WorldWatch - The Current Individual Country RiskLine Report for November 2012


4Xangels Representative
AlgeriaReasonable economic prospects and a predictable political environment stabilise the short-term risk outlook.
AngolaThe outlook remains positive but a new oil law may prove problematic.
BotswanaThe economy's high dependence on the mining industry presents a significant risk.
CameroonNew infrastructure projects should boost medium-term economic growth.
Congo, D.R.The political situation remains fragile and uncertain.
Cote d’IvoireThere is a rising threat of another coup.
EthiopiaThe political outlook remains stable amid a change of leadership.
GabonPolitical risk is heightened by the opposition leader's return from exile.
GhanaThe economy weakens further, and political tensions rise ahead of the upcoming elections.
KenyaThe economic outlook is set to improve slightly despite some major weaknesses.
LibyaPolitical and internal instability continue to undermine the risk outlook.
MalawiDiscontent about rising prices could affect the government's popularity.
MauritiusThe short-term risk outlook remains under significant downward pressure.
MoroccoA weak first half performance points to lower economic growth in 2012.
MozambiqueStrong economic prospects underpin a stable outlook, but political risk is increasing.
NamibiaThe economy records strong growth amid improved export competitiveness.
NigeriaExtensive flooding has lowered short-term growth prospects.
SenegalThe new president undertakes a major cabinet reshuffle.
Sierra LeoneRapid expansion of the mining sector underpins a buoyant economic outlook.
South AfricaD&B downgrades South Africa's country risk rating amid a wave of industrial strikes.
SudanThe risk outlook should improve as oil production and exports look set to resume.
TanzaniaStrong economic growth continues to underpin a stable risk outlook.
TunisiaThe economic recovery continues but important downside risks remain.
UgandaLower inflation allows the central bank to loosen its monetary stance.
ZambiaStrong investor confidence is confirmed by the successful issue of a Eurobond.
ZimbabweA number of key milestones need to be achieved ahead of the next election.

Asia Pacific
AfghanistanPolitical and security risks remain severe.
AustraliaDespite some good sectoral employment, consumers remain cautious.
BangladeshPolitical and economic risks continue to escalate.
CambodiaThe small, open economy sees a sharp slowdown amid waning global demand.
ChinaThe government looks set to hit its annual growth target for 2013 despite headwinds.
FijiThe economy remains relatively buoyant despite disruptive floods and the global slowdown.
Hong KongThe relationship between the public and the new chief executive is still deteriorating.
IndiaThe government finally presses ahead with a number of long-awaited economic reforms.
IndonesiaThe country's commodity-heavy external sector takes a hard hit from China's slowdown.
JapanThe political outlook for the ruling party is poor ahead of the 2013 election.
Korea (South) The export-oriented manufacturing sector continues to struggle due to the global downturn.
MalaysiaExports experience their fastest decline since the height of the financial crisis.
MyanmarThe government tries to press ahead with reforms to boost foreign investment and the private sector.
NepalPolitics enters another period of acute uncertainty.
New ZealandThe deteriorating economic trend continues amid weak economic fundamentals.
PakistanPolitical tensions ease following an agreement between the government and the judiciary.
Papua New GuineaThe economy begins to slow as global demand softens and commodity prices ease.
PhilippinesAlthough exports have begun to slump, domestic demand should remain relatively robust.
SingaporeExtended weakness in Europe and the slowdown in China weigh on external trade.
Sri LankaAfter overheating in 2011, the economy sees easing levels of growth.
TaiwanEconomic growth shows a surprising quarterly recovery.
ThailandThe overall outlook is deteriorating amid ongoing external and domestic challenges.
VietnamAfter a lacklustre first half of the year, the economy has gained some traction.

Eastern Europe
AlbaniaGrowth will be limited over the forecast period but the economy should remain reasonably stable.
AzerbaijanOil production remains weak but household consumption should receive a boost.
BelarusThe danger of medium-term economic overheating remains.
Bosnia & HerzegovinaPolitical risk increases as the country makes no progress towards EU accession.
BulgariaPrivate consumption seems to be losing momentum.
CroatiaThe growth forecast is revised downwards amid faltering domestic and external demand.
Czech RepublicThe governing coalition risks losing the no-confidence vote over the 2013 budget.
EstoniaForward-looking indicators are weak as the economy continues to slow.
GeorgiaThe ruling party is defeated in the parliamentary election but the new administration faces challenges.
HungaryIMF credit line talks end unsuccessfully once again.
KazakhstanEconomic growth will slow in 2012 but regain momentum in 2013 on account of rising oil production.
Kyrgyz RepublicGold production recovers, but political pressure to nationalise the main producer has risen.
LatviaEconomic activity still seems to be growing relatively fast.
LithuaniaGrowth in Q3 outperforms expectations but political tensions are increasing.
MacedoniaThe euro-zone crisis tips the country into recession.
PolandThe government wins a confidence vote and outlines future policies.
RomaniaThe economy avoids a third quarter of contraction.
Russian FederationImprovements in the manufacturing climate could be short-lived.
SerbiaA number of negative external factors undermine the economy.
Slovak RepublicThe government's 2013 budget introduces significant revisions to the tax laws.
SloveniaFinancial sector instability clouds the country's outlook.
TajikistanThe short-term economic outlook is clouded by a number of negative factors.
TurkmenistanBuoyant gas activity continues to drive strong economic growth.
UkraineEconomic activity continues to slow amid poor exports.
UzbekistanThe country remains a growth leader in the former Soviet space.

