
France	The government pushes ahead with controversial tax hikes.
Germany	Economic headwinds are increasing, especially in the motor industry.
Greece	Soaring unemployment exacerbates the country's economic plight amid social tensions and rising political risk.
Iceland	Despite signs of resilience, the economy faces growing downside risks.
Ireland	Although more resilient than some other euro-zone members, the economy is, at best, stagnating.
Italy	Berlusconi's threat to withdraw support for the government increases political risk.
Luxembourg	The economy has shown little sign of recovery since the downturn earlier in the year.
Malta	Government consumption and net exports contribute to a quarterly expansion in economic activity.
Netherlands	Good progress in coalition talks has positive effects on political risk.
Norway	Record investments are expected in the oil and gas sector.
Portugal	Downbeat macroeconomic developments keep the risk profile under pressure.
Spain	The government appears to be waiting for the right time to submit a bailout request.
Sweden	The economy faces headwinds from the euro-zone debt crisis.
Switzerland	Business failures increase, while credit and payment risks are on the rise.
Turkey	Security issues stemming from the Syrian crisis weigh increasingly on the risk outlook.
United Kingdom	Stagnation bodes ill for the public finances, but inflation has eased.