Your idea/view/opinion on JPY vs USD

[RahmanSL]

JPY/USD is at near historical high.
Obviously while that is good for Japanese exports, it's not so for imports and Japan does require a lot of raw material & fuel/oil.

Though drop in price of crude oil & gas are mostly received with cheers, Japan does not benefit very much from than since the Yen is so heavily depressed against the USD and those two commodities are priced in USD. Forward orders (if they indeed went into those deals) for oil & gas are probably priced over USD90. Of course Japan can draw against their USD reserves, but that would not benefit them much either.

So, what is Japan, and the US too (since they are Japan's largest economic partner, taking up 18% of Japanese exports, and supplies 8.5% of its imports) going to do about the weak Yen?

My view/opinion is that the Yen will probably hover around the 115 to 116 levels for the next month or so until Japan will have to step in to bring the currency down to around 111-113 levels. After that, I really do not know what the Japanese & the US are going to do to stabilize the currency.

Based on the above scenario, I think the JPY/USD would make a pretty good pair to short scalp on any meaningful rises, particularly at the 116 levels.

All ideas/views/opinions are most welcome!

 

[RahmanSL]

JPY/USD attempted to rally upwards back to the 116 levels but failed.....then it's attempting to go below 115 levels and, so far, has failed too.

With no economic news coming out from Japan & the US today, I really wonder where the currency pair will land up today.
With possibility of snap election in Japan due to probable no sales tax being implemented, this will be an interesting pair to watch this week, in the coming week, and weeks to come.

Any idea/view/opinion from any FPA members?

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello RahmanSL

Today's Wholesale Inventories m/m US 3pm (GMT) Low Impact data "Forecast" shows good for USD, and two JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m Med Impact data & PPI y/y Low Impact data both 11.50pm (GMT) "Forecast" shows bad for JPY, might just swing it in favor of your 116 target.

That's if the "Forecasts" are to be believed maybe best to wait and see.

Hope all is well at home and in family life

Good luck
Liz

 

[RahmanSL]

Hi Liz....family doing great...hope same with yours

I think the JPY/USD will probably attempt to go down to the 114 levels....take a breather (probably give a chance for Japanese importers to lock-in their orders at more desirable rate of exchange for the USD).....and then shoot for the 116 and maybe 117 levels.

For me, I will short scalp the pair on the high side...i.e 115, 116, 117 or even the 118 levels if it dare go there.
Anywhere, at time of posting, the pair barely get pass down below 115 level and then quickly went back up....so, anything is still very possible right now.

Hope your trading going well :

 

[RahmanSL]

Nothing meaningful & earth shattering data & news from Japan today.....JPY/USD attempted the 116 levels during Asian session but failed so far...... got to watch for that US Initial Jobless Claims, and if it's as expected, then it's safe short scalping the pair throughout today on any meaningful rises.
Pair might possibly go below 115 levels today....

Traders can make some decent daily profits short scalping the pair, BUT DON'T GET GREEDY by placing large size trades. ALWAYS be on the alert for unexpected news that might or will affect the currency pair....have Bloomberg and/or CNBC and other live news services tuned in while you trade.

 

[RahmanSL]

The USD/JPY is just too heavily oversold and market is probably undecided how best to shake off (like a buckling rodeo) most of those positions before going down to the 114 levels where it rightfully belong for now.
My personal view is 110-111 being the more appropriate levels for the USD/JPY.

 

[RahmanSL]

I supposed it's safe to surmise that the Japanese PM Abe is not a forex trader nor a member of the FPA.....would be most helpful for him to post his views & opinions here

 

[RahmanSL]

Weeell, the two economic data from the US which, I presumed, every trader who are shorts on the USD/JPY depended on (some might even be praying for) to come in worst than expected (i.e Continuing Jobless Claims:2.39M vs exp 2.35M, and Initial Jobless Claims: 290.00K vs exp 280.00K) DID.
BUT that barely made the pair to move downwards and certainly didn't get down passed the 115 levels.

...hmmmm...the oversold must me humongous and can't be buckled off so easily. So, we just have to wait for the US market opening bell and see what will happen....i.e if any reaction at all.

My personal view is that the currency pair might simple bite the bullet, shoot downwards, and then (after giving Japans importers a breather) beat a hasty retreat up to the 115-116 levels again. That is my view which, as a matter of course, might not happen at all

 

[RahmanSL]

Observing USD/JPY behaviors from start of US opening bell, I get the feeling that market is still attempting to shake off some "shorties"....to take out those faint hearted traders, to make them feel uneasy and even panicking them into closing out their shorts....then wham, it head south to 114 levels.

BUT, of course, I could be dead wrong!

Any opinion(s) from anybody here???

 

[RahmanSL]

It went to 116.4 levels and then back down to the 115 levels which is now very obviously strong resistance level.

At this rate of exchange, sushi & imported whiskey/beer lovers...not to mention fuel & oil.... will not be happy with high prices and Abe will have to do something to bring down the Yen somewhat.

Perhaps a sneaky currency attack (Pearl harbor style) just before market closes today or early next week? That would give a brief window of opportunity to Japanese importers to launch a barrage & armada of orders & forward orders before their currency go to the 117-118 or even (as some Analyst predict) 120 levels.

Or, in cohort with the US, the three key economic US data come in worst than expected....especially for retail Sales (MoM) and.....voila....Yen appreciated against the USD and everybody is happy, happy, happy.....problem temporarily solved....and legally too ....and, as a matter of course, a bunch of the inner-circle people make a few tons of money in the forex market to boot ...yes, indeed, happy, happy, happy.....but I supposed not so "happy" for those who are "long" in expectation of the predicted 117 to 120 levels now