Middle East
BahrainThe short-term risk outlook remains under downward pressure.
EgyptThe economic and political outlook remains highly uncertain.
IranA collapse of the unofficial exchange rates triggers anti-government demonstrations.
IraqDespite serious political and security risks, the economy continues to show brisk growth.
IsraelAn early election is likely to consolidate the government's grip on power.
JordanD&B downgrades Jordan's country risk rating amid continuing political end economic developments.
KuwaitD&B downgrades Kuwait's country risk rating in response to escalating political and social tensions.
LebanonThe Syrian conflict undermines the risk outlook in Lebanon.
OmanThe promise of sustained growth supports an improving risk outlook.
QatarThe economy remains in robust health as it shifts from production to consumption-led growth.
Saudi ArabiaThe economy starts to slow as non-oil growth falls.
SyriaPayment risks are extremely elevated amid falling FX reserves.
UAEThe property sector begins to show signs of life.
YemenThe risk environment remains under downward pressure amid ongoing internal instability.

The Americas
ArgentinaInvestor confidence is eroded amid new currency concerns.
BoliviaDespite a return to global credit markets, improvements are needed in the investment climate.
BrazilA key interest rate falls as the central bank seeks to boost growth.
CanadaEconomic indicators present a sombre picture, despite favourable job growth.
ChileCommercial banks' profitability falls due to higher costs.
ColombiaMeasures to reduce company taxes are aimed at lowering unemployment.
Costa RicaThe public perception of corruption creates widespread disaffection.
CubaStill-weak economic growth reflects ongoing retrenchment in the state sector.
Dominican RepublicThe outlook is for continued sluggish growth over the forecast period.
EcuadorStrong oil receipts help to underpin the stable economic outlook.
El SalvadorSlow economic growth looks set to continue amid weak exports and low investment.
GuatemalaThe government backtracks on a proposed mining law that had stoked fears of resource nationalism.
HondurasDeteriorating public finances increase concerns over the risk outlook.
JamaicaThe short-term risk outlook is under downward pressure amid weakened economic prospects.
MexicoThe labour market sees its biggest overhaul for over forty years.
NicaraguaThe economy is performing well despite the global slowdown.
PanamaConstruction activity continues to underpin rapid economic growth.
ParaguayThe central bank adopts a neutral monetary bias as inflationary pressures remain under control.
PeruSlowing global growth and commodity price issues still weigh on the country's external accounts.
Trinidad & TobagoThe central bank cuts interest rates to boost domestic demand.
USAEconomic indicators signal slow but relatively stable growth ahead.
UruguayIncreased domestic prices drive inflation even higher.
VenezuelaHugo Chavez wins a third presidential term but structural imbalances threaten his economic paradigm.

Western Europe
AustriaAn economic slowdown weighs on payment and credit risks.
BelgiumThe economy stagnates as domestic and external demand continue to flag.
CyprusD&B downgrades Cyprus' country risk rating amid persistent downbeat economic developments.
DenmarkBusiness and consumer confidence remains low as the country faces a mild recession.
FinlandEconomic activity is sluggish and the outlook is negative.
FranceThe government pushes ahead with controversial tax hikes.
GermanyEconomic headwinds are increasing, especially in the motor industry.
GreeceSoaring unemployment exacerbates the country's economic plight amid social tensions and rising political risk.
IcelandDespite signs of resilience, the economy faces growing downside risks.
IrelandAlthough more resilient than some other euro-zone members, the economy is, at best, stagnating.
ItalyBerlusconi's threat to withdraw support for the government increases political risk.
LuxembourgThe economy has shown little sign of recovery since the downturn earlier in the year.
MaltaGovernment consumption and net exports contribute to a quarterly expansion in economic activity.
NetherlandsGood progress in coalition talks has positive effects on political risk.
NorwayRecord investments are expected in the oil and gas sector.
PortugalDownbeat macroeconomic developments keep the risk profile under pressure.
SpainThe government appears to be waiting for the right time to submit a bailout request.
SwedenThe economy faces headwinds from the euro-zone debt crisis.
SwitzerlandBusiness failures increase, while credit and payment risks are on the rise.
TurkeySecurity issues stemming from the Syrian crisis weigh increasingly on the risk outlook.
United KingdomStagnation bodes ill for the public finances, but inflation has eased.